536
FXAK69 PAFG 050018
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer conditions are expected for the Interior
through the work week and into the weekend. A warm front will
push northward across the west coast through Thursday bringing
snow showers, and low visibilities along the Bering Strait.
Another shortwave will move north of the Alaska Range on Thursday,
bringing a brief round of snow or snow showers to most of the
Interior through Friday. Most locations will see less than 1 inch,
but isolated pockets could see up to 2 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Impacts by Region:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A strong boundary that formed west of Fairbanks, resulting in
  snow showers over the Minto Flats and dramatic clouds in the
  Fairbanks area is dissipating this evening and expected to
  continue to dissipate.

- A shortwave will lift north over the Alaska Range on Thursday,
  bringing another brief round of snow and snow showers to the
  area. This will move into the northern Interior on Friday.
  Accumulations will generally be 1 inch or less, but isolated
  pockets that see heavy snow showers may receive a quick 2
  inches.

- Wind Advisories are in effect for north of Trims Camp along the
  Richardson Highway and near Antler Creek along the Parks Highway through
  6 PM.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A frontal boundary will bring light snow to the West Coast
  through Friday and bring a potential for mixed precipitation
  from the Lower Yukon Valley to McGrath late Wednesday into
  Thursday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the McGrath
  area for possible ice accumulation of a light glaze. Elsewhere,
  ice accumulation is not expected. For areas that see
  precipitation other than snow, ice pellets or sleet is the most
  likely precipitation type.

- Northerly winds 25 to 35 mph will continue through the Bering
  Strait and at St. Lawrence Island through Thursday. Reduced
  visibility as low as 1 mile is expected in snow showers at St.
  Lawrence Island and through the Bering Strait on Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Windy conditions near Barter Island continue through this
  evening. Conditions have improved to the west of Barter Island
  and the Winter Weather Advisory for Deadhorse has been
  cancelled. The Blizzard Warning for Barter Island has also been
  cancelled as visibility has improved.

- Winds are also gusty near Point Hope with low visibilities
  around 1 mile. Expect these conditions to continue through at
  least Friday night.

- Quieter and warmer conditions prevail for the rest of the week
  as the warm front moves north over the area. Light snow
  accumulations in the Brooks Range.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence Discussion...High pressure
persists in the Arctic, centered over Banks Island, while low
pressure persists over the Aleutian Islands. A warm front that
moved over the central interior yesterday now lies over the
western interior. This front will slowly weaken over the west
coast through Friday. A strong shortwave will move north over the
Alaska Range on Thursday and into the interior. A 975 mb low will
move to near Kodiak Friday morning.

We opted to make significant changes to the forecast today to
increase PoPs in the interior with the Thursday shortwave. Models
have not been consistent with this feature, but trends have moved
toward widespread snow showers. Used mainly the ECMWF to increase
these PoPs. Also added some southerly gap winds through Alaska
Range passes. No new watches, warnings, or advisories, and
cancelled the Blizzard Warning for the Arctic Coast, the Wind
Advisory for Delta Junction, and the Winter Weather Advisory for
Deadhorse.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...A strong low pressure
system will move to the eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and
Bristol Bay on Sunday and Monday. This will likely spread a mix of
precipitation to the West Coast and Western Interior.
Precipitation may be heavy at times. Details from this system will
be ironed out as it gets closer. Very warm temperatures as high
as the low 40s are also possible Sunday-Tuesday from Fairbanks
south to the Alaska Range. Otherwise, temperatures in the extended
period look to be near normal or slightly above normal with above
normal precipitation likely.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ847-849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ852.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-850-851-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

CHRIEST