141
FXAK68 PAFC 271246
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

While the surface low that was southeast of Kodiak Island yesterday
has dissipated, there remains a 500 mb low over the western Gulf
of Alaska early this morning. This upper level low can be seen
well on satellite imagery and is pushing a few more high clouds to
the north Gulf coast and a little farther inland. This upper low
will remain nearly stationary into Friday which will keep some
moisture moving into Prince William Sound and eastward. This
moisture will not do much until it gets some lifting which will
come in the form of an upper level low from the Interior of the
state that digs southward Friday night into Saturday. This upper
low combined with the residual moisture mentioned, is increasing
the chances for precipitation for the Prince William Sound area
and for snowfall in the Copper River Basin at that time. Right
now, it looks like that upper low digging into Southcentral
Friday night and Saturday will bring in the precipitation to areas
east of Anchorage and Palmer, but we will need to watch how it
develops to make sure this will remain the case for the weekend.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Longwave troughing extends across Southwest Alaska and the eastern
Bering through the end of the week. Though there will be various
shortwaves embedded within the trough, the pattern will be mostly
clear to partly cloudy and precipitation-free as dry northerly
flow persists. Across the western Bering, an upper level ridge is
building into place, and this ridge will continue to amplify and
intensify through the end of the week. A tighter pressure
gradient build between the ridge and troughing, and when combined
with a colder airmass advecting south across the eastern Bering
Sea, gap winds are expected to increase through the day today.
Primary area of highest gusts will be through the gaps and passes
south of the Alaska Peninsula, though winds to small craft with
gale force gusts are likely across much of the eastern Bering,
southern AKPen, and Eastern Aleutians through Friday.
Additionally, periods of snow showers are possible along the
aforementioned areas.

Ridging pushes over the Southwest coast on Saturday. A shortwave
riding over the top of the ridge is expected to bring about a
pattern change, pulling moisture into the Kuskokwim Delta and some
warmer temperatures to Southwest. A second, larger trough drops
south over Southwest early next week, bringing round of unsettled
weather.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday to Wednesday)...

The main feature on the Alaska Weather map is an extensive upper
level ridge stretching across the Bering. The ridge is slowly
wedging its way over Mainland Alaska on its way to the North
Pacific for midweek. The last vestiges of an upper level trough
over the Eastern Interior continue to weaken and slip into Western
Canada for Monday. Its trough extends into the Gulf of Alaska
through Tuesday. Forecast confidence rides well with a composite
GFS / ECMWF and Canadian models, with an ensemble mix taking over
by the end of the period. Overall amplitude across the region
smooths out through Wednesday.

A well developed closed surface low in the Eastern North Pacific
sweeps a couple of troughs across Southcentral Alaska through the
weekend as far South as Kodiak Island. An area of locally moderate
precipitation and gusty winds associated with a North Pacific low
and front rides over the Western and Northern Bering through
Wednesday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds persist through
Friday morning.


&&


$$