043
FZAK80 PAFC 302208
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
208 PM AKDT Monday 30 September 2024

FORECAST VALID...Saturday 5 October 2024.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High.

SYNOPSIS...High pressure builds over the Chukchi Sea and Beaufort
Sea through mid week. From Thursday through Saturday, low pressure
over eastern Russia tracks east across the Bering Sea, spreading
lower pressure northward as well into the Chukchi Sea and Beaufort
Sea.

The main ice edge extends from Russian waters to 72 40N 166 53W to
75 27N 164 58W to 76 22N 157 7W to 76 21N 145 22W to 75 24N
138 26W and continues east into Canadian waters. The ice edge is
open water. Sea ice also lingers off the northern coast of the
Chukchi Peninsula and at times moves into Alaska waters between the
Bering Strait and Point Hope.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 200
nm west-northwest of Point Barrow to 270 nm northwest of Point
Barrow to 290 nm north of Point Barrow to 350 nm north of Flaxman
Island to 335 nm north of Demarcation Point and continues east into
Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. Sea ice also lingers
off the northern coast of the Chukchi Peninsula and at times moves
into Alaska waters between the Bering Strait and Point Hope.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Easterly winds across the southern Beaufort Sea
and southerly winds across the remainder of the Beaufort Sea will
continue through Tuesday. Winds become lighter and more variable in
direction for Wednesday and Thursday before shifting mostly easterly
on Friday and Saturday. Overall, expect the ice pack to move in the
direction of the winds up to approximately 10 nm per day. During
periods of lighter winds, sea ice will drift more with the local
currents. New ice will continue to form along the edge of the main
ice pack.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue
through Wednesday, then shift easterly on Thursday, and then
northeasterly to northerly for Friday and Saturday. Expect the ice
pack to move in the direction of the winds up to approximately 10 nm
per day through Saturday.

&&
Fenrich