438
FXAK69 PAFG 222203
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
103 PM AKST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A high impact weather pattern continues to evolve
across northern Alaska as a parade of storms moves up the West
Coast. The most impactful storm arrives late on Thursday, bringing
high winds, heavy snow above 1000 ft elevation, blowing snow, and
low elevation rain to the West Coast and Western Interior before
pushing into the Central and Eastern Interior Friday through the
weekend. Very cold temperatures, possibly the coldest thus far this
winter, will follow this system and settle across the area by the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Much warmer than normal temperatures continue this week with highs
mostly in the 20s before most areas reach the 30s on Friday and over
the weekend.

- Heavy wet snow begins late Thursday night and continue through
  Friday, mainly north and west of Fairbanks. By Friday evening,
  over a foot of snow is expected at higher terrain along the
  Dalton Highway between the Yukon River and Atigun Pass.

- Snow mixes with or changes to rain below 1000 ft elevation with up
to 0.25" of rain, mainly across the Y-K Delta.

- Ahead of the cold front, southerly gap winds may reach 75 mph
through Alaska Range passes Friday and Saturday. High Wind Watches
are in effect.

- Southerly winds may gust to 60 mph over Twelvemile and Eagle
Summits Thursday night into Friday.

- A NE to SW oriented cold front stalls across the interior this
weekend with heavy snowfall west of the front likely. The position
of the front is low confidence, but a sharp west to east snowfall
gradient is expected in the vicinity of Fairbanks. Light rain is
expected to mix with snow along and east of the cold front.

- Behind the cold front, very cold temperatures -possibly the
coldest of the winter so far- are expected by the middle to end of
next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through this evening for
the southern Seward Peninsula Coast, Bendeleben Mountains, and Kobuk
Valley, but snowfall is diminishing.

- A fast-moving system brings mainly light snow this evening with
rain mixing in tonight into tomorrow. Winds below 30 mph and
snowfall amounts mainly less than 3 inches suggests headlines are
not necessary, but light rain mixing in at lower elevations on
Thursday may result in patchy icing.

- A potentially high-impact storm brings strong winds, heavy snow,
and heavy low-elevation rain Thursday into Friday as the storm
quickly lifts northeast. Southerly gusts over 60 mph are possible,
but temperatures near to above 32F should temper blowing snow
impacts. Another foot of snow is possible along the Nulato Hills,
Seward Peninsula and Kobuk Valley.

- Water is expected to come up through cracks in the sea ice and
make travel over the sea ice very difficult for much of the West
Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Strong winds and snow will begin to develop over the western north
slope and Brooks Range on Friday as a strong low pressure system and
tight gradient swiftly moves across the area. Southwest winds
gusting as high as 75 mph are possible Friday evening when
blizzard conditions are possible from Point Hope to Wainwright.

- More seasonable temperatures return to the area Sunday through
early next week when a wave of light snow is possible across the
eastern North Slope.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...A 995 mb low pressure and
associated area of snow from the Seward Peninsula to the Kobuk
Valley weakens and shifts northeast into the Brooks Range tonight. A
faster moving system brings deep southwest flow and additional rain
and snow to the West Coast and Western Interior late tonight and
Thursday. A strong storm embedded within the deep SW flow rapidly
lifts north from the Pribilof Islands Thursday afternoon to Point
Hope by Friday morning. The warm sector of this system taps a feed
of moisture from as far south as Hawaii resulting in a Pineapple
Express Atmospheric River scenario. Heavy snow is expected on the
cool side of the arctic front Saturday through Monday with a
rain/snow mix along and ahead of the front. Considerable uncertainty
in the frontal location remains with the most likely position
between Nenana and Galena though possibly as far east as Fairbanks.
Ensembles indicate that precipitation amounts near and along the
boundary will be between 1" and 2.5" of liquid equivalent through
the middle of next week.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...Active weather continues
into the extended period, with the period beginning with heavy
precipitation along the Arctic front boundary on Sunday. The front
is most likely to set up somewhere between Nenana and Galena, with
the heaviest precipitation falling on the cool side of the boundary.
Models seems to be trending toward a low pressure lifting north
along the front around Monday that should push the atmospheric river
east of our forecast area. Behind the boundary, very cold
temperatures will set in. These temperatures may be the coldest of
the winter in some locations, and will likely last through next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The storm entering the
Bering Sea on Thursday will produce near Storm-force winds offshore
as well as possible water moving over the ice or through any open
leads along the coastlines of the Y-K Delta and Norton Sound and
Northwest Alaska late Thursday into Friday. Shorefast ice may be
lifted, and minor flooding may occur in areas where shorefast ice is
lifted. There is a high amount of uncertainty in terms of what the
impacts of this storm will be due to the track, time of year, and
ice extent. Without ice in place, this would be a major coastal
storm. Given the extent of the ice and thickness, impacts are
expected to be minimal, so no coastal flood products will be issued
at this time. The potential for coastal impacts remains south of
Hooper Bay and Nunivak Island.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801>803-806-807.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ812.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-816-819-822-823.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ831.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ832.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-806-810-811-816-817-850-853-856-
     857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$