000
FXAK68 PAFC 191251
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Fairly quiet and pleasant conditions are expected today with highs
in the 40s, maybe low 50s in some areas, and partly sunny skies.
This is due to a shortwave ridge building briefly over western
Alaska through Sunday. While most areas will likely see some sun,
the ridge is not quite stout enough to fully clear out the whole
region. The northern Susitna Valley and Copper river basin will
likely have some clouds and areas of showers. Farther to the
south, expect some isolated afternoon showers over the mountains
as the western facing slopes heat up in the afternoon.

On Sunday the interior areas will get their turn to bask in the
sunshine. Meanwhile an occluded front moves into Kodiak in the
morning, spreading rain into the Kenai Peninsula by Sunday
afternoon. Clouds will also move from southwest to northeast
through the day as the ridge gets pushed off to the east by the
approaching trough. This trough will move into Southcentral on
Sunday, bringing widespread light rain and mountain snow to just
about everywhere by Monday afternoon. Rain/snow totals will be
quite light.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Currently as of 3 AM, there is a ridge moving through Southwest
Alaska. The ridge is allowing calm winds and clearer skies to
predominate in the Southwest mainland. Southerly flow is allowing
temperatures to warm to the mid 40s during the day. Scattered fog
and low stratus is forming in the east Bering, including the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, due to the warm air
advection taking place. These conditions will linger through
Saturday morning as the ridge moves eastward.

On Saturday afternoon, a front from a weak low will move into the
eastern Aleutians, increasing precipitation chances and wind
speeds first in the Fox Islands, and soon after, the Alaska
Peninsula. This front will push into the mainland by Sunday
morning, bringing the aforementioned conditions to Bristol Bay.
Most precipitation will be in the form of rain due to the warmer
air mass in place. However, The Kuskokwim Delta coast could see
a few inches of snow Sunday morning before temperatures warm above
freezing and the snowfall transitions to rain.

On Monday, a second weak low tracks into the Bering, allowing for
some precipitation and increased wind speeds in the western
Aleutians. As the low moves into the central Bering, it absorbs
the low from before and inflates into a decently large low.
However, this larger low is still fairly weak, and brings mostly
showery precipitation and wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph across most
of the Bering and the Southwest mainland. Afterwards, on Tuesday,
an Arctic trough drops into Southwest Alaska, turning winds
northerly and driving cold air into the region, particularly at
upper levels. The region will dry out due to a drier air mass from
the Arctic low. Wind speeds will increase to just below small
craft in the central Aleutians as colder air moves in.

-JAR

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

An expansive and somewhat complex upper level low stretches
across the region through the forecast period. The main low center
over the Eastern Bering tracks across the Gulf of Alaska before
dissipating Friday. In the West, a second low center crosses the
Western Aleutians to take up station over the Central Aleutians
for Friday. A number of shortwaves rotate around both centers
during the forecast. A forecast blend with mostly ECMWF influence
combines with the GFS to carry strengths and tracks, while the
largest uncertainty remains with the minor details.

A Central Bering surface low extends a front across the Southern
Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday. Snow occurs across the NOrthern
Bering with Rain or rain and snow mixed over the AKPEN. A second
surface low picks up the main rainfall area, spreading it across
Kodiak Island into the Gulf of Alaska, diminishing Thursday. Areas
of moderate rain are expected through midweek over the Western
Gulf, and lingering near Kodiak Island through Friday. Over the
Western Aleutians and Bering, a strong North Pacific low brings
locally heavy rain, continuing over the Central Aleutians and
Bering into the AKPEN and Southwest Alaska through Friday. Most of
Interior Alaska will remain under quiet weather conditions.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. A brief period
of MVFR is possible before 18Z as westerly flow pushes remaining
cloudcover into the Chugach.

&&


$$