731
FXAK68 PAFC 111350
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
550 AM AKDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front currently over Kodiak Island pushes over the southern
Kenai Peninsula this morning, bringing rain from Homer north to
Kenai and as far east to Seward before tracking eastward across
the Gulf of Alaska. Other areas along the north Gulf coast,
including Cordova, Valdez and the Prince William Sound will see
mostly cloudy skies, but are expected to remain on the drier side
through this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected along
inland regions from Anchorage north into the Mat-Su Valleys and
the Copper River Basin.

A second front pushes into the southern Gulf and over Kodiak
Island this evening, keeping Kodiak Island in continuous rain
showers through at least tonight, with a third shortwave moving
through Sunday afternoon. The second front will push northward,
spreading rain northward into Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys,
and then east to encompass the rest of Southcentral tonight
through Sunday. Though a strong surge of warm air will accompany
this precipitation, higher elevations and sheltered locations of
Copper River Basin could begin as a snow/rain mix Sunday morning
before changing to all rain in the afternoon. Overall, it is
looking like a wet end to the weekend and early next week.

Easterly winds on Sunday will be strong through the Barren
Islands and Turnagain Arm with widespread small craft to gales
expected. Additionally, pressure gradients will cause increased
winds through the gaps and passes in Southcentral this weekend.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph for the higher elevations, including the
Anchorage Hillside, are likely on Sunday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Monday night)...

Key messages:

 - The extratropical remnants of former Typhoon Halong will cross
   the central Aleutians into the Bering this evening and rapidly
   re-intensify into a powerful Hurricane force low as it heads
   towards Saint Matthew on Sunday.

 - High Wind Warnings are in effect for the Pribilofs and all of
   the Kuskokwim Delta from this evening through much of Sunday.
   Gusts up to 90 mph or higher will be possible for the Pribilofs
   and parts of the Kuskokwim Delta as Halong passes to the west.

 - A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta
   Coast this evening through Sunday evening. Significant storm
   surge of 3 to 6 feet above the normal highest tide line is
   expected with multiple high tidal cycles from late tonight
   into Sunday evening.

Discussion:

The front associated with the stacked, weakening low continuing to
spin off to the east of Kamchatka has now weakened and pushed
east through Southwest Alaska after bringing periods of rainfall
to much of the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest through early this
morning. To the west, gusty southerly winds closer to the low are
persisting behind the front across the western Bering and Aleutian
Chain closer to the parent low.

Otherwise, nearly all attention continues to center on what is
now former Typhoon Halong moving east across the open North
Pacific. This storm is poised to arc north around the stalled out
low near Kamchatka, and should cross over the Aleutians as a
strengthening gale force low by this afternoon. From there,
Halong`s remnant center will undergo very rapid re-
intensification as it begins to phase strongly with a shortwave
trough pivoting into the western Bering Sea and moves into the
left exit region of a 160 kt upper level jet streak nosing into
the eastern Bering around the same time. Halong will become a
powerful Hurricane force low with central surface pressure
bottoming out around 950 to 955 mb as it heads north-northeast
towards Saint Matthew Island from late tonight into Sunday
morning.

The first area to see potential for significant impacts from
Halong will be the Pribilofs, where a sting jet could move
directly overhead as winds top out at or near Hurricane force
late tonight. Wind gusts as the center passes just off to the
west could become extreme, perhaps reaching or exceeding 90 mph as
winds peak during the overnight hours tonight into the early
morning hours on Sunday. Large waves quickly building near and
after the onset of strong winds will also be a concern, with seas
of up to 25 to 30 feet expected early Sunday morning in the waters
surrounding the Pribilofs. Large breaking waves reaching the
shoreline of Saint George and Saint Paul could lead to damage
along the shoreline in addition to the threat of damage from the
extreme wind gusts.

On Sunday, Halong`s center will move quickly north into Saint
Matthew, maintaining a corridor of Hurricane force winds that will
move up from the Pribilofs to the waters between Nunivak Island
and Saint Matthew. Concerns will quickly shift from the Pribilofs
to the Kuskokwim Delta as the center progresses north, with
potential for extreme wind gusts of up to 90 mph to reach
Mekoryuk, Toksook Bay, and Tununak as the center passes to the
west starting early Sunday morning and persisting through Sunday
evening. Wind gusts farther inland towards Bethel will not be as
intense, but will still be as strong as 60 to 75 mph, and still
enough to cause damage to property. Confidence continues to
increase that the storm will track slightly farther east than what
was anticipated over the past couple days, and the outlook for
coastal flood inundation remains a concern as a result of this
track shift. Moderate to major impacts from a storm surge of
around 3 to 6 feet above the normal highest tide line are expected
for communities immediately along the coast as the high winds
arrive starting early on Sunday, including Kipnuk, Kwigillingok,
Kongiganak and Toksook Bay. This surge has the potential to rival
the water levels observed during the impactful fall storm system
that affected much of the Kuskokwim Delta Coast in August of 2024.
In addition, strong southwesterly winds could send a surge of
water up the mouth of Kuskokwim River, potentially leading to
flood impacts as far north as Bethel. Please see additional
information listed in any current warnings or watches in effect
for your area for more specific possible impacts for your
location.

From Sunday night into Monday, things will quickly quiet down for
the time being as Halong exits into the North Slope and Beaufort
Sea. The weak low in place near Kamchatka will continue to drift
east into the Bering, keeping a showery and mildly unsettled
pattern in place for the start of the week.

-JH/AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term forecast begins on Tuesday with weak ridging
building into the Gulf of Alaska. This means that lower chances
for rain and decreased wind speeds will follow. Wednesday will
have a front push into the Gulf from the west, which will allow
for heavy rainfall along the coast as well as gusty winds. The
Anchorage and Mat-Su Valley regions could see downsloping winds
and therefore, lower chances for rainfall. These gusty winds may
push into Prince William Sound, and depending on the track of the
front, could bring strong winds into Anchorage. This scenario has
been showing up in more guidance as time has passed, so it very
well could occur next Wednesday. However, uncertainty remains, so
more refinement will be done in the coming days. Quasi-zonal flow
sets up on Thursday, allowing winds and rain to decrease
intensity. However, lingering rainfall is possible in higher
elevations and along the coast. Friday sees another ridge build
into the Gulf, which would again calm winds down and decrease
chances for rainfall all across Southcentral.

The Bering continues to be active next week as yet another low is
forecasted to move into the Bering from the North Pacific Tuesday
into Wednesday. This low has had much uncertainty in its track
with every day showing sometimes radically different tracks
depending on which models are looked at. The current thinking is
that this low will take a path similar to Halong`s track except
further east with its center eventually moving over Nunivak
Island. This means impacts could be felt further east including
Bristol Bay. Gusty gale force to storm force winds are possible
for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. Communities in the
coastal Kuskokwim Delta may see more coastal flooding impacts
depending on wind direction, wind speed, and storm surge. It is
still too early to understand the full potential of these impacts,
but coastal flooding is possible. Heavy rainfall will also
accompany this low. Zonal flow will set up after the passage of
the low, so a break in active weather is expected for Thursday.
However, it looks like yet another low will move into the Bering
on Friday, potentially repeating the same story as before. This is
quite far out, so the evolution of this event is still very
uncertain. It will be important to monitor the forecast for next
weeks events for updates.

-JAR

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect VFR conditions to prevail for most of the TAF
period. Winds overall will be light and northerly to
northeasterly. By this evening, ceilings lower to around 5000` and
rain showers work into the area as a front moves in from the
west. Some of the guidance brings MVFR ceilings in by 06-09z
Sunday. Rain chances will increase through 18z Sunday.


&&


$$