865
FXAK69 PAFG 092212
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
212 PM AKDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weakening warm front is bringing light snow and
wind across the West Coast south of the Bering Strait, but
visibility looks to remain above one half mile for most areas
except St. Lawrence Island. Dry and quiet weather will be the trend
in the Interior over the next few days with only a weak disturbance
in the SE Interior bringing slight chances for snow Monday night
into Tuesday morning. On the North Slope, stratus and fog will
gradually clear from east to west as an Arctic high to the
northeast dries things out, though patchy fog will persist
especially near areas of open water.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Mostly dry weather with cooling temperatures to seasonal norms expected
  into early next week.

- Slight chance for snow or flurries east of Tok along the Alaska
  Highway Monday night into Tuesday. An upper low moves west from
  Canada over the area with cloudier conditions likely and
  flurries possible in the Central Interior Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A warm front with strong winds and light snow is weakening over
  the southern Seward Peninsula coast and St. Lawrence Island this
  afternoon. Have gone ahead and cancelled the Winter Weather
  Advisory for the Yukon Delta as the front has already moved
  through, but will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory for St.
  Lawrence Island as the front stalls over the island.

- Wind gusts will be strongest in Gambell with gusts up to 50 mph
  overnight tonight.

- Above normal temperatures persist through Monday then drop below
  normal beginning Tuesday.

- North winds gusting to 45 mph will begin Monday evening through
  the Bering Strait and persist through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Strong winds at Barter Island diminish overnight Monday into
  Tuesday.

- Stratus gradually clears but open leads in the Eastern Beaufort
  Sea will keep the chance for fog which may be dense at times.

- Temperatures remain fairly steady through the week with highs
  near 0 and lows between 10 and 20 below.

Forecast Analysis and Discussion...A 1030 mb Arctic high centered
just north of Banks Island and a 963 mb low in the central Bering
Sea has a weak NE pressure gradient set up across the state. A
warm front extending east from the low in the Bering is bringing
strong winds and light snow to the west coast from St. Lawrence
Island south. A Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect
through 1am for St. Lawrence Island. The main low will weaken and
drift southeast to Bristol Bay at 992 mb by late Monday night. A
985 mb low will move to Prince William Sound Monday afternoon as
an upper level low drifts over the eastern Interior. These
features will combine to produce cloudier conditions and light
snow over the eastern Interior, mainly along the Alaska Highway
east of Tok on Tuesday. A building surface high near Wrangel
Island will bring strong north winds through the Bering Strait
through most of next week.

Models are not in good agreement on the overall pattern aloft past
Wednesday morning with the GFS keeping the main upper low off in
the Yukon Territory while the other models bring it west over the
Central and Eastern Interior. Will use a blend of the ECMWF,
Canadian, and NAM for the forecast today. This keeps things pretty
consistent with the inherited forecast as GFS model runs continue
to differ from other solutions.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...A relatively high amount of
uncertainty remains in the extended, though models are in a bit
better agreement than they have been the past couple of days.
There is good agreement for the Arctic high to persist over the
Beaufort Sea and bring a prolonged period of strong easterly
winds across the Arctic Coast. This looks to be the main hazard in
the extended forecast period. Snow is looking more likely over the
Western Interior next weekend, and a stronger system bringing snow
and wind to the southwest coast is possible near the end of next
weekend. Temperatures will be below normal on the West Coast and
near normal elsewhere.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-809-852-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

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