898
FXAK68 PAFC 170049
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 PM AKDT Fri May 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The remnants of a trough lay anchored over the Southcentral
region, promoting a weak unsettled pattern. The system is keeping
the moisture over the region with just enough lift for rain in
some locations. Showers are possible across Southcentral given the
weak forcing provided by the weak low, however widespread higher
level clouds are limiting abundant surface heating. An upper level
wave shifting from the Alaska Range into the northern Copper
River Basin this afternoon into the overnight hours may provide an
opportunity for localized light rain. This is a weak feature and
many of the models are not expecting much rain with it, however,
the setup is reasonable for some precipitation to develop along
it.

As we head into the weekend, the pattern does not change much.
Weak flow aloft and residual moisture will keep the clouds around
and whether it is some afternoon heating or an upper level wave,
there will be some showers that develop at times. The remnants of
this system are no longer organized; however, showers could be
generally expected along the coast and mountain foothills. Showers
built along foothills may move steadily into valleys or
surrounding areas given the overall weak flow. Relatively gusty
winds out of Turnagain Arm are expected to build Saturday
afternoon, potentially persisting through Sunday afternoon.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A weakening surface low off of the Kuskokwim Delta coast and its
broad trough axis extending across the southern Bering continues
to promote a widespread area of showers and low stratus across the
Bering. This system will continue to weaken and move inland as a
ridge builds in over the Bering from the west. Minimal rain
chances and a low stratus deck is expected across Southwest Alaska
through Saturday, with the greatest chance for precipitation
coming in the mountains and the Kuskokwim Valley.

Further west, a weakening low pressure system and its associated
front moves across the western Aleutians for Saturday morning into
Saturday night, giving the area a short window of rain and gusty
winds. The front is expected to fall apart by early Sunday morning
as the ridge in the Bering quickly steers the low south into the
North Pacific. Attention then shifts to the end of the short term
period where a more impressive Kamchatka low pressure system
approaches the western Bering. Heavier precipitation and the
potential for gale-force winds accompanying this low is expected
for the western Aleutians by Monday afternoon into Tuesday.


&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The broad upper level trough stretches from Siberia across the
Bering Sea and Mainland Alaska. It will be undergoing significant
changes to line up over Western Alaska through the forecast
period. In the West, a ridge builds over the Aleutians from the
North Pacific, changing the tracks of shortwaves slipping through
the pattern. A weaker ridge builds into the Eastern Interior
through the week. Model guidance with mostly ECMWF and GFS remains
in decent agreement during the changes, with a bit less
uncertainty aligned with the smaller details through Friday.

Scattered showers continue over most of the Southern Interior. A
slight chance of more convective activity is possible in the
warmest zones in Eastern Alaska. The main weather producers will
be marching over the Southern and Western portions of the state
through Friday. A well developed Central Kamchatka surface low and
front pushes across the Western Aleutians and Bering. Moderate
rain and some locally gusty offshore winds ride with the frontal
passage before diminishing across the Eastern Aleutians late
Wednesday. A second developed North Pacific low and front
approaches the Western Aleutians for Wednesday. Widespread rain
with the front sweeps across the Aleutians and Bering before the
system recurves towards the Alaska Peninsula and North Pacific for
friday. A strong third low and front awaits in the wings for the
Western parts of the state for the following weekend.

- Kutz


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF
period along with light winds. Westerly winds this afternoon and
evening will become more southerly overnight. Ceilings are also
expected to lower overnight, with MVFR ceilings possible by early
Saturday morning along with a chance for very light rain. Any
lower clouds early Saturday morning should lift by late morning.
Light winds will then increase out of the south with gusts around
20 kt possible by Saturday afternoon.

&&


$$