463
FXAK69 PAFG 302229
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
229 PM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior through the
weekend and into early next week. Areas of dense smoke from fires
burning is reducing visibilities over the Middle Tanana Valley.
Smoke is very thick and unhealthy around the Fairbanks area today.
Dense smoke advisories expected to continue into Monday. Isolated
storms will persist into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

A strong vertically stacked low will remain in the central Bering
Sea then drift across the Aleutians on Sunday as a 540 dam Low.
Ridging will persist over the Interior this weekend. A trough will
push across the eastern North slope late Sunday into Monday. A
strong shortwave over Russia will push a front across Northwest
Alaska Tuesday into Wed bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Ridging over the Interior will slowly break down Monday and
Tuesday. Models in good agreement through the short term. The HRRR
smoke model showing smoke persisting over the Interior through
Monday.

Interior...Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior
through the weekend. Highs in the mid 80s and a few upper 80s over
the Yukon Flats. Air across Fairbanks and North Pole is very
unhealthy today. Dense smoke advisories have been extended into
Monday. Smoke may thin and visibility may improve late Monday
and Tuesday as winds become westerly and disperse some of the
stagnant smoke. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms return
over the southern Interior on Sunday. A cooler and wetter pattern
expected by late Wed into Thursday as a front will bring much
needed wetting rains to the Interior. Southwest flow will continue
into late next week with more chances for rain.

West Coast and Western Interior... Western Interior will remain
warm over the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Showers continue to rotate around the Yukon Delta from the low in
the southern Bering through the weekend. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are possible from Grayling to Mcgrath on Sunday.
Some of these storms will be fairly strong and may produce small
hail and gusty winds with copious lightning. Monday is another
warm day, with increasing southwesterly winds as a low approaches
the NW Arctic. Change in the pattern by Tuesday with temps
cooling and a front bringing rain showers to the west coast. Temps
could drop to the 60s Tuesday into Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Isolated thunderstorms are again
possible Sunday mainly over the E Brooks Range, with some showers
on Monday over the crest of the range. Otherwise, weak high
pressure along the coast will promote periods of sun and
stratus/fog at times, although it will not be extremely
widespread. Tuesday into Wednesday, a strong front originating
from E Siberia will push across the entire region bringing heavy
rainfall and strong southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with higher
mountain gap winds.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Long range models are coming more
inline with a fairly large pattern shift beginning Tuesday, as a
front from E Siberia moves inland across the NW Arctic and shifts
east along the Brooks Range and eventually into the Interior on
Thursday. This will bring increasing west-southwest winds across
the Mainland with increasing chances for rainfall and cooler
temps.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southwest winds to
gale force will bring elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet above
the normal high tideline from Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast
beginning Tue and lasting into late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and relatively dry over the Interior through the weekend and
into early Next week. Smoke and unhealthy air continues over the
Middle Tanana Valley down to Delta Junction. Dense Smoke Advisories
still in effect through Monday. On Sunday, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms return over the southern Interior and
western Interior from Grayling to McGrath.

Major pattern shift begins Tue and Wed as the upper ridge breaks
down and a strong front moves into the NW Arctic and shifts east
through the week, bringing potential wetting rains and much cooler
temps, although strong southwest winds may create some critical fire
weather conditions prior to that. Near red flag conditions
possible on Tuesday over the northern Interior and possibly
continuing into Wednesday for the Yukon Flats. The Red flag
conditions will be short lived with wetting rains moving across
the Interior on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Glacial fed rivers including the Tanana are slowly rising as
warming temperatures lead to increased high elevation snowmelt and
glacial melt.

Beginning next week around Wednesday, heavy rainfall will move
across the W Brooks Range with 1-3 inches of rainfall through next
weekend, with 0.75 to 1.5 inches over parts of the Interior.
Expect river rises with this amount of water across the Mainland.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ834-837-839>844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$