197
FZAK80 PAFC 172349
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
250 PM AKST Friday 17 January 2025

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 22 January 2025

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate.

SYNOPSIS...Low pressure over the Bering Sea spreads north across the
Chukchi Sea through today and then the Beaufort Sea on Saturday. Low
pressure will generally persist through Monday, after which time
high pressure starts to build over the Beaufort Sea.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Easterly winds will continue through tonight
before becoming southeasterly on Saturday and then southerly on
Sunday. From Monday through Wednesday, southwesterly winds will
develop. Ice pack movement should be minimal overall, but parts of
shorefast ice have been breaking off (forming polynyas) and will
continue to do so as a result of offshore winds throughout the
forecast period.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is moderate. Winds will be very variable in speed and
direction throughout Wednesday as multiple weak low features track
across/near the Chukchi Sea. In general, easterly to southeasterly
winds are expected to become westerly on Monday, southerly to
southwesterly on Tuesday, and then westerly to northwesterly on
Wednesday. Thus, expect sea ice to drift in the direction of the
winds on each given day. Polynyas (along western-facing coastlines)
from the current easterly winds will retreat and fill in as winds
shift throughout the forecast period.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters-

In the Bering Sea, the main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham
to 59 24N 167 37W to 61 2N 172 16W to 61 45N 175 21W and
continues into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is
also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape Constantine and
Egegik.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Cape Newenham to 50 nm south of Cape Mohican to 145 nm south of
Gambell to 155 nm southwest of Gambell and continues into Russian
waters. There is also some new sea ice in Bristol Bay between Cape
Constantine and Egegik.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is moderate. Across the existing ice pack, southeasterly winds will
persist through part of Sunday before shifting westerly later on
Sunday. From Monday through Wednesday, winds will be more variable
in speed and direction as multiple weak low features traverse the
Bering Sea. North of the Kuskokwim Delta, winds will generally be
westerly on Monday and then northerly on Tuesday and Wednesday. For
Bristol Bay, southerly winds shift southeasterly on Monday and then
westerly to southwesterly by Wednesday. Overall, expect sea ice to
drift in the direction of the winds on each given day. With the
variable winds throughout the period, the main ice edge should more
or less remain close to where it currently is. Expect sea ice in
Bristol Bay to continue melting.

-COOK INLET-

PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-

SYNOPSIS...A series of fronts will transit the Gulf of Alaska and
the Cook Inlet region throughout the forecast period.

In Cook Inlet, the main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland
to near the East Foreland. The ice edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is
high. Northeasterly winds will persist through Sunday, become light
and variable briefly on Monday, and then shift northeasterly again
on Wednesday. Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are expected
throughout the forecast period and, thus, sea ice growth will be
minimal, if any.

&&
Fenrich