110
FXAK69 PAFG 080041
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 PM AKST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong ridge of high pressure aloft is building over
Alaska with tropical moisture moving up the west side of the ridge
along the West Coast. This will bring dry and clear conditions to
the Interior and mixed precipitation along the West Coast. Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect for Sunday for the southern
Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta for snow and blowing snow
followed by rain and ice accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...

 - Cooler overnight temperatures expected through the weekend
   with passage of the cold front and clearer skies.

 - Strong inversions developing by Sunday with hills near
   freezing.

 - Dry conditions with clear skies expected through next week.

West Coast & Western Interior...

 - Another system will move up the west coast beginning Saturday
   afternoon. Light snow starting off, follow by a transition to a
   wintery mix from the YK Delta up to the Seward Peninsula.
   Precipitation expected to remain west of Galena. Western
   portions of the YK Delta will transition to rain by Saturday
   night. Further north near Nome, expect a transition to rain by
   Sunday late morning.

 - Majority of snowfall expected for areas north of the Seward
   Peninsula with the passage of the weather system. 1 to 3 inches
   of snowfall expected in these areas, except up to 5 inches in
   the mountains north of Nome.

 - Gusty winds expected along the coast with the weather system,
   may result in blowing snow for some areas and reduced
   visibility near the onset of the snowfall.

 - Windy and dry conditions expected for Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

 - Above normal temperatures will move in across the area with the
   system moving up the West Coast. Precipitation expected to be
   snow with this progressing system, with a slight chance of
   freezing rain. Snowfall expected along Southern portions of
   the Western Brooks Range and the Western Arctic Coast.

 - The northerly progression of the weather system across the west
   coast will tighten pressure gradients, resulting in southerly
   gap winds through Anaktuvuk and Atigun Passes beginning around
   midnight on Sunday, improving Monday morning.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...High pressure continues to
build over the eastern Interior under a strong ridge aloft.
Tropical moisture is beginning to stream northward along the west
coast, but is being somewhat blocked by the Alaska Peninsula. A
couple shortwaves will bring mixed precipitation toward the
western capes of the west coast this weekend. Otherwise, high
pressure will remain in place through early next week.

For the forecast today, we focused on refining the precipitation
type and timing along the West Coast. Models are in relatively
good agreement. Issued Winter Weather Advisories for mixed
precipitation and ice accumulation for the Yukon Delta and
Southern Seward Peninsula. Cancelled Blizzard Warnings for the
eastern Arctic coast and St. Lawrence Island where conditions have
improved.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The strong ridge is likely to
persist through the middle of next week, bringing dry and clear
conditions with slightly above normal to well above normal
temperatures. The ridge will likely break down from the east late
Thursday and Friday with colder conditions setting in thereafter.
Dry conditions will likely continue though. Periods of strong east
winds with blowing snow along the North Slope, West Coast, and
over Interior Summits are likely toward the end of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-850-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804>807-852-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Chriest