916
FXAK69 PAFG 031533
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
633 AM AKST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather is expected to continue today across Western
Alaska, with general low pressure in the area. The Western
Interior could see up to a few inches of new snow the next couple
of days with a north-moving band beginning to track across the
area this morning. Some of this will eventually traverse the
western North Slope, with the best chance for an inch or more of
snow at Point Hope and Utqiagvik. East winds gusting up to 50 mph
across the Arctic coast east of Utqiagvik will continue today
while shifting farther east. A general cooling trend will continue
across Northern Alaska through mid-to-late week. Beginning
Wednesday night and running through the weekend, a fairly broad
area of potential snowfall will be possible across the Interior.
While there is still significant forecast uncertainty, many areas
could receive at least an inch of accumulation, with some areas
potentially seeing more.

&&

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Better snow chances return Wednesday night into the weekend.
  While there is uncertainty, most areas have a chance for at
  least an inch. With high snow-to-liquid ratios possible, some
  areas could see up to six inches over a multi-day period.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will gradually cool off each day
  this week with highs mainly in the 20s and lows mainly in the
  teens for the beginning of the week, then highs generally in the
  teens by the second half of the week. Expected breaks in clouds
  in southeastern areas could yield lows in the single digits.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered ocean effect snow showers will move into the YK Delta
  and Norton Sound areas from the west to northwest this morning,
  then from the northeast from tomorrow afternoon onward.

- With the exception of parts of the Lower Yukon Valley, an
  additional 1-2 inches of snow is possible through Tuesday
  morning for most of the Western Interior and the Bering Sea
  coastline. A few inches of snow will be possible across most of
  Western Alaska from Wednesday through Friday.

- Highs near 30 with lows in the low-to-mid 20s are expected for
  St. Lawrence Island. In the Western Interior, highs cool from
  the upper 20s today into the mid teens by Friday, with lows
  falling from near 20 into the single digits. The West Coast will
  see highs in mid/upper 20s and lows in the low 20s/high teens.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Easterly winds continue across the Arctic coast, with the
  highest gusts today being east of Utqiagvik up to 45 mph. These
  winds will shift toward the eastern Arctic coast by Tuesday.
  There will also be some blowing snow, with restricted
  visibilities getting down to a quarter of a mile at times.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries with little
  accumulation will be possible today, mostly near Utqiagvik and
  Point Hope. 1-2 inches of snow, perhaps more with high snow
  ratios, will be possible in the western two-thirds of the North
  Slope from Wednesday through Saturday.

- Cloudy skies and above normal temperatures continue through
  early this week. A colder air mass drops highs into the teens
  and single digits in the Arctic plains and eastern Arctic coast,
  with lows in the single digits or lower by Wednesday into late
  week. Portions of the Arctic Plains could have highs below zero
  by the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
General troughing is in place across Western Alaska, with a ~516
dm upper low in place over the YK Delta and a ~534 ridge over the
Arctic. With a several millibar gradient in place across the
eastern half or so of the Arctic coast, gusts of upwards of 45
mph are occurring at some sites. Model prognosis shifts a 1024 mb
high over the Arctic to the southeast as it gradually
strengthens. This will shift the gradient and thus the highest
winds to the east but should still support continuing gusty winds
near and just offshore of Barter Island from Tuesday night through
Thursday night. A shortwave trough northeast of the main upper
low will support some light showers to the northern/western Arctic
coast through this evening as it shifts to the north. Areas of
snow showers will move from the northwest off the Bering Sea /
Norton Sound onto adjacent coastal areas through tomorrow morning
but will move to the southwest thereafter as an otherwise
unimpactful (for Northern Alaska) low over the southern Bering
passes by.

Additional snow/snow showers over the Western Interior
will bring up to a few inches of snow to the area through
midweek. Beginning Wednesday evening, a shortwave on the east side
of the upper low (by then over southwestern Alaska) will move
north across the eastern Interior/North Slope and could yield
anywhere from 1 to 6 inches for many areas. Model prognosis
provides limited certainty. The 00Z ECMWF solution has the
shortwave moving in a more southeast-to-northwest orientation,
which brings more moisture around the Alaska Range into the area
and drops more snowfall. The 06Z GFS solution conversely is drier
in the Eastern Interior and moister in the Western Interior, with
the shortwave beginning farther west and tracking more directly to
the north. The 00Z Canadian resembles the GFS solution, and the
06Z ECMWF is similar to the 00Z ECMWF but with a stronger
shortwave, a slightly more due north rather than northwest track,
and slightly lower snowfall.


&&

HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across the area
and is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Wednesday night, a
large low in the Gulf of Alaska is sending fronts of moisture
north into the Alaska Range and around it into the Southeastern
Interior. These fronts are expected to bring widespread snowfall
across the state similar to the snowfall seen late last week.
This snowfall is expected to develop in a colder pattern and thus
fluffier, less dense snowfall is expected. There is currently low
confidence in snowfall amounts, but areas of up to 6 inches is
possible Thursday through Saturday, especially in the White
Mountains and other more elevated areas. Another low moves east
along the Aleutians early next week which will likely bring
additional snow and gusty winds to the West Coast and parts of the
Western Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813>815-859-860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813>815-858>860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

DS: Synopsis, Key Messages, and Forecast Analysis/Discussion
Stokes: Extended