506
FXAK69 PAFG 032141
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
141 PM AKDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front brings more snow to the West Coast tonight through Saturday
with the highest amounts in the Yukon Delta. Light snow showers
reach the North Slope Friday evening and last through Monday.
Southerly winds across the Alaska Range are bringing warmer weather
to the Interior through the weekend. Generally quiet weather
expected early next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Temperatures warm through Saturday with highs in the mid to upper
40s today from Fairbanks to the south and east. Temperatures
increase to around 50 Friday and Saturday with the highest
temperatures reaching potentially into the mid 50s just north of the
Alaska Range.
-Southerly winds increase through the Alaska Range with gusts up to
45 mph expected in Isabel Pass through Saturday with a brief period
of gusts reaching to near 50 mph possible overnight Saturday into
Sunday. Areas south of Healy will see lower speeds with gusts
reaching only into the 30-40 mph range.
-Some moderate northeasterly winds tonight through Friday across the
Yukon Flats and the Dalton Highway Summits. The strongest winds will
be across the Dalton Highway Summits with gusts up to 30mph through
Friday evening.
-Low temperatures fall below freezing for much of the Interior
resulting in freeze-thaw cycles through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Snow and blowing snow for the Yukon Delta Coast with a winter
weather advisory in effect. 4 to 6 inches of snow is expected to
fall across the delta from this evening through Saturday morning
with gusty northerly winds near the coast. Gusts up to 30 mph
generally expected with up to 40mph possible near Hooper Bay and
Chevak. Where these stronger winds overlap with falling snow
visibility is expected to fall to a half mile or less at times.
-The front bringing snow to the Delta will bring lesser amounts of 2
to 3 inches from the eastern Norton Sound through Ambler and into
the Western Brooks Range. This front will move east Saturday
afternoon and bring similar snowfall to the rest of the Western
Interior by Sunday evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-Scattered light snow showers across the North Slope east of Point
Lay Friday with accumulations less than 1 inch. Snow becomes more
widespread Saturday and Sunday with accumulations 1 to 2 inches.
-Winds shift easterly midday Friday with the strongest winds from
Point Thompson east reaching up to gusts of 30 mph. Winds peak
overnight Friday into Saturday with winds 15mph and less across the
eastern North Slope Saturday and Sunday.
-There may be brief periods of reduced visibility due to blowing
snow where these scattered snow showers and stronger winds overlap
Friday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
At the surface the last remnants of the system that brought snow to
the Interior and West Coast this week moves northeast into Canada.
Pressure builds in the Interior from the southeast as this system
exits. A 977mb low south of Kodiak Island extends a front north into
the YK Delta this evening and stretching north to Ambler and the
Central Brooks Range by Friday afternoon. This will provide moderate
snowfall to the Yukon Delta Coast tonight through Saturday morning
and lesser amounts north of the delta. Northerly winds increase on
the western side of this feature through the Bering Strait and along
the YK Delta Coast and easterly winds increase across the North
Slope tonight as air is pulled across the state into the low. Some
moderate northeasterly winds across the Interior Friday, especially
at higher elevations and along the Dalton highway summits, helping
to feed into the low, but the front moving east Saturday afternoon
will cut off this flow in the Interior and weaken the winds on the
West Coast and North Slope.

Aloft, there is a 494 dam low in the high Arctic and a 550 dam ridge
over Canada and the eastern Interior today. A 512 dam low south of
Kodiak Island is creating a broad trough from the Arctic, through
the Bering Strait, and into the Northern Pacific. As this trough and
the ridge push against each other creating southerly flow across the
Alaska Range and keeping temperatures warm in the Interior. There
will be some moderate gap winds through Alaska Range passes with
wind gusts peaking at 35-45 mph. This pattern holds steady through
the weekend, but Sunday night into Monday an upper level shortwave
low out of eastern Siberia moves south and east towards the West
Coast accelerating ridge breakdown early next week. Models are in
very poor agreement on this feature with the GFS and NAM having
solutions significantly further north than the ECMWF and Canadian
solutions, however all models are showing a pattern of broad
troughing across the region by midweek with generally benign weather
expected.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Model disagreement is high, but broad troughing across the area is
expected following ridge breakdown early next week. Some light snow
is possible across most of the area by the end of next week, but
details are very uncertain. It should be significantly lighter than
what the West Coast and Interior experienced this week given
significantly lower moisture content across the region. Winds are
expected to be generally light and variable with temperatures
remaining near climatic normals.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
&&

$$

Stokes