919
FXAK68 PAFC 180028
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
Days 1 to 3: (Sunday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

Mostly sunny skies and decreasing wind gusts remain in place
through late tomorrow evening as high pressure builds into
Southcentral. A short wave moves through Southcentral pushing the
high pressure into the Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of the shortwave
moving over SOuthcentral, southwesterly winds will bring up-Inlet
flow Monday evening through late Tuesday morning. Gusts as high
as 20 knots are expected during this time. Rain showers arrive in
the Mat-Su Valley overnight, in the Anchorage Bowl Tuesday morning
and the Copper River Basin and Prince William Sound Tuesday
afternoon. Currently, rainfall amounts in these areas range from a
quarter to an inch during the day Tuesday. Cooler temperatures
will accompany the rainfall with highs dropping from the 70s into
the lower 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
Days 1 to 3: (Sunday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

The forecast remains on track, with few changes since the previous
forecast update. Overall forecast confidence is medium to high, with
lowest confidence regarding the extent and severity of fog.

A low in the southern Bering Sea brings light to moderate rain as
it moves across the Aleutian Islands through Monday evening. As
the low exits south towards the North Pacific, northerly gap
winds increase along the Eastern Aleutians and Southern Alaska
Peninsula through Monday. Also on Monday, a front enters the
Western Bering and moves northeastwards across the Bering Sea
through Wednesday afternoon, bringing southwesterly winds to 30 kt
and light rain.

For Southwest Alaska, upper level shortwave troughs will bring
a slight chance of showers to Kuskokwim Delta through Monday.
Then, a stronger trough will bring more widespread rain chances to
the Kuskokwim Valley for Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, skies will
begin to clear across Southwest Alaska as transient ridging moves
in. This will lead to cooler nighttime temperatures from Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, with overnight lows dipping into the
low 40s and perhaps even into the high 30s for Kuskokwim Valley.
Clearer skies will be short-lived, however, as cloud cover begins
to build back in with the approaching Bering Sea front on
Wednesday.

-ER/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through
Sunday)...

The main weather feature for Southcentral will be a persistent
deep Arctic upper level low-pressure system. Shortwave energy from
this system will begin to sweep across the area, leading to a
period of active precipitation that will continue through the
weekend. High temperatures will remain seasonally average but
widespread cloud coverage will likely keep overnight lows warmer
than normal.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the weather pattern will
undergo a significant change late in the week. A high-pressure
ridge that has been over the Bering Sea will weaken, allowing a
new deep low-pressure system to form. This system is anticipated
to bring a substantial plum of moisture from the Bering Sea into
the western part of the State. By the weekend, this could lead to
heavy rain over portions of the West coast and interior of Alaska.

The European model is favored early on with a transition to the
Ensemble blend towards the end of the forecast period.

-DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through Monday
afternoon. Winds will switch to southerly late this evening.
Turnagain Arm winds expected to increase by Monday evening.


&&


$$