318
FXAK69 PAFG 302206
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
206 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow showers exit to the north as another front moves in from
  the south bringing snow this afternoon through Thursday.
  Thursday morning may be a slick commute as snow begins to
  accumulate around the area.

- Snow accumulations by Thursday afternoon will be around 6 to
  11 inches in Isabel Pass, around 1.5" or less around Fairbanks
  with 1 to 3" north and east of Fairbanks.

- Other than lingering snow showers Friday and Saturday, there
  will be a drying trend with chilly temperatures through
  Saturday. Friday and Saturday mornings may be the coldest of
  the season so far depending on cloud cover.

- A cooling trend persists in the Interior through Friday and it
  gradually increases by Saturday afternoon. Lows Friday and
  Saturday morning likely in the teens and low 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Breezy with snow showers on the coast today. Then weaker wind
  tomorrow/Friday with isolated rain/snow showers on Friday.
  Clouds increase Saturday with a Bering Sea low approaching.

- There may be some rain and offshore wind with this Bering Sea
  storm late this weekend into next week, more on this in the
  extended.

- The Interior remains dry with mixed clouds and sun through the
  weekend.

- Temperatures cool a few degrees through Saturday with lows in
  the teens and 20s each morning and highs mainly in the 30s to
  near 40. Temperatures gradually rise later in the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Areas of snow persist on the North Slope. Expect 2 to 4 inches
  along the coast through Friday. A couple of very localized
  areas may receive up to 6 inches over 3 days.

- A drying trend arrives this weekend with temperatures
  remaining fairly chilly.

- Expect high temperatures in the 20s with lows in the single
  digits and teens. The Brooks Range may get temperature
  readings below zero Friday and Saturday mornings.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather remains over Northern Alaska with snow moving
into the Interior today through Thursday dropping light snow
and the first accumulating snow for many locations. Snow
continues along the North Slope through Friday with several
inches possible over the 3 day period. Snow showers persist over
the West Coast with breezy conditions, through there will be
improvement tomorrow with showers returning on Friday.
Temperatures across the area will be below normal and during
periods of clear skies, many spots likely get into the teens or
single digits with the Brooks Range approaching negative values,
especially towards Friday and Saturday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Active weather remains as troughing persists over Northern
Alaska. There are 2 main features being monitored over the next
few days. One of which is a front moving north from the Gulf
while the other is an upper level trough moving over the North
Slope. Both of these systems will bring snow to much of the area
over the next few days. Beginning with the North Slope, the
upper level trough will dig towards Utqiagvik and support a
surface low to develop just to the northeast. The west side of
the low will pull very cold 850mb temperatures south over the
relatively warm ocean. This supports a strong temperature
gradient which could result in areas of moderate snow at times
today and tomorrow. Snow is also expected on the east side of
this low over the Beaufort Sea Coast. Periods of snow will
continue through Friday night before ending thereafter and
when all is said and done, snowfall amounts will range from 2 to
4 inches. There will be isolated spots with higher amounts up to
6 inches across the Arctic Coast and this is dependent on where
the heaviest areas of snow develop. After this snow ends Friday
night, the weekend dries out with chilly temperatures
remaining. Under any periods of clear skies, temperatures will
likely plummet as 850mb temperatures range from -10F to -15F. If
this were winter, it would be well below zero but since the
waters off the coast are still open and there is sunlight
(albeit lessening day by day), temperatures should bottom out in
the teens/single digits along the coast with near or slightly
below zero temperatures in the Brooks Range.

Over in the Interior, the cold front that moved through
yesterday has provided cold air to the area which is the
precursor to snow expected from today through Thursday. Snow has
already begun in the Eastern Alaska Range and will continue to
become steady and heavy at times by tonight. This will gradually
move north into the Central and Eastern Interior this evening
and tonight, though weakening in intensity. Snowfall over the
Interior tomorrow will persist through Thursday afternoon and
gradually end from south to north as an arctic trough swings
through with some dry air behind it. When all the snow is
over with by Thursday evening, snowfall totals will be around 1
to 3 inches in the Interior with 6 to 11 inches in the Eastern
AK Range. After this, temperatures will drop as skies partially
clear, leading to some of the coldest days and especially
mornings of the year so far. Many locations Friday and Saturday
mornings will be in teens and low 20s with some of the coldest
spots approaching the single digits. Regardless, temperatures
will come back up to near normal thereafter as southerly flow
increases.

Much of the same in Western Alaska in terms of below normal
temperatures through Saturday morning as skies gradually clear.
The only precipitation expected in the near term is coming as
snow showers along the coast today and a weak front bringing
rain and snow showers on Friday. Snow accumulations will be
light and mainly along the Chukchi Sea Coast, and there may even
be some rain that mixes in near Kivalina and the Bering Strait.
Temperatures will largely be in the 30s for highs with teens and
20s for lows, coldest in the Western Interior through the
weekend. Otherwise, there aren`t too many weather hazards in
the short term. There will however, be a Bering Sea low that
moves towards Western Alaska late this weekend into next week
which may have some wind and rain, but that will be elaborated
on in the long term below.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast period begins with a ridge building in over
Alaska. By Saturday evening, this ridge will rapidly weaken as a
coastal storm begins traveling eastward towards the Kuskokwim
Delta. While the most significant impacts of this storm are
directed out of our area, some gusty winds can still be felt
throughout northern Alaska. Within the Interior, areas of higher
terrain, have the potential to see 30 to 40 mph gusts
throughout Sunday morning, diminishing by Sunday afternoon. At
the same time increased wind speeds are expected along the West
Coast and North Slope, with most areas peaking at about 40 mph.
Gusts may increase in localized areas early next week along the
North Slope, with the Northwest and Northeast Arctic Coastline
having the potential to reach gusts up to 60 mph by Monday
morning. These increased gusts may contribute to periods of
blowing snow that last through Tuesday morning.

Looking further ahead there is potential for another coastal
storm to head towards our area late next week. As this system is
far out there is low confidence on the exact track this storm
will take. If this storm tracks southeasterly, most of the
impacts it will bring will be directed out of our area. However,
if this systems path trends more northerly, this could bring
another round gusty winds, coastal flooding, and precipitation
to be directed towards our area late next week. This storm will
continue to be monitored as models come to a more clear
agreement on its track and impacts.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No significant concerns but water levels may slightly rise about
1 to 2 feet above normal in the Yukon Delta once again on
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT Thursday for AKZ849-
     850.
MARINE...None.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...BIANCO
SYNOPSIS.......BIANCO
SHORT TERM.....BIANCO
LONG TERM......DONNER
COASTAL........BIANCO
HYDROLOGY......BIANCO