412
FXAK69 PAFG 120954
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 AM AKDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will dominate the weather pattern over Alaska
the next several days, keeping the N Mainland in a quiescent
state of weather affairs. East-northeast winds over the Arctic
increase into the weekend, which will bring minor blowing snow,
although there is a 20-40 % probability that visibility
reductions reach a half mile or less across the Arctic, by Fri.
For the Interior, cooler today along with blustery northeast
winds, then slight warming later this week, with bouts of clouds
and maybe a flurry.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
Cooler arctic air has infiltrated the region and has brought
our temps back to seasonal norms. We have been so far above
normal, lately, that this may feel cold, but it is barely
"average". An arctic trough will rotate west and induce south
winds by Thu across the AK Range, which will push temps slightly
above normal again. Northeast winds over Interior higher
elevations will push into the 30 mph range, which will also
promote mostly dry conditions. However, there will be snow showers
over the AK Range as the low shifts west and south winds develop
tonight into Fri night. Otherwise, low stratus and a few flurries
will continue to be possible over the SE Interior.

- No significant weather impacts expected.

- Northeast winds gusting to 30 mph over the Interior higher
  elevations through Thursday. Significant blowing snow is not
  expected.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Blustery north winds continue down the Bering Strait this morning,
with local blowing snow and a few snow showers. That will continue
all the way into the weekend, with little change in magnitude. An
arctic low spins over the region Fri into Saturday, bringing light
snow showers/chances for snow to the W Interior and parts of the
coast. Light snow accumulations currently look to be over the
Yukon Valley.

- No significant weather impacts expected.

- Fog, light snow showers, and blustery north winds to 30 mph
  continue through the Bering Strait and at St. Lawrence Island.

- Light snow chances over the Yukon Valley Friday, and spreading
  into coastal areas, Fri night. Snow accumulations will be light
  and less than 2 inches.

- Breezy conditions continue through the Bering Strait with winds
  increasing to gust to 40 mph on Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
A weak surface trough axis remains over the central part of the
Arctic coast, which is promoting light winds, but also areas of
low stratus, fog, and flurries. This persists another 24 hours
then east winds increase late Wed night as an arctic high
strengthens. Winds reach gale force gusts by Thu night, and
increase Fri. Fog and flurries end, but the chance for at least
minor blowing snow increases dramatically. However, how far
visibility is reduced is not certain at this juncture due to lack
of transportable snow and increasing sun angle, which tends to
fuse snow crystals on the ground together.

- Minor weather impacts will mostly be associated with low
  stratus, periods of fog, and flurries from Atqasuk to Prudhoe
  Bay the next 24 hours or so.

- Possibility of more substantial blowing snow over the W Arctic
  from Point Lay to Point Hope beginning Thu and increasing into
  Fri night as gale force winds redevelop. Currently, there is a
  20-40 % chance for visibility to drop to a half mile or less.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 516 dam arctic low is centered over the E Interior. There is a
1040 mb high just north of Wrangel Island, moving east. Weak high
pressure aloft still persists over the Beaufort, with a separate
lobe of high pressure aloft over the Chukchi. The main storm track
is well to the south over the NPAC.

With time, the arctic low will shift west over the next three days
then stall and weaken over the West Coast. Surface high pressure
strengthens over the Arctic and easterly winds ramp up to gale
force by Fri, which may promote widespread blowing snow, however,
how much actually results in significant visibility restrictions
remains to be seen. We favored the NAM for winds over the Arctic
to bring them to gale force. Chances for snow develop over the W
interior later this week into the weekend due to the stalled
arctic low. Snow amounts look minimal, however.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The extended forecast remains fairly quiet, still, as arctic high
pressure dominates the high latitudes and the storm track remains
over the NPAC and Gulf. East winds are weakening after peaking on
Fri over the Arctic. There will be some minor chances for snow
for the W Interior this weekend, and that may shift east as the
early next week progresses as weakening fronts try and move into
the S Interior and AK Range. Temps look fairly seasonable to
start, then periods of south flow look likely toward the middle
of next week with warming temperatures again.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-811-816-817-851-854-856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher