422
FXAK69 PAFG 112216
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
216 PM AKDT Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong vertically stacked low pressure system in the
Bering Sea will swing a front from the Yukon Delta to the Central
Interior through Tuesday, bringing a quick change in conditions
from sunny and calm to cloudy, rainy, and even snowy through the
Alaska Range Passes. Blizzard conditions ongoing along the eastern
Arctic Coast are expected to abate this evening. A warming and
drying trend will begin again on Wednesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-A front brings widespread showers to the Southern Interior Monday
 through Tuesday. Most rain will be from Fairbanks south to the
 Alaska Range. Rain totals of 1 to 2 tenths of an inch expected.
 The most likely scenario for Fairbanks still appears to be just a
 short period of light rain overnight Monday into Tuesday

-Easterly winds increase ahead of the front Sunday night with
 gusts up to 25 mph expected in many valleys and up to 35 mph
 possible at elevation. Winds diminish Tuesday.

-Precipitation with the front will begin as rain, but snow levels
 will fall to around 1500 feet Monday night, with accumulating
 snow possible along the Parks and Richardson Highways through the
 Alaska Range. See Special Weather Statement for more details.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-A low-pressure system moves into the eastern Bering Sea this
 morning. A front ahead of it will bring widespread rainfall to
 the West Coast from the Bering Strait south and to the
 southwestern Interior Sunday night through Tuesday, with rainfall
 amounts of 3 to 5 tenths of an inch possible south of Nome.

-Gusty easterly winds ahead of the front ramp up Sunday with
 coastal areas from the Bering Strait south seeing sustained
 speeds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts to near 40 mph possible. St.
 Lawrence Island and the YK Delta will see stronger winds with
 sustained values of 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph possible.
 Winds ease Monday.

-Showery conditions from the Seward Peninsula south on Tuesday,
 then drying and warming expected Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
-Blizzard conditions persist at Barter Island through Sunday
 afternoon and into the early evening.

-Light snow across the North Slope tapers off overnight Sunday,
 though low stratus will persist as high pressure drifts south
 over the area.

-Winds turn easterly overnight Sunday and increase to 20 to 30 mph
 through the day Monday. Blowing snow could reduce visibility,
 especially near Point Lay. A Winter Weather Advisory may be
 needed.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...High pressure persists over
the Chukchi Sea while a trough swinging down from the Arctic
continues to bring light snow to the Arctic Coast. Blizzard
conditions continue this afternoon at Point Thomson and Kaktovik.
Winds are expected to ease this evening and turn back to easterly
tomorrow. Northwest flow across the Interior with a building ridge
to the south is keeping skies mostly clear, temperatures near
climatological norms, and winds breezy. Significant change will
come to most areas south of the Brooks Range early this week as a
front originating from the vertically stacked low pressure system
in the Bering Sea brings rain from the Yukon Delta late this
evening and pushes into the Interior Monday. Snow levels will fall
to around 1500 feet Monday night into Tuesday, meaning snow is
likely along the Parks and Richardson Highways through the Alaska
Range. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for that and made
adjustments to the forecast. Precipitation will start as rain
there Monday mid-day then turn to snow in the late evening and
overnight. Total precipitation amounts will range from 0.5" near
the Yukon Delta and in the Eastern Alaska Range to 0.25" near Nome
to 0.1" or less for Fairbanks. A warming and drying trend begins
again on Wednesday for most of the area as an upper high over the
Arctic nudges its way south over the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidity will drop into the teens across
Interior Valleys today with breezy west winds especially across
the Tanana Valley east of Salcha. Wind gusts should remain 25 mph
or less. The arrival of a front from the Bering Sea overnight
tonight and into Monday will moderate conditions considerably.
Minimum RH values increase to around 30% for Monday and 40% on
Tuesday before another drying trend begins Wednesday. The front
from the Bering Sea will be quite stable, so no thunderstorms are
expected. Wetting rains are likely from the Yukon Delta to the
Seward Peninsula and south of a line from Kaltag to Nenana to
Chicken through Tuesday. Areas north of this line will have
difficulty accumulating much rainfall due to a northerly gradient
bringing in dry air at the surface from the Arctic. The Fairbanks
area may only see a brief period of light rain on Monday night
with little if any precipitation expected north of Fairbanks.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Based on ice running by Galena for most of the day on
Saturday, it is likely that the in-place ice on the Yukon River
from the Boneyard to the Nowitna River is getting pushed out. The
river is open from Ruby down to Kaltag with continuing ice and
ice stranded in shallow areas. In-place ice remains several miles
below Kaltag as of Saturday evening. On the Koyukuk River, the
river ice at Huslia lifted on Friday and is thermally degraded but
in-place down to Winthrop Point. Below Winthrop Point the river
is a mix of degraded in-place ice on bends alternating with open
stretches to near the mouth which is open for several miles
upstream from Koyukuk community.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...High pressure persists over the
Arctic until early next week. There is above average uncertainty
on how the pattern plays out over the West Coast, though features
generally look weak and . Across the interior, weak ridging
should keep precipitation limited and skies mostly sunny, though
the high pressure to the north along with low pressure in the Gulf
of Alaska should allow for some showers near the Alaska Range,
mainly south of Fairbanks. Temperatures climb each day across
Northern Alaska through next week. By next weekend, 70 degrees
will be possible in the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-852-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Chriest