019
FZAK80 PAFC 132356
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
256 PM AKST Wednesday 13 November 2024

FORECAST VALID...Monday 18 November 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate

SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the Chukchi Sea and
gradually move northwest through Monday as a series of lows move
east across the southern Bering Sea.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northeasterly winds to easterly winds will
persist across the Beaufort Sea through Saturday, then shift to
northerly then westerly Sunday and Monday. The ice pack will
generally drift southwest through Saturday, then begin to drift
southeast to east Sunday and Monday.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-

In the Chukchi Sea, the main ice edge is outside of a line from 70
40N 166 50W to 70N 169 53W to 69 22N 167 13W to 68 14N 173
23W to 69 54N 178 28W to 71 17N 174 28W to 70 40N 166 50W.
Near the Bering Strait, the ice edge extends from 65 38N 168 7W to
67 26N 165 19W to 66 40N 167 7W to 67 2N 168 40W and continues
into Russian waters. The ice edges are open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge is outside of a
line from 95 nm west of Icy Cape to 160 nm west-southwest of Icy
Cape to 115 nm southwest of Icy Cape to 135 nm west of Point Hope to
255 nm northwest of Point Hope to 230 nm north-northwest of Point
Hope to 95 nm west of Icy Cape. Near the Bering Strait, the ice edge
extends from near Wales to 40 nm northwest of Cape Krusenstern to 80
nm west of Cape Krusenstern to 105 nm west of Cape Krusenstern and
continues into Russian waters. The ice edges are open water.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northeasterly to easterly winds will persist
across the Chukchi Sea through Sunday and then gradually shift more
northerly on Monday. Lighter winds and a colder air mass will
promote continued growth of sea ice in open water north of the
Bering Strait especially east of 165W through the forecast period.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

In the Bering Sea, the ice edge extends up to 18nm offshore along
the coast from near Cape Newenham to Stebbins, then to near Solomon.
There is also sea ice within Port Safety and Port Clarence.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is moderate. Northerly to northwesterly winds will persist through
Monday. The greatest sea ice growth during the forecast period is
expected to be within eastern Norton Sound.

&&
Schreck