301
FXAK68 PAFC 010206
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
606 PM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

There is still plenty of uncertainty with regards to the near
term forecast. Timing of features has occurred a bit faster and
more moist than originally expected. Challenges over the next 24
hours include with how much rain Kodiak will receive. Latest
models have hinted at less precipitation as the bulk moves more
north into the southern Kenai Peninsula, so location of the front
is variable over the western Gulf. Winds have also been a bit
tricky with timing and variableness with cloud cover thickness is
inhibiting sea breezes near Valdez and eastern Prince William
Sound.

Farther inland, scattered thunderstorms have developed over the
eastern Alaska Range. Slightly more isolated thunderstorms are
located over the Wrangells and the Talkeetna mountains. Those
thunderstorms should diminish overnight and the chances for
lightning will be highly unlikely over the next few afternoons.
Some weak troughs could pass through Southcentral, though
instability is less favorable. There will be plenty of residual
moisture over the area through Monday though and scattered rain
showers will be likely. Chances diminish Tuesday however from
southwest to northeast as a ridge spanning from the Bering Sea,
across the mainland of the state builds in and helps to suppress
the North Pacific/Gulf low southward. Higher terrain could hold
onto some of the lingering showers, especially near the Wrangells
on Tuesday afternoon and night. Overall however, most places can
expect drier and less windy conditions. Wednesday will remain
similar to Tuesday as the ridge continues to build, but there are
are some differences with the location of the axis of the ridge.
Will it be more north over the Alaska Range or south over the Gulf
coast. The next factor to follow, that comes into play will be an
embedded arctic trough that sweeps from west to east beginning
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In particular, how
deep the trough sinks into the ridge and influencing moisture and
winds into Southern Mainland Alaska and the timing of when it
impacts Southcentral.

rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Cloud cover moving through the Kuskokwim Delta and Alaska Range
today will continue into this evening. The scattered rain showers
will taper off overnight to isolated rain showers tomorrow.

Satellite imagery and radar show a low south of the Central
Aleutians continues to cause rain showers, clouds and fog to the
Alaska Peninsula and coastal areas of the Southwest today.
Widespread rain showers will persist through tomorrow morning as
southerly to southeasterly winds ahead of the low continue.
Stronger gap winds can be expected on the northern edge of the
Aleutians and Kenai Peninsula ranging from 20 to 30 mph through
this evening.

Satellite image also shows a trough causing cloud cover and fog over
the Western Aleutians. These clouds and fog will move over the
Central Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands this evening. The
trough will move eastward overnight replaced by a ridge of high
pressure. Unfortunately, the ridge will keep fog, low clouds and
periods or rain showers through mid-week in the Aleutians,
Pribilof Islands, the Alaska Peninsula and coastal areas of the
Southwest as the ridge of high pressure builds and deepens over
the Aleutians through mid-week.


DJ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A pattern change is looking to be underway, but pinpointing what
will happen is proving to be difficult beyond day 5 (the end of
the workweek). What we do know is that by Thursday, low pressure
that has been working across the AKPEN through the week, will
continue to track deeper south into the Pacific. Strong ridging
will build in across the western Alaska, nosing in across the
Alaska Range and western Anchorage. This ridge will slowly drift
south into the weekend. What that means is that the nice weather
at the start of the week will likely shift to more of a cooler,
cloudier and potentially wetter one. Long range ensemble guidance
helps to clue us in on how things will shake out, but there are
wild differences between the ensemble and operational guidance
after day 6. What we are seeing is the first `wet` system moving
in from the Bering around the holiday timeframe. The second into
the middle of the weekend. Details should (hopefully) become
clearer as the week pushes on.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...General VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Southeast winds out of Turnagain Arm should return this evening
with southeasterly gusts up to 25 knots before gradually relaxing
in the overnight period.

&&


$$