923
FZAK80 PAFC 082301
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
201 PM AKST Wednesday 8 January 2025

FORECAST VALID...Monday 13 January 2025

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate.

SYNOPSIS...A series of lows traverse the Bering Sea and portions of
the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas through Monday. Thus, high pressure
currently over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas are gradually replaced
with low pressure over the next few days, with the low pressure
generally persisting across all regions throughout the remainder of
the forecast period.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Light and variable winds become stronger
northeasterly to easterly winds through Monday. The ice pack will
continue to compact and movement overall should be minimal, however
any ice movement should be to the west and/or to the southwest. Overall,
thickening ice conditions are expected through Monday.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northerly to northeasterly winds will persist
through Saturday. Later Saturday into Sunday, a weak low is expected
to travel north through the Bering Strait, briefly causing winds to
become variable in speed and direction. By Sunday afternoon through
Monday, winds shift northerly again. Overall through Monday,
thickening ice conditions are expected and sea ice will generally
continue to drift south, except during periods of variable winds.
For the Kotzebue sound, winds will likely become easterly from
Saturday through Monday.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters-

In the Bering Sea, the ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to
59 11N 167 46W to 61 14N 172 21W to 62 53N 177 52W and
continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is
also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Osviak and Egegik.

From land-based points in Alaska, the ice edge extends from near
Cape Newenham to 65 nm south of Cape Mohican to 150 nm south of
Gambell to 175 nm southwest of Gambell and continues into Russian
waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also some new sea ice
in Bristol Bay between Osviak and Egegik.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is moderate. Northerly to northeasterly winds will persist across
the existing ice pack through Friday. Late Friday through early
Saturday, a weakening North Pacific low tracks north across the
central Bering Sea, causing winds to become variable in speed and
direction. Then, another stronger North Pacific low tracks north
across the eastern Bering Sea to the northern Bering Sea from later
Saturday through Monday. Thus, expect generally northerly winds
(enhanced sea ice growth) across the western Bering and southerly
winds (limited sea ice growth) across the eastern Bering for the
latter part of the forecast period.

-COOK INLET-

PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-

SYNOPSIS...A series of lows transit the Gulf of Alaska and the Cook
Inlet region throughout the forecast period.

The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to near the
East Foreland. The ice edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is
moderate. Wind direction will be highly variable across the Cook
Inlet region throughout the forecast period. In general, northerly
to northeasterly winds become light and variable on Friday,
then northerly to northeasterly on Saturday, and then primarily easterly
on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will more or less remain near or
above freezing through Monday and, thus, will limit sea ice growth.
Temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 30s by Sunday and
Monday.

&&
Fenrich