441
FXAK69 PAFG 092249
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
249 PM AKDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong storm that brought coastal flooding and high
winds to the west coast, as well as heavy rain to the Interior has
moved northeast and weakened near Nuiqsut. A warm front will bring
mixed precipitation, east winds, and very low water to the West
Coast Friday and Saturday. All eyes then turn to the remnants of
Typhoon Halong that may bring major to possible record coastal
flooding to areas of the West Coast south of the Bering Strait
Saturday evening through Monday evening. Wind gusts as high as 80
mph are also likely for St. Lawrence Island as well as the Yukon
Delta. The Interior will be breezy with periods of rain in valleys
and mixed rain and snow and snow over higher terrain. Blowing
snow and low visibility is likely across the eastern North Slope
Friday and Friday night.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Isolated rain and snow showers with snow levels dropping to ~700
to 1000ft tonight. Rain showers transition to snow showers for most
areas tomorrow afternoon/overnight.

- Breezy in the White Mountains and Dalton Highway Summits, some
blowing snow possible but will be insignificant.

- Sunshine returns on Saturday with seasonable temperatures.

- Mild temperatures in the mid to upper 40s today, dropping to near
normal (mid 30s to low 40s) by Saturday.

- Big coastal storm arrives Sunday with warming temperatures and
rain showers in the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

The Main Story:

Coastal Flood Watches and High Wind Watches have been issued for
Sunday to Monday storm.

Remnants of Typhoon Halong will make its way into the Bering Sea on
Saturday. This storm will be very strong and may be the strongest
storm to hit the West Coast since Post-Tropical Typhoon Merbok
with the potential for historic water level rises in some spots.
Possible impacts consist of major coastal flooding and erosion and
power outages with south wind gusts up to 60 to 80 mph or
stronger Saturday night through Sunday night.

- Otherwise, prior to the storm, there is some calmer weather today
consisting of isolated rain showers and some sunshine.

- Clouds increase tomorrow, rain develops in St. Lawrence Island and
YK Delta during the afternoon and moves north overnight. Offshore
winds gusting 30 to 50 mph along the coast tomorrow afternoon
through Saturday morning. A few snow showers are possible in the
higher terrain above 1000ft.

- Then the remnants of Typhoon Halong arrives and moves almost
directly over St. Matthew Island Saturday night. This is when the
Yukon Delta begins to see its worst impacts.

- Very strong south winds move north to the Seward Peninsula by
Sunday morning and this is when the Bering Strait Region begins to
see their worst impacts. Water levels will rise through the day on
Sunday and may be very high overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

- There is still some uncertainty with exact strength and track of
the storm, but it is shaping up to be a major storm with severe
impacts.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Coastal Flood Watches Issued for the next storm Sunday-Monday.

- Westerly winds gusting to 40 mph continue for most of the Arctic
Coast through Friday morning. Winds gusting to 50 mph persist in
Kaktovik through Saturday morning. Light snow may make some for
blowing snow and low visibility at times through Saturday morning
along the Eastern Arctic Coast.

- Light snow in Atigun Pass continues with gusty winds at times
through Saturday morning.

- The next storm, remnants of Typhoon Halong, arrives in the Bering
on Saturday and moves towards the Bering Strait on Sunday.

- Significant impacts are possible once again with erosion and
coastal flooding being a concern once again. It is too early to give
specific impacts, but it could be a repeat of the storm we just had.

- Heavy snow in the Brooks Range looks likely as well Sunday-Monday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...The strong storm that brought
high winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding to the West Coast and
Western Arctic Coast continues to move east as a weakening 995 mb
low north of Nuiqsut. High pressure resides over Interior Alaska
and the Yukon Territory, and a 968 mb low lies in the far Western
Bering Sea. This low will bring a strong warm front from south to
north across the west coast bringing strong offshore winds and a
brief round of mixed precipitation Friday night through Saturday
night. After that, all eyes turn to the remnants of Typhoon Halong
as it makes its way into the Bering Sea. This storm will bring
wind gusts as high as 80 mph to the Yukon Delta and to St.
Lawrence Island, and 70 mph north all the way to Shishmaref. The
storm will also bring the threat of major to near record coastal
flooding. See Coastal Flood Watches for details. The storm will
move through the Bering Strait and then eastward just south of the
western Arctic Coast through Monday night. Additional storms are
likely to follow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...With the rain from this last storm on the way out, the
Chena should be peaking Friday night into Saturday morning. With
the next coastal storm coming, the Seward Peninsula will likely
receive upwards of an inch or more of precipitation, leading to
the Snake River and and other streams potentially rising on
Monday. The Wulik River could potentially increase Monday as well,
however there are no major concerns at this time regarding river
flooding.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Another low coming up the Bering Sea will begin to impact the West
Coast Saturday evening. This low will bring rain and strong
southerly wind gusts to the West Coast, St. Lawrence Island, and
western Brooks Range throughout the day on Sunday. This low will
also bring more coastal flooding concerns for areas on the West
Coast. Current guidance is showing that the flooding will likely
be more severe then the October 8th storm south of the Bering
Strait. The low looks like it will travel north over St. Lawrence
Island and will begin to weaken once it goes through the Bering
Strait. The Interior should remain dry until Sunday as a warm
front extends from the low, bringing scattered rain showers
throughout the day.

A 950mb low will be making its way towards the Y-K Delta with an
extended cold front bringing more rain to the West Coast and western
North Slope on Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty south/southwesterly
winds along the Y-K Delta and southern Seward Peninsula are also
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...We are expecting another coastal
storm to impact Western Alaska heading into Sunday and Monday,
with additional details to come into focus over the coming days.
The overall model consensus supports the remnants of Typhoon
Halong moving east off the coast of Japan into the Pacific, before
sharply turning north into the Bering Sea as it is works up along
the western edge of a broad ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska. At this time, water levels and wind speeds look to be
higher south of the Bering Strait than they were during the
October 8th storm. Major coastal flooding in possible. Coastal
Flood Watches have been issued and contain possible impact
information.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ801>803.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ801-815>818-824.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ802-803.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ820>824.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ820-822.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ821.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ825-827.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ825-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-816-817-850-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-811-852-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-815-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859-860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Chriest/Bianco/Lewis