733
FXAK69 PAFG 011244
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
444 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable weather continues for the majority of Northern Alaska.
High pressure remains anchored over the majority of the region as
a pair of low pressure systems make their way eastward as a weak
Rex Blocking pattern remains over the region. While the overall
pattern remains progressive guidance does show this blocking
pattern breaking down by this weekend as a robust low passes
southeastward from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska
resulting in minimal impacts, with the exception being the far
western coast of Alaska.

DISCUSSION...

Surface and Upper Level Analysis...
Weak, but persistent high pressure looks to remain anchored
across Central and Eastern Alaska through the week as a Rex
Blocking pattern remains in place. This will bring seasonal
temperatures and mostly clear skies across the CWA. This
persistent Rex Block, looks to become unseated towards the end of
the this week/early next week as a strengthening low drops into
the eastern Bering Sea on Wednesday and then push eastward towards
St. Paul and St. George island on Thursday. Models remain in
agreement that the low looks to almost stall out within Bristol
Bay, before finally pushing further eastward into the Gulf of
Alaska. Overall, expect a somewhat persistent weather pattern for
the forecast area through the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Plenty of sunshine with highs in the 40s through the middle of the
week. Lows in the 20s to 30s. Some very isolated, valley freezing
fog may develop, especially near the Yukon River, but most places
remain fog free. No impactful weather is expected through the end
of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Areas of stratus and fog remain along the West Coast as southerly
flow persists through Wednesday. Temperatures will also be in the
40s through Wednesday. A pattern change is expected on Thursday as
the next major system enters into the central and eastern Being
Seas. Southeasterly winds with gusts up to 40 mph expected, along
with isolated gusts up 50 mph through Friday. There will be some
rain in the YK Delta for the latter part of the week with
precipitation totals less than 0.25 inches likely. No impactful
weather is expected from this storm.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Quiet weather continues with localized dense fog and generally
offshore flow. Overall, no impactful weather is expected through
the end of the week as high pressure remains over the area.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Much of the same expected across Northern Alaska, cooler and
relatively dry weather. It will be breezy in the Bering Strait
this weekend with gusts to 40 mph from the north expected. Winds
weaken through the early part of next week. Otherwise, the next
chance for precipitation in the Interior by next Tuesday as a low
in the Gulf provides a weak wave of energy over the AK Range,
this may bring chances for rain or snow, though right now, this is
low confidence.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

HYDROLOGY...No concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$