073
FXAK69 PAFG 272310
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
210 PM AKST Thu Feb 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Northern Alaska was mostly dry today, but satellite imagery
show increasing clouds with surface observations indicating a
gradual warming trend. A well defined warm front lifted into
Southern Alaska this morning and will continue lifting north
across the Brooks Range Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness and
warm southerly flow develops south of this feature, which should
result in spring like weather as temperatures warm to about 10-15F
above seasonal normals. A low pressure that`s currently south of
the Alaska Peninsula combines with troughing over the Bering Sea
to result in a persistently amplified pattern. The Alaska Range
scours out most of the moisture lifting north across the state,
except for across the West Coast where the mountains have less
influence. Starting Friday night, a series of weak disturbances
spread light snow northward along the West Coast and portions of
the western interior. Across the North Slope, temperatures warm
this weekend with snow chances reaching the western North Slope
early next week.

.DISCUSSION...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- South winds gusting up to about 60 mph are occurring this
afternoon in Isabel Pass, but should diminish by Friday morning
- Increasing clouds and southerly flow allow for a warming trend
with a daily freeze-thaw cycle possible through late next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Northeast winds gusting to 40 mph at Gambell result in minor
blowing snow this evening before diminishing overnight.
- Light snow chances spread northward along the West Coast Friday
night through the weekend and persist through much of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Wind chills persistently in the -30F to -55F range through
Saturday night (west) and Sunday night (east).
- Blowing and drifting snow reducing visibility to a half mile or
less may return to Point Lay late Friday night through Saturday.

Forecast Discussion and Analysis...

Generally low impact weather prevails throughout the forecast period
as southerly flow increases between a Bering Sea low and ridging
over western Canada. Southerly flow across the Alaska Range has
already warmed temperatures above freezing within Isabel Pass and
warm temperatures are expected to become more widespread as the warm
front lift north tonight and Friday. The most widespread above
freezing temperatures are expected across portions of the southern
interior including Fairbanks, Delta Junction, the White Mountains
and locations in between. A persistent freeze-thaw cycle is
increasingly likely every day for about a week between Friday Feb
28th and Thursday Mar 6th. A series of shortwaves embedded within
the southerly flow allows for light snowfall spreading north along
the West Coast beginning Friday night. While snowfall intensity is
expected to be light, off and on chances appears to persist for much
of next week. This may allow for localized double-digit snowfall
totals over a 4-6 day time frame next week. The highest amounts are
expected across higher elevation locations between the YK-Delta and
the western Brooks Range including the Nulato Hills. While snow is
expected to be the predominant p-type, rain may mix in on the
eastern fringes of the precipitation shield especially at elevations
near sea level. This persistently amplified pattern appears to break
down later next week when ensemble means advertise upper level
troughing spreading across the region. Snow chances appear to spread
inland late next week as ridging breaks down.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-811-812-854-856>858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$