982
FXAK69 PAFG 032356
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 PM AKDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm activity is panning out as expected this
afternoon with multiple complexes of storms from the Nulato Hills
east to near Manley Hot Springs, as well as across the eastern
Brooks Range and near Circle. Expect similar activity tomorrow
with the focus of storms from Minchumina to Tanana to the White
Mountains. A strong arctic trough will crash into the North Slope
tonight, with high temperatures 15 to 30 degrees cooler on Monday
as compared to Sunday. 0.5" to 1.5" of rain is also expected south
of Umiat to the crest of the Brooks Range through Wednesday
night. Temperatures in the Interior warm back to near 80 on
Wednesday and Thursday after brief cooling Monday/Tuesday. The
West Coast will be mostly dry and warmer than normal through
Wednesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Dry and warm weather with plenty of sunshine for most areas.
  Highs mainly in the 70s continue through the week before cooling
  over the weekend.

- Increasing thunderstorm activity Sunday and Monday with widely
  scattered thunderstorms from Galena to Manley Hot Springs on
  Sunday and from Minchumina to Tanana to the White Mountains on
  Monday. Isolated storms near Tanana and along the Taylor Highway
  on Sunday.

- Southwest winds gusting to 25 mph over high terrain on Monday as
  the Arctic trough swings south.

- Showers and thunderstorms look to produce 0.5"-1.0" of rain
  through Wednesday night from Nenana to Fairbanks to Salcha.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Dry and warmer weather through the middle of the week with highs
  5 to 15 degrees above normal.

- Widely scattered storms across the Middle Yukon Valley on
  Sunday, isolated from McGrath to Huslia on Monday, and isolated
  from McGrath to Ruby on Tuesday.

- Conditions remain mostly dry along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Today will be the last warm afternoon as the Arctic trough comes
  surging south overnight tonight. Utqiagvik has already fogged in
  again as of 4pm Sunday.

- Increasing rain and 15 to 30 degrees cooler for all areas on
  Monday as an Arctic trough drops south over the area.

- 0.5"-1.5" of rain from Umiat south to the crest of the Brooks
  Range through Wednesday morning.

- Temperatures mainly in the 40s and 50s through the week with
  intermittent fog along the coast.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure over
the area continues to slowly weaken as 3 low pressure systems work
their way around and into the ridge. One is in the Bering Sea, one
over the panhandle, and one that is more of an Arctic trough with
the low centered over the northeastern Canadian Archipelago. This
arctic trough will come crashing into the arctic coast and North
Slope overnight tonight with temperatures dropping as much as 30
degrees across the central Arctic coast near Deadhorse, and 15-25
degrees elsewhere. This colder air aloft will bring additional
instability to the Interior, with increasing thunderstorm activity
expected Sunday and Monday afternoons. The Arctic trough will be
quite wet across the North Slope, with rainfall amounts 0.5"-1.5"
from Umiat south to the crest of the Brooks Range through
Wednesday night with multiple embedded waves of precipitation.
After additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, the ridge
begins to build back over the Interior Wednesday and Thursday.
There will likely be a number of spots across the Interior that
hit 80 degrees again by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy southwest winds across the northern
Interior and Yukon Flats may gust to 25 mph over high terrain this
afternoon and again on Monday afternoon. The ridge will weaken
slightly Monday and Tuesday, which will bring temperatures back
mainly into the low 70s across Interior areas. However, the ridge
builds back Wednesday and Thursday and there will likely be some
80s across the Interior by Thursday. With this being a dry north
pacific ridge, some locations could drop to near 25% RH on
Thursday, particularly the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile
Country. Southerly flow aloft looks weak, but will continue to
monitor for the possibility of weak chinook conditions providing
additional drying Wed/Thu. Cooling is expected over the weekend.
For thunderstorm activity, storms on Sunday are widely scattered
near the Yukon River and will be similar on Monday from Minchumina
to Tanana to the White Mountains. Thunderstorm activity decreases
some on Tuesday with isolated storms from McGrath to Livengood to
Eagle, and only isolated storms are expected Wednesday over the
Fortymile Country.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Tanana River at Manley Hot Springs briefly rose
into action stage on Saturday, but water levels are falling and
expected to continue to fall through midweek. No concerns at this
time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Beyond Thursday, cooling is expected
for all areas as another Arctic trough drops south over the West
Coast. Models have come into better agreement on the location of
the trough and low over the weekend being roughly from the eastern
Bering Sea to Wrangel Island. This will bring much cooler
temperatures on the West Coast, but more mild conditions to the
Interior compared to previous model solutions that would have been
much colder. As the longwave trough moves south of the Alaska
Range late this week along with the low over the weekend, expect
increasing rain and showers across most of northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
&&

$$

Chriest