797
FXAK68 PAFC 051440
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Points:

- A Blizzard Warning has been issued for Thompson Pass from 6AM this
morning to 6AM Sunday for possible blizzard conditions and 8 to 16
inches of snow. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

-  A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the northern Copper
Valley, northern Susitna Valley, and Tok Cutoff from 6PM Friday to
3AM Monday for possible blizzard conditions.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Copper River
Basin from 5PM this afternoon to 5PM Saturday for 4 to 12 inches of
snow. The lowest totals will be west of Glennallen, and the highest
totals will be south and east of Glennallen.

Discussion:

Our well advertised arctic airmass is quickly pushing southwards
through western and northern Southcentral this morning, as the upper
trough digs southwards across western Southcentral. Temperatures
have been steadily falling from north to south across these areas
with most locations having dropped into the single digits to teens.
Skies have also cleared across these areas, though some low stratus
and/or fog is lingering in some of the typical foggy valleys. Snow
has moved out of the Mat Valley and Anchorage bowl this morning
allowing the Winter Weather Advisory to be cancelled. The band of
snow showers is now pushing south and east across the Kenai
Peninsula as the trough approaches.

Snow remains ongoing across the central and southern Copper Basin
this morning where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.
Highest snowfall amounts will be across the southern Copper Basin
and Thompson Pass areas. The arctic airmass will also surge into the
Copper Basin where temperatures will fall into the minus teens and
20s by Sunday morning and wind chills of -30 to -35 degrees given
persistent northerly winds. The strongest winds will be felt in the
typical north/south gaps where wind lofted snow will pose blowing
and drifting concerns, along with reductions in visibility. As such,
ground blizzard conditions are possible for the Alaska Range passes
beginning today and persisting through into Sunday. Blizzard
conditions are also possible for Thompson Pass where ongoing
accumulating snowfall and increasing winds through the pass will
lead to significant blowing and drifting of snow through at least
Sunday morning.

Across the Mat Valley, Anchorage and greater Cook Inlet region,
conditions will stay mostly dry, but will be cold and quite windy in
some spots through Sunday. Air temperatures will drop from the 10s
and 20s above late Friday down to around 0 to 10 above by Sunday,
and possibly colder for places protected from the gusty north winds.
Wind chill values will likely drop to around -10 to -20 over the
weekend as well, particularly where the winds are strongest across
the Mat Valley, west Anchorage and along much of the Cook Inlet.

The aforementioned arctic trough will slow as it reaches the Gulf
Coast before deepening into a closed low over the northern Gulf this
weekend. This low will keep the coastal areas unsettled as
shortwaves rotate around the trough. With most areas along the coast
dropping into the 20s and lower 30s, several rounds of snow showers
can be expected through the weekend.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Clearer and drier conditions are expected across most of Southwest
Alaska through this weekend along with continued cold
temperatures and gusty winds. Cold air will filter south across
the southern Alaska Peninsula, bringing rounds of snow showers and
gusty winds. This combination is expected to bring periods of
blowing snow along the Alaska Peninsula, primarily from Port
Heiden south. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect to
encapsulate this. The weekend has temperatures remaining in the
negatives in the Kuskokwim regions. The combination of these very
cold temperatures and gusty winds will allow for the potential for
extreme freezing spray from Nunivak Island to Cape Newenham
starting Saturday and lasting through Tuesday. While precipitation
is expected to be nearly non-existant, gusty winds along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast may loft existing, transportable snow,
creating areas of blowing/drifting snow and reducing visibilities
at times. There is currently a Winter Storm Watch highlighting
these possibilities, as some uncertainty remains. This cold air
mass is expected to persist through next week, so more impacts
from the cold could be seen.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term outlook will favor below normal temperatures for
both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska from Monday into the latter
half of next week. An arctic airmass will spill into all of
interior Alaska and the the southern Bering over the weekend.
Below normal temperatures will change little as a trough over the
western Gulf of Alaska brings a North Pacific low close to the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday. This area of low pressure will stay
in place through the latter half of next week. Ultimately, very
cold temperatures across Alaska will result in strong gap winds
from Seward to the Copper River Delta. Northerly flow will bring
in renewed colder temperatures across the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bering Sea by the middle of next week. Precipitation chances will
be below normal due to the drier northerly flow into the state,
but occasional snow showers will be possible along the Gulf Coast.
Additional snow will be possible across the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula, where ocean effect snow chances will increase
through the period.

-BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Early morning snow has moved eastward to the Chugach
Range/Anchorage Hillside. VFR conditions should persist through
the forecast period as colder, drier air moves in from the north.
Winds remain northerly around 10 kts, with gusts increasing to 20
kts after 00Z Saturday.

&&


$$