


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
156 FXAK68 PAFC 081331 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 531 AM AKDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... The low in the Gulf of Alaska shifts onshore over Southeast Alaska today and transient high pressure ridging moves in. Drier conditions are expected for most areas today. Rain showers are likely along northern portions of the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin, and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the western Alaska Range, Talkeetna Mountains, and eastern portions of the Wrangell Mountains. Expect showers to persist for the aforementioned inland areas through Wednesday, though thunderstorm chances will diminish for most areas, with some isolated potential over the Talkeetna Mountains Wednesday afternoon. Stratiform rain will move back in along the coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning ahead of a front set to move into the southwestern Gulf on Wednesday. Additionally, southeasterly gap winds will increase Wednesday through Turnagain, the Knik River, and the Copper River Valley. Expect mostly dry conditions through Anchorage, Palmer, and the southern Copper River Basin with the southeast surface flow. Southeast winds peak Wednesday evening before slowly diminishing overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. The next front moving in on Wednesday will impact Kodiak Island first, bringing rounds of rain and gusty easterly winds Wednesday into Thursday before pushing northwards towards the north Gulf coast. Gale force winds are expected to move north with the front, pushing gusts to storm force through the Barren Islands and the setting up a barrier jet along the north Gulf coast Thursday afternoon. The barrier jet is expected to be high end gale force winds with a corridor of storm force gusts. The wettest locations associated with this storm will undoubtedly be along the Southcentral Coast and Kodiak Island, with inland locations seeing periods of lighter rain showers. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... A low pressure system over the southern Bering Sea continues to be the active weather agent across the region, with weak ridging built over the Southwestern mainland. Southwest coastline continues to expect periods of fog and stratus overcast. Relatively clearer skies over the interior Southwest is allowing for increased convective activity in the afternoons with isolated thunderstorms expected in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley near the western Alaska Range, stretching to the eastern extent of the Kuskokwim Delta. Thunderstorms in the Kuskokwim Delta will be mainly in the Aniak region, but may briefly stretch towards Bethel Wednesday afternoon. In the Bering, the aforementioned low pressure system in the southern Bering will advance steadily eastward, reaching the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, and southern Bristol Bay by Wednesday afternoon. The low brings with it a swath of light rainfall, spreading across the Eastern Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula today. Behind the low is a weak ridge, which will decrease wind speeds and precipitation chances in the Bering through Thursday. Fronts from the low, which moves into the North Pacific west of Kodiak, will push into Bristol Bay on Thursday, allowing for higher rain chances. Gusty winds are expected out of the Kamishak Gap through New Stuyahok by Thursday. As the low passes into the Gulf of Alaska, precipitation chances and wind speeds will dwindle through Thursday night. Due to increased cloud cover, temperatures will cool into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the inland on Thursday. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... The long term begins with a broad trough extending from the Kamchatka Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska with many transient shortwaves/storms. Meanwhile, a strong ridge will build over the Chukchi Sea and northwest Alaska. This pattern will keep weather unsettled throughout our AOR as multiple systems move through the trough and into the southern Mainland. Rain may be moderate at times along the coast but it appears for now that the bulk of the heavier precipitation will be over towards the panhandle. Due to the many features tracking through the area out of the north Pacific, an area that models tend to struggle with, overall forecast confidence for the timing and placement of each feature is low. Generally speaking, temperatures are expected to be at to slightly below normal due to the maritime influence on the region. -CJ && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected. Though the terminal should stay dry, there is a slight chance for isolated, hit-or-miss showers to bring brief periods of rain to the terminal through today. Gusty, southeasterly winds increase this afternoon and will likely persist through Wednesday evening. && $$