639
FXAK69 PAFG 282240
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 PM AKDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light freezing rain is likely across parts of the Central
  Interior (Tanana/Lake Minchumina) late tonight into Thursday,
  with a chance that some of light freezing rain and snow
  spreading into the Fairbanks Metro and Nenana areas after
  midnight. A continued chance of rain and snow Thursday night
  through Friday will keep road conditions slick and hazardous.

- Wind advisories remain in place through Thursday morning for
  the Northern Denali Borough and Eastern Alaska Range north of
  Trims Camp. Southerly gap winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts to
  65 mph will cause localized blowing snow and reduced
  visibility along the Richardson and Parks Highways, with gusty
  southerly flow persisting through Friday when even strong gap
  winds could occur.

- Light snow expands into more continuous snowfall Thursday
  through Saturday across higher terrain with greatest accumulations
  across the Southern Denali Borough, Alaska Range, and South
  Slopes of the Central Brooks Range.

- Unseasonably mild conditions will continue for a few more days
  with highs in the mid 30s to near 40 and lows in the 20s and low
  30s through Saturday. These temperatures are about 10 to 15
  degrees above the late October seasonable averages.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain showers across the West Coast and Western Interior
  transition to snow overnight in valley bottoms and areas above
  1,500 feet. Additional accumulating snow of 4 to 6 inches will
  impact the South Slopes of the Western Brooks Range through
  late tonight.

- A brief weather lull Thursday morning gives way to widespread
  rain and snow showers spreading inland Thursday night through
  Friday as ex-Typhoon Champi moves across the region, bringing
  localized blowing snow along exposed coastal areas.

- Elevated sea levels of 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide
  line will cause minor flooding of low lying areas around
  Hooper Bay and the Yukon Delta from Thursday morning through
  late Friday night.

- Rain and snow showers shift to primarily snow on Saturday, with
  gusty winds maintaining localized blowing snow and reduced
  visibility across coastal and higher elevation zones.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- South to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph will generate areas
  of blowing snow along the Western, Northwest, and Northern Arctic
  Coasts tonight through Thursday morning, causing localized
  reductions in visibility.

- A mix of rain and snow continues across the Chukchi Sea and
  Northern Arctic coasts (Point Hope to Utqiagvik) tonight through
  Thursday. Coastal snow accumulations remain negligible
  through Thursday night due to marginal temperatures.

- Strong south winds of 25 to 35 mph and blowing snow will impact
  Howard Pass and parts of the Western Brooks Range tonight.
  Snow becomes likely across the Central Brooks Range Thursday
  night through Friday, expanding into the Romanzof Mountains
  Friday night and Saturday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue as highs in the 30s and
  lows in the 20s persist across most of the North Slope
  through Saturday, maintaining well above normal thermal trends
  for late October.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A front pushing into the Central Interior tonight through Thursday
brings rain, snow, and light freezing rain, leading to slick travel
conditions. Heavy mountain snow continues across the Brooks and
Alaska Ranges. Late Thursday into Friday, ex- Typhoon Champi tracks
into the southern Bering Sea, returning widespread rain/snow showers
and localized coastal blowing snow yo Western Alaska. Strong
southerly gap winds through the ALaska Range passes will persist
through Friday. Meanwhile temperatures remain some 10 to 15 degrees
warmer than Normal through Saturday before cooling late weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An active weather pattern remains anchored over the region as an
eastward moving frontal boundary embedded within a shortwave
taps into moisture associated with an atmospheric river
originating near 30N. Rain showers across the West Coast and
Western Interior will transition to snow Wednesday night in
valley locations and above 1,000 feet, with additional snow
accumulations between 4 and 6 inches across the southern slopes
of the Brooks Range. As moisture shifts inland into Thursday,
liquid precipitation totals will generally range from a trace to
0.25 inches, with the highest amounts north and west of Tanana.
Light freezing rain is likely across parts of the Central
Interior around Tanana and Lake Minchumina late Wednesday night
into Thursday, with a chance that some light freezing rain and
snow spreads into the Fairbanks Metro and Nenana areas after
midnight. Strong winds will accompany this initial front, as
south to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph drive areas of blowing
snow and localized visibility reductions along the Western,
Northwest, and Northern Arctic Coasts tonight through Thursday
morning. Farther south, Wind Advisories remain in effect through
Thursday morning for the Northern Denali Borough and Eastern
Alaska Range. Southerly gap winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts up
to 65 mph will cause localized blowing snow and reduced
visibility along the Richardson and Parks Highways.

