509
FXAK69 PAFG 052058
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1258 PM AKDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fairly low impact weather over the Mainland for the next few days
as the storm track remains over the Gulf and Panhandle. Light snow
chances will clip the E Interior Sunday night and Monday. Strong
north winds to gale force today will wane over the next two days,
slowly, over the Bering Strait. Stratus and fog will continue over
the Arctic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A remnant occluded low center remains over Bristol Bay with the
upper center analyzed around 513 dam. There is an occluded front
moving inland along the N Gulf Coast with the associated trough
axis inducing a cross-barrier south flow across the Chugach Mtns
and Alaska Range. South winds to 50+ mph are currently moving
through the terrain of the AK Range. There is a 973 mb low
associated with the Bristol Bay occlusion, a 991 mb low over the
Yukon Flats, and a 1030 mb high over the higher arctic region. The
combo of lee troughing across the AK Range and a deep low over the
Bering Sea is inducing a Tanana Valley Jet from Delta Junction to
Nenana.

Forecast and Model Discussion...
The Bering low dives into the Gulf the next two days and a strong
southerly jet will develop a low which will track from the
Panhandle to the SE Interior Sun night and Mon. There was some
discrepancy earlier with the ECMWF much weaker and east, but the
12z run came in stronger and further west, which is in-line with
everything else. We will favor a blend to all 12z models to
increase snow chances over the E Interior from Eagle to Tok Sun
night and Mon. Thereafter, the pattern remains mundane as all
models develop a weak arctic trough over the W Interior and then
slowly migrate it east through the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
South flow is producing a cross-barrier flow which is inducing
south winds through the passes to 55 mph and a 35 mph Tanana
Valley Jet through Delta Junction. These winds peak tonight and
then quickly wane Sunday late morning. A low will clip the SE
Interior Sun night and Monday, bringing rain/snow accumulations to
the Yukon-Tanana Uplands and the Tanana Valley down to 1000 feet.
A cold rain may move as far west as Delta Junction on Monday.

An arctic cool front will begin to slowly move east Tuesday, with
increasing chances for snow flurries down to the deck, as well as
gradually cooling temps.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong gales moving down the Bering Strait will continue through
the weekend then begin to wane on Monday. An arctic front will
shift east tonight and Monday and that will bring in colder temps
and chances for snow showers across coastal regions, with heavier
accumulating snow over the higher terrain of the Seward Peninsula.
With north winds gusting to 35 to 40 mph over the Bering coasts,
there will likely be some areas of blowing snow as it falls from
the sky. Snow showers continue into Tuesday even as the north
winds wane.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Dense fog will likely return tonight over parts of the Arctic,
especially Prudhoe Bay east given the lighter winds and continued
onshore flow aloft advecting marine moisture inland. An arctic
front will move into the W Arctic and those west winds will start
to move east Mon night and Tue so dense fog should improve. North
winds and snow showers increase out west Monday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
An arctic trough forms over the Mainland early next week and will
remain in place through about Thursday before another deep low
moves from the Bering to the Gulf of AK. Cooler temps running
slightly below seasonal norms will be the main highlight along
with chances for snow flurries and maybe higher elevation snow
accumulations.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ827.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-805>807-850-853-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher