918
FXAK68 PAFC 130141
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 PM AKDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front moves through Southcentral bringing rain and continued
gusty winds through tomorrow afternoon. Another front, associated
with a low tracking south of the Aleutians, moves through
Southcentral midweek.

Rainfall amounts in Southcentral through 4:00pm today range from a
few tenths of an inch on the eastern side of the Kenai Peninsula
and Prince William Sound to a few hundredths of an inch on the
western side of the Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak Island and the rest
of Southcentral. Winds have been strong through the Turnagain Arm
and Prince William Sound from Cordova to Whittier. Gusts through
the Turnagain Arm, the Anchorage Hillside and the western side of
Anchorage ranged from 35 to 45 mph this afternoon after gusts in
the upper 40s this morning. Another round of precipitation moves
through Southcentral this evening through tomorrow morning. In
addition to more widespread rainfall, this second shortwave brings
small craft advisory to gale warning winds to the Gulf of Alaska
and Prince William Sound. They diminish through tomorrow
afternoon.

Tuesday, a fast-moving low moves through the Gulf of
Alaska bringing a reinforcing round of precipitation and winds to
coastal areas of the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William
Sound. Tuesday night int Wednesday evening, as a low spins in the
North Pacific/Bering Sea, its front crosses Kodiak Island causing
easterly winds gusts and steady rainfall. Through the day
Wednesday, widespread rain and pre-frontal southeasterly to
easterly winds spread over Southcentral Alaska.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Wednesday)...

Key messages:

 - The remnants of Typhoon Halong continue to move northward
   towards the Beaufort Sea. Water levels are slowly subsiding and
   winds are decreasing in strength as the system moves out of
   the region.

 - A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Kuskokwim
   Delta Coast until 10 PM tonight.

 - A Flood Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM Monday from
   Bethel to Kuskokwim bay.

 - Another powerful storm system will move out of the Pacific on
   Tuesday. The storm is expected to take a more southerly track
   across the Aleutians Islands and the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty
   Southeast winds are expected with minor coastal flooding
   possible in Kwigillingok and Kongiganak, but not for Kipnuk or
   the Kuskokwim River.

Winds continue to decrease in strength as the remnants of Typhoon
Halong moves northward toward the Beaufort Sea. Water levels
across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast similarly subside as the winds
decrease. Water levels peaked early this morning between 4AM to
7AM. Water levels will drop well below MHHW by this evening
(~ 8 PM to 11 PM), which should allow for more significant
receding of flood waters. Satellite and radar reveals lingering
showers around the Bethel region, which will dwindle into the
evening. Calm winds and clearing tonight will lead to areas of
dense fog in the Kuskokwim Delta, the Western Capes of Bristol Bay
and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. A weak disturbance due to long
wave troughing arrives late Monday morning, leading to breezy
south- southwesterly winds (10- 15 mph), and periods of light
rainfall. Continued weak troughing in the Bering will lead to
light rain and light winds for the rest of today and Monday. This
pattern will persist through the rest of Monday and into Tuesday.

By Tuesday afternoon, another low will track into the Bering,
leading to gusty gale force winds and moderate rainfall in the
Central and Eastern Aleutians. The low center will track along the
Aleutian Islands and eventually the Alaska Peninsula. A front from
the low lifts into the Southwest Mainland, bringing another round
of gusty winds and rain. The Kuskokwim Delta Coast will see gusty
southeast winds up to 45 mph. The front could bring elevated water
levels to Kwigillingok and Kongiganak, but should not impact
Kipnuk or the Kuskokwim River. Winds will decrease by Wednesday
afternoon as the center of the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska,
but areas of light to moderate rainfall will continue in the
Southwest mainland. Thursday has the back-end of the low push into
the mainland, leading to breezy northwesterly winds in the
Kuskokwim Delta. This wind direction is not favorable for coastal
flooding, so no impacts are expected. Looking ahead to Friday into
the weekend reveals higher pressure building into the mainland on
Friday, allowing for light winds and lower rain chances.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An active weather pattern will bring strong winds and heavy
precipitation across much of region. A deep cyclone is expected to
move through the Aleutians towards southwestern Alaska, with its
exact path uncertain but trending southward. This storm will
likely bring storm-force winds to the Aleutians starting Tuesday,
along with moderate amounts of rainfall. These conditions will
spread to the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday as the cyclone makes
landfall. Southern coastal areas, including Southcentral and
Prince William Sound, can expect heavy precipitation later in the
week due to a related weather system developing over the Gulf of
Alaska.

Towards the end of the week, another less intense cyclone is
forecasted to move into the Bering Sea, bringing more
precipitation to the southern coastal regions. High winds may
continue in the Aleutians, with the potential for another strong
cyclone arriving by the weekend. Temperatures across Alaska will
remain above normal due to persistent southwesterly winds. While
the exact strength and track of this storms very across the
models, the consensus suggests significant weather impacts,
particularly for western and southern Alaska.


-DD

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...The strong southeasterly winds will persist through the
afternoon then diminish by late evening. Rain is also expected to
develop overnight and bring ceilings to MVFR levels. There is a
chance for occasional visibility readings to be MVFR tomorrow, but
ceilings are more likely to be MVFR.

&&


$$