007
FXAK69 PAFG 121021
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
221 AM AKDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Typhoon Halong continue to move up the West Coast
of Alaska. The storm is verifying further east than previously
forecasted which is pushing the strongest winds further inland and
significantly reducing the risk of record high water levels in
the Norton Sound. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for most of
the West Coast and Western Interior. Coastal Flood Warnings
remain in effect for most of the West Coast.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Eastern Alaska Range.
Wind Advisories have been issued for the Central Interior and
Western Alaska Range.

- Strong southerly winds expected through Sunday night. The strongest
  gusts up to 55 mph are expected at higher elevations, above
  1000 feet, and west of Fairbanks.
-Strong southerly winds expected through Alaska Range passes up to
     80 mph north of Isabel Pass and up to 60 mph through Windy
     Pass.

- Areas of moderate to heavy rain are expected to move through the
  Central Interior and into the southern Brooks Range Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The remnants of Typhoon Halong have formed into a strong
extratropical cyclone that is continuing to move north along the
West Coast. As of midnight early Sunday morning the storm center
was located between St. Matthew Island and Nunivak Island. The
storm is expected to continue to move north-northeast across the
Seward Peninsula and through the Western Brooks Range through
Sunday. Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for most of the
West Coast of Alaska. High Wind Warnings have been issued for the
West Coast and Western Interior. Winter Storm Warnings have been
issued for the Western and Central Brooks Range.

- The Yukon Delta begins to see its greatest impacts early Sunday
  morning Across the YK Delta, wind gusts in the 80-100 mph range
  will be possible along the coast, with gusts to 60-80 mph
  inland. The highest water levels are expected to occur from
  Sunday morning through Monday morning with heights of 6 to 11
  feet possible.

- Very strong south winds move north into the Seward Peninsula
  Sunday morning. Water levels will rise throughout the day Sunday
  and remain high overnight into Monday morning. The more easterly
  track of the storm is sheltering the southern Seward Peninsula
  somewhat from the worst of the storm surge causing lower water
  levels than previously forecast. Water levels will still be high
  though.

- Strong wind gusts exceeding 50 mph are possible across the
  Western Interior, especially in the higher terrain, as the storm
  moves north Sunday into Monday.

- This is a very wet system with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain
  expected for much of the West Coast and Western Interior.

- Please continue to monitor this dangerous storm.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
Coastal Flood Watches Issued for Sunday-Monday. Winter Storm
Warnings have been issued for the Western and Central Brooks
Range.

- Heavy snow begins early Sunday morning primarily west of Atigun
  Pass with accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible, primarily at
  elevation. Strong winds gusting to 75 mph will produce areas of
  blowing snow that could significantly reduce visibility. The
  heaviest snow is expected west of the Atigun Pass Sunday morning
  through Sunday night.

- Erosion and coastal flooding remain possible along the Northwest
  Coast on Sunday and Monday. The highest water levels are
  expected to be less than they reached during last week`s storm.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The remnants of Typhoon Halong continues to move up the West
Coast. It`s position has trended east of initial guidance and its
center was positioned roughly equidistant between St. Matthew
Island and Nunivak Island as of midnight early Sunday morning.
This further easterly track decreases the risk of record high
water in the Norton sound, but increases the risk of strong,
gusty, winds along the West Coast and parts of the Western
Interior. Hurricane force wind gusts are expected for much of the
West Coast with the strongest gusts from 80 to 100 mph expected
between Hooper Bay and Kotlik. Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph expected
for other parts of the West Coast including the southern Seward
Peninsula and some parts of the Western Interior. Gusts up to 50
mph are possible as far inland as the Dalton Highway Summits.
Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected for much of the
West Coast and Western Interior. Heavy snowfall is expected for
the Western and Central Brooks Range through Sunday night.

The remnants of Typhoon Halong are expected to continue north-
northeast through the Norton Sound and across the Seward Peninsula
by Sunday afternoon and across the Western North Slope through
Sunday night. High water in the wake of this storm will quickly
subside Monday for much of the West Coast, although for the North
Slope elevated water levels may linger through Tuesday. The storm
weakens quickly through Sunday and Monday dropping from its peak
around 960mb early Sunday morning to around 970mb Sunday afternoon
as it enters the Western Brooks Range to around 978mb as it moves
across the Western North Slope Sunday night into Monday morning.
The storm continues east into the Beaufort Sea and then into
Canada through Monday.

After Halong exits the region Monday, a significantly weaker
system moving into southern Alaska will drape additional moisture
over the southern Interior, primarily affecting areas missed by
precipitation from Halong in the Southeastern Interior and Tanana
Valley. Some lighter rains are expected to continue along the West
Coast, primarily along south facing slopes.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the start of the extended forecast period, Tuesday night, a
strong low will have just reached the south Bering Sea. This low
is expected to move east along the Aleutians towards Bristol Bay
and into southwest Alaska, weakening rapidly. Some gusty,
primarily northerly, winds are expected across the West Coast and
parts of the Interior along with considerable moisture bringing
areas of rain and snow across the state. This storm will not be
nearly as strong as the previous coastal storms and expected
impacts are relatively minor. Cooler air wraps into this system
from the north allowing for relatively cooler temperatures for the
latter half of the week.

Confidence is still fairly low for the exact track and strength of
this next low, but even the current worst case scenarios are
significantly weaker than the previous coastal storms.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Another strong low moves into the southern Bering Sea Tuesday
afternoon and is expected to move east towards Bristol Bay. Some
minor coastal impacts are possible with this next system such as
slightly elevated surf and gusty winds.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ801.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ802.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ825-827-849.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ846-852.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ812-831-832.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ813-819-828>830.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ814>818-820>824-826.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ815.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ816>818.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ803.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ822.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ824.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ825-827.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ807-809.
PK...Storm Warning for PKZ801.
     Storm Warning for PKZ802-803-852.
     Storm Warning for PKZ804.
     Storm Warning for PKZ805-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ808-809-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Storm Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Stokes