546
FXAK69 PAFG 052302
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKDT Sat Apr 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers across the Western Interior and North Slope today as
a front moves slowly northeast. Warm weather continues in the
Central and Eastern Interior cooling from the west Sunday. Snow
showers return to the Central Interior Monday along with a quick
drop in temperatures Sunday evening with highs Monday once again
below freezing for much of the Central Interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Snow showers today north of Tanana expand further east Sunday
 night and Monday as scattered to the Central and Northeastern
 Interior. Generally an inch or less of accumulation is expected
 except along the southern slopes of the Brooks Range where 1 to 3
 inches of total snow is expected.
-Moderate southerly gap flow through the Alaska Range passes
 through Sunday night. Winds generally 30 to 40 with occasional
 gusts up to 55 mph.
-Warm weather today with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s from
 Fairbanks east. Temperatures fall a bit tomorrow with highs in
 the mid to upper 40s and they fall quite a bit Monday with highs
 below or near freezing for everywhere west of Tok.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Snow in the Western Interior today clears up tonight. Another 2
 to 5 inches expected from today with higher amounts expected
 further north and the highest amounts in the southern Brooks
 Range.
-Northwesterly winds continue along the coast through Sunday night
 which weaken Monday and shift northerly Monday night.
-A weak system brings light snow to St. Lawrence Island and
 western parts of the YK Delta Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-Snow across the North Slope tonight through Sunday night with 2
 to 5 inches of accumulation expected from Point Barrow west and
 up to 2 inches possible for communities east of Point Barrow.
-Winds east of Point Barrow become light tonight and then shift
 westerly and increase late Sunday. The strongest of these will be
 near Barter Island Monday morning with gusts up to 30mph. Winds
 west of Point Barrow shift northeast today and weaken through
 Monday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Broad troughing begins to overcome an eastern ridge allowing snow
and colder temperatures to slowly move across the state now
through Monday. Models continue to resolve this change poorly with
the GFS and NAM favoring a more northerly solution for the center
of an embedded low within this troughing and the ECMWF favoring a
more southerly solution. We`ve decided to favor a more moderate
solution and are leaning more towards the Canadian model solution.

A band of snow between the broad troughing to the west and the
ridge to the east is currently over the Western Interior,
stretching from Anvik to Shungnak and is producing intermittent
snow showers on the North Slope today. This band moves to the
north and east tonight bringing additional snowfall to the central
Brooks Range and to the North Slope through Sunday night. The
moisture in this band begins to wrap around an upper level low on
the eastern edge of the trough Sunday night into Monday and will
pull cooler temperatures and some scattered snow showers into the
Interior Monday. Temperatures are expected to fall quite rapidly
with this cold front from highs in the 40s Sunday to highs near or
below 0 Monday behind the front. Light scattered snow showers will
move across the Interior with this front bringing a chance for
light snow up to 1 and a half inches to Fairbanks with greater
chances at higher elevations north and east of Fairbanks.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Broad troughing continues through the week with generally benign
weather expected. Light snow showers are possible across the
region, but details are too uncertain to give any indication of
exactly where or when. Accumulations are expected to be very
light. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803-808-809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-852-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858-859.
&&

$$

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