147
FXAK69 PAFG 182120
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
120 PM AKDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blizzard conditions along the Arctic Coast improve today as winds
diminish this afternoon. Scattered rain and snow showers
throughout the Interior will help keep temperatures cooler today
than yesterday. The south slopes of the Brooks Range, particularly
along the Dalton Highway through Atigun Pass, will see 3 to 6
inches of snow accumulations through Sunday night. Conditions
become generally quiet after Sunday.


&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures cool today and Saturday with highs in the low to
  mid 40s today and highs in the mid 30s to low 40s Saturday.
  Temperatures warm Sunday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s
  and stay in this range through midweek next week.

- Mostly cloudy conditions with intermittent rain or snow showers,
  especially in the afternoons. Showers diminish from the west
  Saturday and Saturday night with only the Yukon Uplands and
  southeastern Brooks Range seeing showers Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A frontal boundary remains parked from Chukchi Sea coast through
  the central Seward Peninsula to the Yukon Delta. West of the
  front, mostly snow is falling while mostly rain is falling east
  of the front. The front slowly moves east and weakens through
  Saturday night and will be over the Western Interior tonight and
  eastern Interior Saturday afternoon.

- Winds have shifted west/southwest behind the front as it moves
  east. Wind speeds will continue to decrease through Saturday as
  the front moves further east and weakens.

- High temperatures will be mainly in the 20s along the coast and
  in the 30s inland.

- Showers return to the Yukon Delta Sunday evening as the next
  system approaches. Showers stretch north to the southern Seward
  Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island by Monday morning. Showers are
  expected to be a messy rain/snow mix but with significantly less
  accumulations than the previous system.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Blizzard conditions are improving this evening as winds
  diminish. A Blizzard Warning is in effect through this evening
  with strong easterly winds with gusts up to 40 mph and some
  light snow showers and recent snowfall creating areas of blowing
  snow reducing visibility to as low as a quarter mile at times.

- Snow showers continue along the south slopes of the Brooks Range
  and north to around Toolik Lake along the Dalton Highway. Most
  areas can expect 3 to 6 inches through Sunday night.

- Temperatures will be steady between 0 and 10 above near the
  coast and in the teens and 20s in the Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A front stretching from the Chukchi Sea Coast through the eastern
Seward Peninsula and into the Lower Yukon Valley is slowly moving
east and weakening as the upper level and surface lows that are
supporting it fill in. This process happens rapidly and causes the
organized body of the front to fall apart Saturday as it`s remnant
energy and moisture continues to support scattered showers across
the Interior. A 533 dam upper level high in the high Arctic and a
weak ridge that builds in the Gulf of Alaska as the low in the
Gulf moves east Saturday help to increase surface pressure in the
Interior to clear out the showers from the western and central
Interior by Sunday. Two lows move into the southwestern Bering Sea
Saturday and rotate around each other with the eastern of these
lows becoming a shortwave rotating around the western low. This
shortwave rotates into YK Delta and brings more messy showers to
the Yukon Delta Sunday afternoon with wet snow, sleet, and rain
likely. Accumulations will be generally less than an inch of
heavy, wet snow, but some areas further south may see up to two
inches of this wet, heavy snow. These showers will stretch into
the southern Seward Peninsula and to St. Lawrence Island by Monday
morning bringing very light accumulations of wet snow with sleet
and rain being less likely. These showers will move east into the
eastern Norton Sound and into the lower Yukon Valley as the main
low moves east to over St. Matthew Island by Monday afternoon
before being pulled south into the Gulf of Alaska by better
dynamics allowing a smaller shortwave feature to rapidly
strengthen into the new main low and pull the rest of the system
into the Gulf to end these showers.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The Arctic high persists through the week and strengthens into a
1040 to 1045 mb high with models disagreeing on its exact
placement, but all pulling it further south. Another low moves
through the southern Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska
Wednesday through Friday providing some more scattered showers to
the YK Delta and lower Yukon. Models agree fairly well on this low
with the exception of the Canadian, which closes the low off in
the Bering Sea and keeps it from entering the Gulf of Alaska.
Other models favor bringing the low into the Gulf leaving the West
Coast generally dry, but if the Canadian solution proves correct
then we`ll see more messy mixed showers in the YK Delta and
southern Seward Peninsula.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ802>805.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813>815-858-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Stokes