552
FZAK80 PAFC 082350
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
250 PM AKST Friday 8 November 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 13 November 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to low

SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the Chukchi and Beaufort
Seas through Wednesday. The main storm track looks to shift into the
Bering Sea by the middle of next week. This will leave the Chukchi
and Beaufort Seas in a growth pattern and the Bering Sea in a melt
pattern.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-

In the Beaufort Sea, the main ice edge extends from 71 29N 156 19W
to 70 40N 146 5W to 72 8N 156 23W and continues west in the
Chukchi Sea. The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 5
nm north of Point Barrow 50 nm northeast of Prudhoe Bay to 45 nm
north of Point Barrow and continues west in the Chukchi Sea. The ice
edge is open water.


FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northeasterly winds to easterly winds will
persist across the Beaufort Sea through Wednesday. Winds will be
light enough to allow for ice to grow away from the coast and for
new ice to form along the ice edge as it advects southward. It is
possible that much of the Beaufort Sea freezes over the next 5 days,
though there could be a small strip of ice free waters between the
pack ice and the ice growing out from the coast.


-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

In the Chukchi Sea, the main ice edge extends from 72 8N 156 26W
to 70 47N 166 14W  to 70 41N 176 14W and continues in Russian
waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice along
portions of the coast from Wales to Point Barrow.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 45
nm north of Point Barrow to 60 nm west of Wainwright to 310 nm west
of Wainwright and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open
water. There is also sea ice along portions of the coast from Wales
to Point Barrow.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northeasterly to easterly winds will persist
across the Chukchi Sea through Wednesday. Lighter winds and a colder
air mass will allow for ice growth to resume after a pause for the
last week. It is possible that new ice forms all along the coast
from Utqiagvik through Cape Lisburne. Ice will continue to expand
from Kotzebue Sound, and new ice should form along the coast from
Wales to Espenberg. Areas of new ice have continued to form in open
water north of the Bering Strait; this ice will likely stick around
in some fashion despite sea surface temperature overall not being
favorable. By the middle of next week, this area may divide ice free
areas to the north in the Chukchi Sea and the Bering Strait.



-BERING SEA-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

In the Bering Sea, the ice edge extends along the coast from near
Quinhagak to Golovin Bay, as well as near Port Safety and Port
Clarence.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is low. Today`s forecast revolves around a storm progged to enter
the Bering Sea during the middle of next week. Uncertainty is higher
than normal with the storm track. At this point, guidance is
signaling onshore winds from the Kuskokwim Delta through the Yukon
Delta which would melt existing ice. Norton Bay and the northern
coastline of Norton Sound is where the best chance for ice to grow
lies.


&&
Lawson