655
FZAK80 PAFC 062203
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
103 PM AKST Wednesday 6 November 2024

FORECAST VALID...Monday 11 November 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate

SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the Chukchi and Beaufort
Seas through Monday as the main storm track remains south of the
Aleutian Islands.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-

In the Beaufort Sea, the main ice edge extends from 71 29N 156 19W
to 70 40N 146 5W to 72 8N 156 23W and continues west in the
Chukchi Sea. The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 5
nm north of Point Barrow 50 nm northeast of Prudhoe Bay to 45 nm
north of Point Barrow and continues west in the Chukchi Sea. The ice
edge is open water.


FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northerly to northeasterly winds will persist
across the Beaufort Sea through Monday, slowly decreasing through
the weekend. Winds will be strong enough to continue to erode ice
along the coast, though toward the weekend and Monday they may be
calm enough to resume some growth. Expect the ice edge to advance
southeastward 5-10 nm/day


-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

In the Chukchi Sea, the main ice edge extends from 72 8N 156 26W
to 70 47N 166 14W  to 70 41N 176 14W and continues in Russian
waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice along
portions of the coast from Wales to Point Barrow.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 45
nm north of Point Barrow to 60 nm west of Wainwright to 310 nm west
of Wainwright and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open
water. There is also sea ice along portions of the coast from Wales
to Point Barrow.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northeasterly to easterly winds will persist
across the Chukchi Sea through Monday. Sea ice will continue to fill
in north of 72N. Winds will remain strong enough between Point Hope
and Utqiagvik that new ice shouldn`t form and existing ice will not
grow. Kotzebue Sound winds may stay light enough to continue ice
growth.



-BERING SEA-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

In the Bering Sea, the ice edge extends along the coast from near
Quinhagak to Golovin Bay, as well as near Port Safety and Port
Clarence.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is high. A warmer air mass associated with the filling low pressure
system will remain over the west coast through Friday. Over the
weekend, new ice will continue to grow out away from coastal areas
and within protected waters. A small, compact system moves into the
Bering Strait region early next week which will again stall ice
growth.

&&
Lawson