739
FXAK69 PAFG 082310
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
210 PM AKST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure near/north of 80N latitude to remain stationary
today and through much of the weekend, producing east/northeast
flow along the Arctic coast and North Slope area. Increasing
arctic ice is reducing the amount and intensity of sea effect snow
showers, but they are still visible on satellite imagery today
extending well inland onto the North Slope. A 987 mb low east of
Kodiak Island to slowly drift east and fill through Saturday as
another low over the North Pacific south of Adak Island slides
east along and south of the Aleutian Islands today through the
weekend. This is producing generally quiet weather for the
interior, with some light snow showers along the North Slope and
also the eastern Interior around the White Mountains today and
tonight with little if any accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Central and Eastern Interior Key Messages...
- Light snow showers or flurries around the area through tonight,
  otherwise quiet weather will dominate through early next week.
- Cooling trend will continue through early next week with near
  normal temperatures this weekend, then below normal temperatures
  next week.
- Low temperatures will likely drop below 0 as we head into
  Monday while high temperatures drop into the single digits.

North Slope and Brooks Range Key Messages...
- Persistent wind gusts to 20-40 mph from the east/northeast
  along the Arctic Coast with areas of blowing snow continuing
  through the weekend.
- Strongest winds to be found along the NW Arctic Coast, with
  sustained Gale Force winds along the coast and over the water
  likely through the weekend
- A cooling trend to near normal temperatures this weekend, then
  near to below normal next week.

West Coast and Western Interior Key Messages...
- Generally quiet weather with a light easterly breeze today
  which subsides through the weekend.
- A cooling trend continues through the middle part of next week
  with temperatures dropping below normal this weekend.

Our general synopsis with the high pressure near 80N latitude and
a weakening low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska east of Kodiak
Island to continue tonight. A low now intensifying south of the
central Aleutian Islands will also move east through the weekend,
keeping the general synoptic pattern very similar through this
time frame. This afternoon and tonight into early Saturday a weak
surface trough and shortwave aloft will generate some snow
showers/flurries over the eastern Interior, mainly east of
Fairbanks and over the White Mountains, and perhaps up into the
Yukon Flats area. Little if any accumulation is expected. East to
northeast winds to continue, especially along the Arctic Coast,
though it will be weakening through the weekend. The strongest
wind will be found along the NW Arctic Coast with a subtle
shortwave trough tightening a pressure gradient which keeps winds
there strong through at least the weekend, gradually diminishing
through the middle of next week. Sustained gale force winds will
be found just offshore while gusts to 40 mph are expected in Point
Lay, and upwards of 50 mph in Cape Lisburne. These east-northeast
winds will also keep the sea effect clouds and showers going for
the Arctic Coast and North Slope, as long as there is open water
along the Arctic coastline.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

We are expecting generally quiet weather and near to below normal
temperatures through at least the first half of next week. Winds
to gradually diminish along the North Slope, allowing the blowing
snow to lay down and be less of a concern. A weak front may bring
small snow chances to the West Coast Monday into Tuesday.
Confidence in this system is increasing, but strength and timing
are still in question. We are monitoring the potential for a
strong low to develop over the northwest Pacific and track
northeast and affect the Alaska Peninsula by the end of next week.
Uncertainty remains high in the strength and track, but
confidence continues to increase that there will be a low which
generally tracks from the northwest Pacific into the Bering sea
which may bring strong winds and the potential for coastal
flooding to the West Coast as early as Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-810>815-857>861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-814-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

LE