638
FXAK69 PAFG 061039
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 AM AKDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Not much change to the forecast as mainly low impact weather
continues. Northerly winds gusting to gale force will gradually
weaken today in the Bering Strait. This northerly flow over the
water is also leading to sea effect rain and snow showers from
Wainwright to St. Lawrence Island. A front in the Eastern
Interior will bring a chance for light snow tonight into Monday,
this may bleed into the Central Interior also. Otherwise, stratus
and fog persists on the North Slope.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
A lot of moving parts in this forecast, but the main story is
broad upper level troughing with a 515 decameter anchoring low in
the Gulf of Alaska. The overall storm track continues to be to
the Gulf and the Panhandle. One thing we will be monitoring is a
strong piece of energy moving north from the Gulf to the Eastern
Interior tonight into tomorrow. Elsewhere, a deformation zone is
centered over the Bering Strait. Weak flow is located on the North
Slope.

Surface Analysis...
A 979 mb low in the Gulf will be gradually weakening through the
week. An occluded front is located out of the center then
southeast in the Central Gulf of Alaska. This front will rotate
north around the low providing some rain and snow to portions of
the Interior tonight into tomorrow. Northerly flow underneath a
deformation zone in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea will support
mixed snow and rain showers with accumulating snow likely in the
higher terrain, then eventually in lower spots on Monday. Along
the North Slope, weak flow and a subtle surface low is providing
stratus, fog and a few snow showers.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Benign weather today as winds weaken in Isabel Pass. Clouds will
be on the increase in the Eastern Interior as areas of snow breaks
out in the higher terrain of the Fortymile during the evening and
overnight. Light rain will move into the Tanana Valley overnight
which will transition to areas of light snow and rain. Otherwise,
expect snow around Eagle and Chicken which will continue through
Monday afternoon before ending. There may be some areas of light
snow or flurries around Fairbanks late tonight/early Monday
morning, though most remains east. Snowfall totals in the higher
terrain above 2500 feet will be around 1-2 inches, while Chicken
and Eagle have a chance for an inch or less. Otherwise, Tuesday
comes with a "cold" front which will help cool temperatures. The
cooling trend continues through Wednesday when there is another
slight chance for mixed rain and snow in the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Northerly winds gusting to gale force will gradually weaken in the
Bering Strait Region. Snow and rain showers will persist today
with snow in the higher terrain of the Seward Peninsula. Rain and
snow showers in lower spots will transition to all snow on
Monday. Minor snow accumulations around an inch or less are
possible, while higher totals up to a few inches are possible in
the terrain. Snow and rain showers become less numerous on
Tuesday, but remain around the coast as temperatures gradually
drop.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Conditions have mostly improved along the coast as winds have
become offshore. There will still be stratus and some areas of
fog, though it won`t be as prominent as yesterday. There will
also be snow showers, especially in the Western Arctic and Brooks
Range. Rain will mix in at times along the coast, while the
terrain stays all snow. Rain/snow showers persist through Monday,
then gradually lessen in coverage on Tuesday. Snowfall totals will
be around 0.5-2 inches from Utqiagvik to Point Hope, with the
highest amounts expected in the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Chances for snow increase in the Central Interior on Wednesday and
Thursday. An arctic front will move across the state as a piece of
its energy gets cut off and tries to develop a weak, closed upper
low in the Western Interior. There is some moisture with this
energy, leaving the potential accumulating snow, especially in the
higher elevations. As of now, there is some uncertainty in the
placement of the snow and it may end up just west of Fairbanks.
Otherwise, another low looks to develop in the Bering late next
week and drop into the Gulf of Alaska by the weekend prolonging
the troughing over the state.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805>807-810-811-816-817-850-851-853-
     854-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
&&

$$

Bianco