120
FXAK68 PAFC 090102
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKDT Thu May 8 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Decaying low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and the exiting of an
interior shortwave are allowing for decreased shower activity
this afternoon across Southcentral AK. The upper Susitna Valley is
expected to hold on to precipitation and low clouds the longest,
but it too should see a clearing trend as flow shifts northerly
tonight. A shortwave trough looks to swing up the Panhandle into
the northeastern Gulf by Saturday morning, increasing wind speeds
and precipitation chances for the coast, primarily around the
Copper River Delta and eastern Prince William Sound. Later
Saturday into Sunday could bring a chance for precipitation
farther inland along the Richardson Highway and east for the
eastern Copper River Basin as a weak shortwave trough concurrently
dips across the eastern Alaska Range toward the Al-Can border.

High pressure building in from the west will produce overall
pleasant conditions for most of the region through the weekend,
where light winds, partly sunny skies, and high temperatures in
the low 60`s are forecast.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

The main short-term items to keep an eye on will be the potential
for afternoon showers near the Aleutian Range and Alaska Range.
This includes a slight chance for a thunderstorm north of Iliamna
and toward the middle-to-upper Kuskokwim Valley. The next
questions will be whether the Bristol Bay region goes down in fog
late tonight/early Friday morning with the clearing skies after
the afternoon/evening showers subside. At this time, it looks less
likely for the widespread fog from this morning to re-develop as
the flow will be more easterly and less southerly which should
help limit the overall low-level moisture.

In general, mainland Southwest Alaska will remain mostly quiet over
the next couple of days with the exception of some diurnally
driven showers in the areas mentioned earlier. The driest day
across the southwestern mainland looks to be Saturday as a drier
airmass moves overhead.

Models are coming into better agreement with the track of the
storm moving into the Bering Sea Sunday into Monday. The most
likely track looks to take this low over Atka and then west of the
Pribilofs. This will likely put Unalaska to Sand Point into some
strong southeasterly winds in advance of the low on Sunday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through
Thursday)...

An amplified upper-level low spans from the Bering Sea to
Southeast Alaska. Strong southerly flow and ample moisture will
bring steady precipitation across the Alaska Peninsula on Monday
morning and the Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Unsettled weather
will continue across Southwest on Tuesday as a second system
crosses the central Aleutians and lingers in the Bering Sea, and
again on Wednesday for Southcentral when a triple point along its
front sweeps across the Gulf on Wednesday to reach the Southeast
part of the state by Thursday morning.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... Westerly to southwesterly winds will become more northerly
and decrease with loss of diurnal heating and sea-breeze effects.
Scattered showers will also dissipate with loss of heating. High
pressure over much of Southcentral will help to limit showers on
Friday, but may increase chances for areas of fog after 12Z
Friday. Models are also hinting at fog developing along the Knik
Arm and working southwards towards the terminal. However, given
the uncertainty, have left mention of fog out of the 00Z TAF.


&&


$$