279
FXAK68 PAFC 131350
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
550 AM AKDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Rainy conditions will continue across much of Southcentral through
late this morning as a weak front passes through. Rain chances
decrease into later this afternoon, except for areas along the
north Gulf coast, primarily northern and western Prince William
Sound and from Cordova east, and higher elevations. Additionally,
small craft winds will continue across the Gulf of Alaska and
along the north Gulf coast filtering into the PWS this morning,
diminishing this afternoon.

Tuesday, a fast-moving low moves through the Gulf of
Alaska bringing a reinforcing round of precipitation and winds to
coastal areas of the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William
Sound. Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, as a low spins in
the North Pacific/Bering Sea, its front crosses Kodiak Island
causing easterly wind gusts and steady rainfall. Through the day
Wednesday, widespread rain and pre-frontal southeasterly to
easterly winds spread over Southcentral Alaska.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Wednesday)...

Key messages:

 - A Flood Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM this morning
   from Bethel to the Kuskokwim Bay.

 - Another powerful storm system will move out of the Pacific on
   Tuesday. The storm is expected to take a more southerly track
   across the Aleutians Islands and the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty
   southeast winds are expected with minor coastal flooding
   possible in Kwigillingok and Kongiganak, but not for Kipnuk or
   the Kuskokwim River.

In the wake of the departure of the remnants of former Typhoon
Halong, broad longwave troughing encompasses the Bering Sea and
Southwest Alaska. A relatively weak and quick moving system
currently situated just to the south of the Alaska Peninsula will
continue to bring periods of light to moderate rain across
Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley through this morning
into early this afternoon. Several weak features embedded within
the longwave trough will allow for breezy southerly winds (10-15
mph) and showers to linger throughout the day for the Kuskokwim
Delta. Periods of fog remain possible through this morning for the
Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes if skies are able to
sufficiently clear out as the low south of the AKPen continues to
push east and into Southcentral. Otherwise, generally showery
weather and areas of low stratus and fog over the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Chain persists into Tuesday as a broad low in the western
Bering continues to decay.

By Monday evening, a shortwave trough emerging off of Kamchatka
digs south and begins to track along the Aleutian Chain before
eventually interacting with a North Pacific low beginning Tuesday
morning. This system quickly strengthens as the two features
consolidate to the south of the Central Aleutians. As the low
tracks to the east along the Aleutian Chain, widespread rainfall
along with gale force winds with storm force gusts can be expected
for the Central Aleutians through Tuesday and for the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday before moving
into the Gulf. A front associated with the low lifts into the
Southwest mainland for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
bringing another round of gusty winds and rain through Wednesday
afternoon. The Kuskokwim Delta Coast will likely see gusty east-
southeast winds up to 40 mph. These increasing winds Wednesday
morning will coincide with the high tide cycle and could
potentially bring elevated water levels to Kwigillingok and
Kongiganak depending on the orientation of the front and southerly
component to the winds. Confidence in a more southerly track for
this storm is growing as models continue to come into better
agreement, which would work lessen the overall threat for
flooding. Winds will decrease by Wednesday afternoon as the center
of the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska, but areas of light to
moderate rainfall will continue across the Southwest mainland into
Thursday.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An active weather pattern will bring strong winds and heavy
precipitation across much of region. A deep cyclone is expected to
move through the Aleutians towards southwestern Alaska, with its
exact path uncertain but trending southward. This storm will
likely bring storm-force winds to the Aleutians starting Tuesday,
along with moderate amounts of rainfall. These conditions will
spread to the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday as the cyclone makes
landfall. Southern coastal areas, including Southcentral and
Prince William Sound, can expect heavy precipitation later in the
week due to a related weather system developing over the Gulf of
Alaska.

Towards the end of the week, another less intense cyclone is
forecasted to move into the Bering Sea, bringing more
precipitation to the southern coastal regions. High winds may
continue in the Aleutians, with the potential for another strong
cyclone arriving by the weekend. Temperatures across Alaska will
remain above normal due to persistent southwesterly winds. While
the exact strength and track of this storms very across the
models, the consensus suggests significant weather impacts,
particularly for western and southern Alaska.


-DD

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Ceilings have the potential to decrease to MVFR later this
morning as light rain continues to fall at the terminal, but will
likely be below 5000 ft even if they remain VFR. Light northerly
winds are expected to prevail, but could be somewhat variable. By
this evening, winds shift southerly as rain begins to taper off,
and there is potential for a period of lower ceilings. This is
likely to be MVFR but there is potential for as low as IFR.
Ceilings become quite uncertain tonight into Tuesday, as MVFR
ceilings (with a chance of being IFR) look to linger in the area.
At the terminal, ceilings may lift to VFR at times through Tuesday
morning.

Quesada

&&


$$