513
FXAK69 PAFG 092118
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
118 PM AKDT Wed Oct 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Light snow continues to fall across the Central Interior,
marking the first snow for many across the area. The North Slope
remains mostly quiet with snow showers in the Brooks Range.
Strong Northerly winds will develop over the Bering Strait and
Saint Lawrence Island Friday and Saturday. A strong low will push
northward over the Interior over the weekend bringing more snow to
the Northern Interior, Brooks Range and E north slope. Gusty
Northeasterly winds will also develop over the higher terrain of
the Interior Friday and Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...

A weak upper low/shortwave will develop and track across the
Central Interior then move northward over the Brooks Range
tonight which will bring snow to the Northern Interior. Weak
southerly flow will develop over the Interior on Thursday and
Friday. A strong low pressure system will develop in the Bering
on Thursday and track across the Aleutians on Friday. A 520 upper
low will develop in the Bering Sea then track southeast and deepen
to 514 dam by late Thursday night. The low will then transition
into the Gulf Friday night into Saturday. A strong shortwave will
lift northward across the Alaska Range on Saturday and a 518 dam
low will develop over the Western Interior late Saturday night
and push northward on Sunday and move into the E Beaufort Sea
Sunday evening. Low pressure will remain in the Gulf on Sunday
into Monday. Troughing will remain over the Interior early next
week. Colder air will filter over the Brooks Range and Northern
Interior through next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...A weak shortwave aloft will
produce some light amounts of snow this morning and afternoon,
but higher terrain north of Fairbanks and along the Dalton Highway
has a chance to see a few inches, while the Fairbanks area may be
around an inch or less. This front will usher in cooler air and
temps will be on the downtrend Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty
Northeast winds will develop over higher terrain of the Northern
Interior on Friday and Saturday as well as a decent Tanana Valley
Jet near Delta Junction. Gusty south winds will develop in the E
Alaska Range as well. Low pressure will develop over the Central
Interior with precip beginning Saturday evening into Sunday.
Several inches of snow will be possible with this second system.
Most of the snow will be north of Fairbanks, but there is still a
chance for rain/snow mix for Fairbanks Saturday evening into
Sunday morning. Highs in the mid to upper 30s for highs and lows
in the 20s through Thursday. Temps will warm slightly on Friday
and Saturday.


West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong Bering Sea low will move into the southern Bering by
Friday morning producing strong northerly winds gusting up to 55
mph across St Lawrence Island, Bering Strait and the YK Delta
Coast. There will be elevated water offshore and high wave
heights but not expecting coastal flooding due to the northerly
wind direction. There will be occasional snow squalls producing
low visibility. Winds will gradually weaken during the day Sunday
as the storm gradually shifts into the Gulf of Alaska.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A Special Weather Statement is in effect for snow showers for the
NW Arctic Coast and Brooks Range through Friday as a weak upper
level low tracks over the area. Snow accumulations around 1 to 3
inches along the Dalton Highway and Brooks Range including Bettles
and Coldfoot. Otherwise, offshore flow east of Utqiagvik will
keep the fog at bay, but stratus will remain over the area.

Another Special Weather Statement has been issued for a
developing low pressure system over the weekend for the E Brooks
Range and E north slope. This will result in snow and blowing snow
reducing visibilities at times. Winds will initially be out of
the north Saturday becoming more westerly by late in the weekend.
Several inches of new snow will be possible with this system,
especially over portions of the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Northerly winds of 35 to 45 mph with
gusts to near 55 mph are expected through the Bering Straight
Friday and Saturday, affecting the Diomede Islands, western
Seward Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island, and coastal YK Delta. Snow
squalls are likely and can quickly reduce visibility at times.
Elsewhere, we`ll continue to monitor the potential for a strong
low to lift northward from southcentral Alaska into the Interior,
potentially bringing another round of snowfall to the Northern
Interior, Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern north slope Saturday
night into Sunday, as well as strong winds through the gaps in the
AK Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Along the West Coast,
northerly winds will ramp back up to gale force on Friday as a
strong low pressure system pushes into the Gulf of AK.



&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

JK