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FXAK68 PAFC 091326
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
526 AM AKDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Sunday through Wednesday morning)...

An upper-level shortwave and associated surface trough are moving
westward into Prince William Sound this morning ahead of a
surface front pushing east across Kodiak Island. A convergent
southeasterly flow has allowed scattered rain and snow showers to
train from Middleton Island northwest across the Chugach and
Kenai Mountains. A weak deformation band of snow also developed
overnight across the western Kenai, with snow reported for Kenai
and Soldotna. This band is lifting to the north and west, and is
beginning to weaken as of 4am; however, a scattered snow shower
cannot be ruled out for the Anchorage Bowl prior to sunrise.

Elsewhere, a mix of rain and snow is falling over Kodiak Island as
the front advances north and east. Gusty easterly winds are also
accompanying the front, with gales likely around the Barren
Islands later today. For the Copper River Basin, conditions are
likely to remain dry; however, expect low stratus to persist
through at least early afternoon.

The area of main concern through the next 24 hours or so
continues to be along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Turnagain
Arm, where persistent east-southeasterly flow will lead to
upsloping and enhanced precipitation amounts from early tomorrow
through about midday Monday.

While widespread precipitation is expected, the main challenge
continues to be where the rain/snow line sits. With pretty good
confidence that daytime temperatures will climb into the mid-30s
for areas like Girdwood and Seward, and perhaps into the upper 30s
for Portage Valley and Whittier, the question will be (a) how
much snow can accumulate before melting, and (b) will heavier
showers drop temperatures just enough to facilitate higher surface
accumulations? With colder air aloft, surface temperatures will
be the pivotal piece of the puzzle. Generally, we`re expecting any
snow that falls to be wet and heavy, with the potential to mix
with rain. The likelihood of snow accumulation will be highest
early this morning and again late Sunday evening into Monday,
when temperatures will drop from their daytime highs. The envelope
of possibilities is very wide with snow amounts in this area -
our forecast is on the lower end of the spectrum as we anticipate
above-freezing surface temperatures. As such, if temperatures stay
low enough, there could be more snow than what`s currently in the
forecast, potentially in the double digits. Regardless of snow
amounts, expect poorer weather and travel conditions with this
storm.

By Monday morning, a second challenge arises, that of the
placement of a new surface low along the aforementioned front,
somewhere near the Barren Islands. There remains uncertainty as to
how for north this low travels before sliding east into the Gulf.
Currently, a more southern track is favored. This track would
allow precipitation to taper off more quickly along the Kenai
Peninsula late Monday and keep the strongest of the westerly winds
wrapping underneath the low away from Southern Cook Inlet and
Kachemak Bay.

-Chen/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

Currently, the large storm-force low which has brought all the
unsettled weather across Southwest Alaska continues to move slowly
eastward in the western Bering Sea. Its front continues to push
inland of Southwest Alaska this morning. Visibilities has been as
low as one-quarter mile across Nunivak Island and along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast last night into this morning. Conditions
will continue to improve this morning as winds slowly diminish and
steady snow tapers to snow showers. The same story can be said of
Bristol Bay as well. Platinum/Goodnews Bay and Dillingham
experienced half-mile visibility at times last night into this
morning with conditions also expected to improve as the morning
progresses.

A triple-point low near Kodiak Island this morning moves to near
the Barren Islands and Kamishak Bay by this evening. As this low
moves there, it will cause flow to switch from southeast to
westerly through Kamishak Gap and interior Bristol Bay. This will
cause an enhancement to precipitation across this area this late
this morning through the evening hours. While most snow
accumulation will remain confined to the western facing slopes of
the Aleutian Range and Alaska Range, some light accumulation is
possible in and around Iliamna mostly this afternoon into the
evening. This activity will wind down Monday morning with light
showery precipitation leftover in interior Bristol Bay and the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

The large low pressure continues eastward in the Bering through
Tuesday morning before making it to the southern Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN) and dissipating by then. Expect continued off and on snow
showers today through Monday evening for the Western and Central
Aleutians before a ridge builds in. Strong gusty westerly winds
are expected across the Central Aleutians today through Monday.
Falling snow in conjunction with the strong westerly winds could
significantly reduce visibility at times. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued for the Central Aleutians to highlight
this threat. Expect much of the same for the Eastern Aleutians
and southern AKPEN, but somewhat less in the way of wind, and
lasting into Tuesday as the low itself tracks nearby.

A North Pacific low lifts northward and sends its front into the
Western and Central Aleutians by late Tuesday morning. The wind
field, as of now, does not look as impressive with this system as
compared to the system currently in the Bering. There could be
enough cold air in place for precipitation to start off as a
period of snow before warmer air works in from the south Tuesday
evening and changes precipitation over to rain. Moderate to heavy
precipitation continues along the Western and Central Aleutians
into Wednesday as ridging works eastward over the Eastern
Aleutians.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through Saturday)...

An upper level area of low pressure occupies the western Bering
Sea and extends into the North Pacific. A smaller scale ridge
slides across the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska ahead of the low
through Thursday. Several shortwaves ride through the pattern
through the week.

A Western Bering surface low brings areas of mostly snow and gale
force winds across the Central and Eastern Bering, diminishing
Thursday. Rain continues to spread into the Alaska Peninsula,
Kodiak Island and across the Southcentral coasts through Friday.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist. A
front and developing low will induce easterly winds over the
mountains this morning, which may cause some LLWS. However, at
this time the strong easterlies (35 to 40 kts) appear to be above
the 3000 ft threshold. If these winds do occur at lower levels,
they will slowly weaken after 21z, but could still be elevated at
25 to 30 kts for several hours.

&&


$$