934
FXAK68 PAFC 090121
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 PM AKST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A wide swath of scattered showers is ongoing across the northern
Gulf this afternoon as the stacked low ever so slowly inches
northwards towards Prince William Sound. This low will continue to
weaken over the next 24 hrs and move inland, translating on the
periphery of the ridge. The ridge has been steadily building
across the Copper Basin towards the Talkeetna Mountains and
Susitna Valley, and midlevel cloud cover is trying to scour out.
For areas that do clear out tonight, expect temperatures to drop
lower than they have the past several nights. Areas that do
maintain some cloud cover will be warmer...so could see some
widely varying temperatures that will be dependent on cloud
cover. Coastal areas will see temperatures generally drop into
the lower to mid 30s and see rain or a rain-snow mix.

The next system is already working its way eastwards just south of
the Aleutian Chain. Models are in agreement with keeping this system
south of the of the Eastern Aleutians, but differ on the exact
placement of the upper low center. Several of the models develop a
new surface low to the east of the current low position later
tonight, becoming a more complex low as it moves into the western
Gulf. Satellite imagery seems to agree with this scenario with IR
imagery showing an increasing area of cloud top cooling and water
vapor a more defined dry slot to the east of the parent surface
low. This low looks to remain rather complex as several more
surface lows develop as the overall system moved into the Gulf.
The system will stay in the Gulf with little impacts to inland
Southcentral; however, Kodiak Island and eastern Kenai Peninsula
will see another round of light to moderate precipitation through
the weekend. Gale to storm-force winds will develop across the
western and northern Gulf. Kodiak Island will see easterly to
northeasterly winds increase Saturday night with gusts of 35 to 50
mph possible through Sunday afternoon.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

An active weekend weather pattern is in place for the Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula, while more settled conditions are expected
for communities north of King Salmon.

Wind and precipitation shift this afternoon from the Central
Aleutians to the Eastern Aleutians, Eastern Bering, and Bristol
Bay as the low, currently south of Adak, continues eastward. The
formation of a triple point low south of Cold Bay Saturday morning
will increase winds in the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay before
finally departing for the Gulf on Sunday. Periods of light to
moderate snow starting this afternoon may change to rain on
Saturday, and back to snow by Sunday morning. Winds shift from
easterly to northerly and increase to 40-45 mph with 50-60 mph
gusts through bays and passes primarily of the Eastern Aleutians.
The strongest winds are expected to peak Saturday afternoon and
gradually decrease through Sunday afternoon. The Pribilof Islands
will likely avoid most of the precipitation, but wind gusts up to
40 mph will be possible.

For the rest of Southwest Alaska, locations north of King Salmon
will avoid most of the wind and precipitation with nighttime lows
approaching the teens and single digits as northerly flow ushers
in cooler air.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Starting Monday, the low pressure system that had been moving
through the Gulf will finally be out of the picture- just in time
for a new low to move in. This one, however, looks to take a more
southerly track, keeping Southcentral relatively dry with light
winds. Temperatures will trend cooler, and more inland locations
could see lows in the mid teens by Tuesday and Wednesday night.
Southwest Alaska should see similar conditions, while the
Aleutians will be more affected by this system just to their
south. Here, light precipitation is likely and gale-force wind
gusts are possible.

On Wednesday, some ridging starts to build across western Alaska
ahead of a deep low entering the Bering Sea. There is model
disagreement about the exact track and intensity of this storm,
but it has the potential to be impactful to Southwest Alaska,
specifically the Kuskokwim Delta. Strong southwest winds on
Thursday are the main concern here, and we will have to keep an
eye on how this system progresses in the coming days.

-MB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

&&


$$