639
FXAK69 PAFG 070158
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
458 PM AKST Wed Nov 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening 977 mb low near Kipnuk phases with a deepening low
pressure approaching Kodiak Island late tonight into Thursday
morning before weakening to a remnant low over the Seward Peninsula
Friday evening. The pressure gradient tightens across northern
Alaska as this low pressure approaches the Alaska Range, but winds
are expected to be lighter than earlier this week. Blizzard
conditions observed earlier this week have subsided and additional
improvement is expected. Pressure/height gradients weaken over the
weekend allowing for a period of high-latitude doldrums with
generally low-impact weather. Other than diminishing winds, the
primary change in weather going into early next week is the
transition to a seasonably cool/dry pattern with less cloudiness.

KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Breezy south winds gusting up to 50 mph continue through the
afternoon at Isabel Pass before weakening overnight.
- Gradually cooling trend begins late this week with highs in the
single digits/teens and lows near/below 0 by Sunday.
- Temperatures continue cooling early next week as surface ridging
builds across the area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Persistent east-northeast winds around 30 mph with gusts to around
40 mph continue this aftn along the Arctic Coast, but visibility has
improved above blizzard criteria and is expected to stay there.
- Winds gradually diminish through the end of the week, but a brief
period of renewed ENE winds gusting up to 40 mph is expected during
the day on Thursday before more rapid improvements Thursday night.
- A cool front moves through on Saturday bringing renewed sea-effect
snow shower chances, but amounts and winds appear light so impacts
are expected to stay minor.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered rain and snow showers bring around an inch of snow to
the YK Delta region through tonight, but lower elevations north of
Kotlik remain mostly dry. Wet surface are likely to freeze overnight.
- Dry weather then persists this weekend with temperatures gradually
cooling to near seasonal norms by early next week when below 0F lows
are possible.
- A low pressure moves over the Bering Sea Tue/Wed that brings
potential for more active weather Wed-Fri next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 979 mb low near Hooper Bay continues to weaken while spreading
scattered rain/snow showers across the YK Delta, mainly this
evening. Amounts are expected to be light with snow accumulation of
up to 2-4 inches at higher elevations and lighter amounts generally
less than an inch at sea level. Once temperatures drop below
freezing tonight any wet surfaces should freeze and become slippery,
but breezy conditions will help to dry out some of the wet surfaces.
Elsewhere, strong east-northeast winds continue to gust in the 35-45
mph range along the Arctic Coast, but visbility has improved
considerably in most locations suggesting there isn`t much undrifted
snow left to blow around. The primary exception is in zones 802-803
(Utqiagvik and Wainwright) where snow showers are still producing
some blowable snow, but even there vsby has mostly been 1 SM or
better.

The upper level energy associated with the YK Delta low phases with
a deepening low south of the Alaska Peninsula tonight. This
temporarily weakens winds along the Arctic Coast, but another period
of strengthening winds arrives on Thursday as the deepening low
approaches the Anchorage area on Thursday. This upcoming period of
stronger winds (gusts of 35-45 mph) is mostly a bump in the road
toward improving conditions and blowing snow impacts are expected to
stay minor to perhaps negligble.

A drier and generally quiet period of weather closes out the week
and continues into early next week as weak disturbances rippling
across the area gives way to ridging early next week. This period of
mostly dry weather allows for more breaks in cloudiness and a
gradual cooling trend. The only mentionable chance of light snow is
Thursday evening into Friday morning across the southeastern
interior where up to an inch of snow is possible. Otherwise,
interior valley locations are increasingly likely to see low temps
dipping into the teens below 0F Tues/Wed morning next week as
ridging at the surface and aloft builds across most of Alaska.

Extended Forecast days 4-7...Generally quiet weather remains over
Northern AK through Wednesday, then attention turns to a
developing low pressure over the Bering Sea Tue/Wed next week as
the upper level pattern amplifies. Confidence is increasing that
there will be a storm, but the tricky part is...where. As of now,
ensemble spread is large, but the amplified pattern suggests
slower, deeper, and farther west solutions are more likely. If
that occurs then areas of strong winds, locally heavy
precipitation, and coastal flooding concerns may emerge later next
week. It is way too early to speculate about the magnitude of
impacts, but a more active period of weather with potential for
widespread impacts is increasingly likely late next week,
especially for the west coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802-803.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-816-817-851-852-854-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812>815-858>861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ813-815-859-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814-858-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
&&

$$