A brief lull Thursday morning will give way to widespread rain and
snow showers spreading inland Thursday night through Friday as ex-
Typhoon Champi advances across the region. Elevated sea levels of 2
to 4 feet above normal high tide will cause minor flooding of low-
lying areas around Hooper Bay and the Yukon Delta from Thursday
morning through late Friday night. This system will bring localized
blowing snow to coastal areas, though a wintry mix continuing across
the Chukchi Sea and Northern Arctic coasts from Point Hope through
Utqiagvik Wednesday night through Thursday will yield negligible
coastal snow accumulations due to warmer air advection from the
south. Inland, a strong pressure gradient will set up over the
Alaska Range, maintaining gusty southerly flow through Friday, when
potentially stronger gap winds could occur, with the possibility of
gusts reaching 60 to 80 mph. Precipitation expands significantly,
with snow becoming likely across the Central Brooks Range Thursday
night through Friday. Light snow will also transition into
continuous snowfall Thursday through Saturday across higher terrain,
bringing the greatest accumulations to the Southern Denali Borough,
Alaska Range, and the southern slopes of the Central Brooks Range.
Continued chances of rain and snow Thursday night into Friday will
keep road conditions hazardous across the Interior. By Saturday,
rain and snow showers will transition primarily to snow, with gusty
winds maintaining localized blowing snow and reduced visibility
across higher elevations. Through this active period, unseasonably
mild conditions will continue before cooling going into the weekend
as broad troughing sets up across the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
General troughing from Ex-Typhoon Champi is expected to linger
through the weekend, with some high pressure building in from the
southwest and east over portions of Central and Eastern Alaska.
Models are depicting any remnants of Typhoon Champi to weaken and
move to the southeast by late Saturday night into Sunday, allowing
for a brief break from elevated wind gusts and precipitation on the
West Coast. However, another storm is on the horizon and likely to
move into the Bering Sea by the end of the weekend. By Sunday night,
models are tracking the storm farther east, with strong
southeasterly winds likely to pick up around this time over the YK
Delta Coast. Any precipitation associated with this system is
expected to be in the form of rain along the coastline and Western
Interior, with higher elevations likely receiving a rain/snow mix.
More details regarding coastal impacts will be provided as models
continue to update. Coastal erosion is likely to remain ongoing with
strong winds.

Moisture from this system is likely to bring snow to higher terrain
in the Central and Eastern Interior. Temperature-wise, most of the
Interior is likely to experience a gradual cooling trend to begin
November.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
The main coastal impact through the period stems from the remnants
of Typhoon Champi moving into the southern Bering Sea Thursday
morning through late Friday. A coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect for Hooper Bay and the Yukon Delta Coast as a result. Expect
elevated water levels of 4 to as much as 6 feet above the average
high tide, resulting in minor flooding of low lying areas along with
further beach erosion. Farther north along Norton Sound, impacts
remain minor with water levels generally rising to between 1 and 3
feet. Along the Chuckhi Sea coastline south to southwest winds of 15
to 30 mph will generate localized blowing snow resulting in lowered
visibility at times through Thursday morning. Looking into next
week, guidance continues to indicate a complex low pressure system
in the southern Bering Sea, though track confidence and potential
coastal impacts for Western Alaska remain low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Repeated rounds of precipitation from an eastward moving cold front
today and tonight followed by ex-Typhoon Champi late Thursday into
Friday will keep rivers and streams elevated across primarily the
West Coast and Seward Peninsula onto the weekend. The highest
hydrologic impacts remain focused near Nome. Precipitation at lower
elevations will alternate between rain and snow, while higher
terrain receives mostly snow, which should help mitigate any rapid
headwater runoff.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
     morning for AKZ812.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ813-814.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM AKDT
     Saturday for AKZ825.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ847-849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ801-850-851-859.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802-
     803.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ802-805-806-816-817-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ804-
     852-853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ804-852.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807-
     811-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ808-809-
     855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ808-809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ814.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for
     PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Thursday for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
     Thursday for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Thursday for PKZ861.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SYNOPSIS.......Laney
SHORT TERM.....Satcher
LONG TERM......Srinivasan
COASTAL........Laney
HYDROLOGY......Laney