206
FXAK69 PAFG 162227
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A bit more active weather will be moving into the West Coast this
weekend as a low provides showers to the West Coast and Western
Interior. In the Interior, an upper low is bringing very light
rain showers to the Yukon/Tanana Uplands and Upper Tanana Valley
through tomorrow. The North Slope will be seeing a diurnal trend
of fog overnight and clearing during the day today and tomorrow,
then onshore flow returns tomorrow afternoon with stratus, fog and
breezy conditions returning.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Dry in the Central Interior with sunny skies through tomorrow.

- Isolated showers in the Eastern Interior through tomorrow with
  an isolated thunderstorm in the higher terrain possible Sunday.

- More substantial thunderstorm risks each afternoon next week.

- Temperatures above average through the weekend, then a slight
  cool down into the 50s to near 60 on Monday/Tuesday with a
  warming trend afterwards.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Low pressure brings showers to the West Coast and Western
  Interior this afternoon through the weekend.

- 0.10-0.25 inches of rain expected. Some snow may mix in from the
  Western Brooks Range to Seward Peninsula Mtns Saturday night
  into Sunday.

- Cooling trend this weekend, then warming next weekend to
  near/above average once again.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Diurnal fog will burn off this afternoon, then re-develop
  tonight with weak offshore flow.

- Onshore flow returns tomorrow afternoon/evening with breezy
  northerly winds, stratus and fog through Sunday.

- Low impact weather with seasonable temps and showers over the
  Brooks Range for the next several days.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Weak dynamics overall with a broad area of low pressure around
1005 mb stationed from Bristol Bay to the Gulf. Weak high pressure
is over the Western and Central Interior keeping it clear and dry
with a weak area of low pressure in the Eastern Interior providing
light rain showers. A 1024 mb high over the Anzhu Islands is
moving east through the Chukchi Sea and will bring onshore flow to
the North Slope tomorrow afternoon/evening. A high south of the
Canadian Archipelago extends west to the Beaufort Sea. This all
basically means the weather is quiet with no significant impacts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This afternoon is dry again for most of the Interior of AK with
the lone exception being some light showers over the AK Range and
the Yukon-Tanana Uplands. Northeast winds turn more northerly
today and are 10 to 15 mph at most, with min RH back into the low
20 percent range with only a couple of spots reaching 18-19% from
Fairbanks to Eielson. An upper trough will shift into the W Coast
and W Interior bringing light wetting rains tomorrow and Sunday,
and increasing chances for showers for the Central Interior Sunday
afternoon. It will be cool and damp out west this weekend as the
cool front shifts inland after today. A wet thunderstorm is
possible over the Interior terrain Sunday afternoon. Greater
chances for storms arise on Monday and continues each afternoon
next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River continues to hold sections of thermally degraded
in-place ice between Beaver and Tanana. These limited sections are
slowly breaking up and will continue to create ice runs they are
pushed out. Remaining ice should clear out by this weekend.

For the Buckland River:
 - The Buckland River is slowly breaking up, with some open water
   in front of town. Directly upstream from town there is a mix of
   intact ice and open water; towards the headwaters open water
   conditions dominate. Ice remains mostly intact downriver from
   Buckland, including at known jam points.

 -A local observer reports that water has continued to rise and is
  now just a few feet below bank full. Ongoing snowmelt in the
  basin brings the potential for flooding as early as Friday if
  the intact ice below Buckland is strong enough to resist the
  push of water and ice.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
High confidence that troughing will be over the West Coast and
Western Interior with weak ridging over the Central and Eastern
Interior. This pattern looks to persist through much of the
week bringing more showery weather to the Interior with slight
chances for thunderstorms each afternoon through the work week.
We`ll be monitoring a low in the Bering Sea late next week. There
is low confidence in where it goes, but trends have been to
develop it in the Western Bering Sea and push it over the
Aleutians, then into the Gulf. It doesn`t look too impactful right
now besides the potential for light rain along the Coast.
Temperatures look to remain seasonable to slightly above average
for much of Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ818.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
&&

$$

Bianco