345
FZAK80 PAFC 272302
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
300 PM AKDT Friday 27 September 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 2 October 2024.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.

SYNOPSISLow pressure over the Beaufort Sea slowly weakens through
this weekend as high pressure builds over the Chukchi Sea and
Beaufort Sea. The high pressure gradually shifts to the east through
mid week as low pressure over eastern Russia begins pushing
northeast.

The main ice edge extends from Russian waters to 72 30N 167 40W to
75 26N 166 11W to 76 9N 152 25W to 77 8N 142 31W to 74 58N
138 33W and continues into Canadian waters. The ice edge is open
water. Sea ice also lingers off the northern coast of the Chukchi
Peninsula and at times moves into Alaska waters between the Bering
Strait and Point Hope.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 210
nm west-northwest of Point Barrow to 280 nm northwest of Point
Barrow to 305 nm north of Cape Halkett to 400 nm north of Kaktovik
to 310 nm north of Demarcation Point and continues into Canadian
waters. The ice edge is open water. Sea ice also lingers off the
northern coast of the Chukchi Peninsula and at times moves into
Alaska waters between the Bering Strait and Point Hope.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Easterly to northeasterly winds continue through
Saturday, moving sea ice to the west up to 10 nm while new ice grows
within the pack. Northerly to northwesterly winds develop over the
northern Beaufort on Sunday and then become westerly on Monday.
Winds shift southerly for Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall, expect the
ice pack to move in the direction of the winds up to approximately
10 nm per day. Sea ice will drift with the local currents during
periods of light winds. New ice will continue to form along the edge
of the main ice pack.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northerly to northwesterly winds will persist
through Saturday, generally moving the sea ice southeast up to 10
nm. Winds shift southerly to southeasterly from Sunday through
Wednesday. Expect the ice pack to move northward 30 to 40 nm in that
time frame, potentially returning some ice to Alaska waters. New ice
has been observed near Kotzebue, which likely formed in the shallows
or mudflats and moved off with high tide. Expect this ice to melt
fast in warmer waters.

&&
Fenrich