156
FXAK68 PAFC 081331
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The low in the Gulf of Alaska shifts onshore over Southeast Alaska
today and transient high pressure ridging moves in. Drier
conditions are expected for most areas today. Rain showers are
likely along northern portions of the Susitna Valley and Copper
River Basin, and isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon along the western Alaska Range, Talkeetna Mountains, and
eastern portions of the Wrangell Mountains. Expect showers to
persist for the aforementioned inland areas through Wednesday,
though thunderstorm chances will diminish for most areas, with
some isolated potential over the Talkeetna Mountains Wednesday
afternoon. Stratiform rain will move back in along the coast
late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning ahead of a front set to
move into the southwestern Gulf on Wednesday. Additionally,
southeasterly gap winds will increase Wednesday through Turnagain,
the Knik River, and the Copper River Valley. Expect mostly dry
conditions through Anchorage, Palmer, and the southern Copper
River Basin with the southeast surface flow. Southeast winds peak
Wednesday evening before slowly diminishing overnight Wednesday
into Thursday morning.

The next front moving in on Wednesday will impact Kodiak Island
first, bringing rounds of rain and gusty easterly winds Wednesday
into Thursday before pushing northwards towards the north Gulf
coast. Gale force winds are expected to move north with the front,
pushing gusts to storm force through the Barren Islands and the
setting up a barrier jet along the north Gulf coast Thursday
afternoon. The barrier jet is expected to be high end gale force
winds with a corridor of storm force gusts. The wettest locations associated
with this storm will undoubtedly be along the Southcentral Coast
and Kodiak Island, with inland locations seeing periods of lighter
rain showers.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

A low pressure system over the southern Bering Sea continues to be
the active weather agent across the region, with weak ridging
built over the Southwestern mainland. Southwest coastline
continues to expect periods of fog and stratus overcast. Relatively
clearer skies over the interior Southwest is allowing for
increased convective activity in the afternoons with isolated
thunderstorms expected in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley near the
western Alaska Range, stretching to the eastern extent of the
Kuskokwim Delta. Thunderstorms in the Kuskokwim Delta will be
mainly in the Aniak region, but may briefly stretch towards Bethel
Wednesday afternoon.

In the Bering, the aforementioned low pressure system in the
southern Bering will advance steadily eastward, reaching the
Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, and southern Bristol Bay by
Wednesday afternoon. The low brings with it a swath of light
rainfall, spreading across the Eastern Aleutians into the Alaska
Peninsula today. Behind the low is a weak ridge, which will
decrease wind speeds and precipitation chances in the Bering
through Thursday. Fronts from the low, which moves into the North
Pacific west of Kodiak, will push into Bristol Bay on Thursday,
allowing for higher rain chances. Gusty winds are expected out of
the Kamishak Gap through New Stuyahok by Thursday. As the low
passes into the Gulf of Alaska, precipitation chances and wind
speeds will dwindle through Thursday night. Due to increased cloud
cover, temperatures will cool into the upper 50s and lower 60s
across the inland on Thursday.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term begins with a broad trough extending from the
Kamchatka Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska with many transient
shortwaves/storms. Meanwhile, a strong ridge will build over the
Chukchi Sea and northwest Alaska. This pattern will keep weather
unsettled throughout our AOR as multiple systems move through the
trough and into the southern Mainland. Rain may be moderate at
times along the coast but it appears for now that the bulk of the
heavier precipitation will be over towards the panhandle. Due to
the many features tracking through the area out of the north
Pacific, an area that models tend to struggle with, overall
forecast confidence for the timing and placement of each feature
is low. Generally speaking, temperatures are expected to be at to
slightly below normal due to the maritime influence on the region.

-CJ

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected. Though the terminal should
stay dry, there is a slight chance for isolated, hit-or-miss
showers to bring brief periods of rain to the terminal through
today. Gusty, southeasterly winds increase this afternoon and will
likely persist through Wednesday evening.

&&


$$