430
FZAK80 PAFC 122259
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
300 PM AKDT Friday 12 September 2025

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 17 September 2025

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High

SYNOPSIS...High pressure remains over the high Arctic. A weak low
will move near the northwest Alaska coastline into the Chukchi Sea
where it will weaken through Monday.


-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-

The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 72 10N 154 54W
to 71 20N 146 51W to 70 33N 145 28W to 70 11N 140 18W and
continues east into Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort
Sea extends from 54 nm north-northeast of Pt. Barrow to 64 nm north
of Flaxman Island to 25 nm west northwest of Kaktovik to 35 nm north
of Demarcation Point and continues east into Canadian waters. The
ice edge is open water.


FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is moderate. Light southerly to easterly winds will
persist through the period. Ice will continue to melt and thin
throughout the forecast period. Sea ice will move northward about 5
to 10 nm/day. New ice has grown away from the pack around 78N, this
ice will likely melt with the upcoming southerly winds but is a sign
that the waters in the area are primed to freeze once temperatures
seasonally get colder over the next few weeks. Sea ice minimum is
likely within the next 7 to 10 days.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 72 10N 154 54W
to 71 16N 161 32W to 71 57N 163 40W to 73 50N 165 10W and
continues southwest in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi
Sea extends from 54 nm north-northeast of Pt. Barrow to 55 nm west
of Pt. Franklin to 105 nm west-northwest of Pt. Franklin to 200 nm
northwest of Point Franklin and continues southwest in Russian
waters. The ice edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is moderate. Light and variable winds around the weak
surface low pressure will turn light southerly through the weekend.
The old brash ice hanging around Hanna Shoal will may not survive
the southerly winds and advection of warmer water into the area.
Overall expect the ice edge to retreat northward 5-10 nm/day through
Monday then moving with tides and currents thereafter.


&&
Lawson