388
FXAK69 PAFG 092326
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
226 PM AKST Thu Jan 9 2025


.SYNOPSIS...
Continued warm over the Interior through the weekend as chinook
flow persists, as well as strong southerly winds in the Alaska
Range Passes. For the west coast, two low pressure systems will
move out of the northern Pacific and into the Bering Friday
through Monday. These features will bring heavy snow to portions
of Western Alaska and the Seward Penn, but will likely produce
scattered snow showers elsehwere across northern and central
Alaska.

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

* Temperatures well above average through the weekend.
 - Widespread high temperatures in the teens and 20s are expected.
   The Central Interior could see highs in the mid to upper 30s
   on Sunday.
 - The Yukon Flats will be colder than most of the rest of the
   Interior, with temps likely remaining in the single digits.

 - A wave moving north along the eastern border will result in some
   light snow over the Alaska Highway and the Fortymile Country
   on Thursday. Accumulations could be around an inch.

* Wind advisories are in effect for the Alaska Range for Saturday
  and High Wind Watches are also in effect for Sunday for even
  stronger winds with possible gusts near 80 mph.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

* Some light snow will be possible over the western Arctic Coast
  Thursday afternoon and evening. Light to moderate snowfall will
  be possible for the Western North Slope Saturday into Sunday as
  a system crosses the Bering Sea, with heavier snow possible late
  Sunday into Monday with another system.

West Coast and Western Interior...

* Winds in the Bering Sea will rise and fall multiple times
  over the next several days as a series of lows move through.
  The first will see north winds through the Bering Sea and
  Bering Strait potentially increase back into the 45 to 55 mph
  range Thursday evening into Friday before they briefly decline
  somewhat ahead of a second low on Saturday and a third and
  strongest low on Sunday.

* Two low pressure systems will bring snow and blowing snow to the
  west coast Friday into Saturday, and the second system bringing
  even heavier snow to the west coast and inland areas Sunday into
  Monday. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the first
  storm and Winter Storm Watches are in effect for portions of the
  west coast for the second storm. The Seward Penn will also see
  several inches of snow over several days.

* Above-normal temperatures are expected as temperatures rise
  widely into the teens and 20s. Areas near the northern slopes of
  the Alaska Range in particular, including McGrath, may see
  temperatures rise to near 30.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...

2 systems will impact the west coast Friday and through the
Weekend. The first low will be entering the southern Bering Sea
by Friday morning and models are now in much better agreement
tracking the center of this low just offshore the YK Delta with
the low passing over Nunivak Island Friday evening en route to a
final position over the Bering Strait. Snow and blowing snow
expected for the Y-K Delta and Saint Lawrence Island, although
the YK Delta coast may well see a period of mixed precipitation
for a short period Friday night. However enough cold air should be
in place to keep precipitation all snow further north over the
Seward Peninsula. The second low will bring widespread heavy snow
to the Nulato Hills and the Seward Penn on Sunday. Snow totals
around 6 to 12 inches possible into Monday.

This pattern also sets up an extended period of stronger southerly
flow over the Alaska Range, consequently resulting in Chinook
conditions to the north over portions of the Tanana Valley.
Winds Saturday over the Alaska Range and through the passes should
increase with gust potential up to 60 mph Saturday before an even
strong system pushes wind speeds higher for Sunday. High Wind
Watches are in place for Sunday in anticipation of even stronger
winds late in the weekend.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7 (Sunday through Wednesday)...

With strong Chinooking likely through the Alaska Range late
weekend into early next week, temperatures in the Interior will
increase significantly. Some areas, including the Fairbanks area,
may see temperatures rise well into the 30s to near 40 on Sunday.
Widespread highs in the 30s are possible for the Western Interior
during this same time frame. Winds over the Alaska Range with the
aforementioned Chinook event will likely be strong Sunday, with
the ECMWF ensemble at the McKinley Park site having numerous
members with winds exceeding 70 to 80 mph. Snow and Blowing snow
will continue from the Seward Penn Northward Monday into Tuesday.
Turning colder again over northern Alaska later in the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.d 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ847-849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ829-830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-811-856>858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$