064
FZAK80 PAFC 080133
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
433 PM AKST Friday 7 February 2025


FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 12 February 2025


ANALYSIS CONFIDENCEModerate to high.


SYNOPSISHigh pressure will persist across the Beaufort Sea, most of
the Chukchi Sea, and Cook Inlet through Wednesday. A low from the
North Pacific will continue tracking north, spreading low pressure
from the southern Bering Sea to the northern Bering Sea by Saturday.
Low pressure will extend into the southern Chukchi Sea on Monday.


-BEAUFORT SEA-


PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-PKZ814-Cape
Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-PKZ815-Flaxman Island to
Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett
from 15 to 75 nm-PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80
nm-PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-


Ice covered.


FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Westerly winds will persist through Saturday and
then shift easterly from Sunday through Wednesday. The ice pack will
continue to thicken and generally move to the east through Saturday
and then back to the west Sunday through Wednesday. A warm airmass
will briefly move overhead on Monday.


-CHUKCHI SEA-


PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-


Ice covered.


FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Current northwesterly/northerly winds become
northeasterly on Saturday and then shift generally easterly from
Sunday through Wednesday. Thus, expect sea ice to drift to the west
around 10-15 nm/day through the forecast period. There will be a
brief period of southerly winds over the southern Chukchi Sea on
Monday. Expect polynyas to form along west-facing coastlines as a
result of the easterly winds.  Stronger southeasterly winds along
the Wales to Shishmaref coastline will make shorefast ice vulnerable
to break-off.


-BERING SEA-


PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-


Ice covered.


PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
KZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters-


In the Bering Sea, the main ice edge extends from near Egegik to
Cape Newenham to Cape Mohican to 62N 177 10W and continues into
Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Egegik to Cape Newenham to Cape Mohican to 170 nm southwest of
Gambell. The ice edge is open water.


FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is high. Easterly to southeasterly winds will persist through the
forecast period. Expect retreat of the main ice edge about 10 nm/day
through Wednesday. Polynyas will continue to open off of west-facing
coastlines and off of the shorefast ice of the Yukon Delta and
southern/eastern Norton Sound. Ice within Bristol Bay will melt
while compacting against the northern coastline.


-COOK INLET-


PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-


SYNOPSISHigh pressure will persist across the Cook Inlet region
through Wednesday while low pressure lingers to the southwest across
the southern Gulf of Alaska, Aleutian Chain, and Bering Sea.


In Cook Inlet, the main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to
near Clam Gulch. The ice edge is open water.


FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is
high. Northeasterly winds will persist across the Cook Inlet region
throughout the forecast period. Air temperatures will remain colder,
with highs in the low to mid 20s and lows in the teens. Thus, expect
sea ice to continue growing through Wednesday. Overall, the ice edge
is expected to advance 10-15 nm south through the forecast period.


&&
Fenrich/Lawson