203
FXAK68 PAFC 080059
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 PM AKDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A deep low west of the Seward Peninsula will bring a front across
the Western Alaska Range tonight, and into Southcentral
throughout the day tomorrow on Wednesday. While Tuesday wound up
being a fair day with lots of clear skies and warmer temperatures
for the region, conditions become more unsettled into Wednesday as
the approaching front tightens the pressure gradient over
Southcentral. In that regard, the forecast is on track with
southerly winds to increase in strength while expanding northward
from the Shelikof Strait into Cook Inlet this evening through
tomorrow morning. Small craft winds with gusts as high as 40 knots
will be possible into the Barren Islands. The Turnagain Arm wind
also returns with 25 to 30 mph southeasterly winds clipping the
southwest side of town. All the usual southeasterly gap wind
location should see a bump in winds with a Knik wind and Copper
River wind both to develop Wednesday morning and persist into
Wednesday evening.

Rain chances will spread from the Alaska Range into the MatSu
Valleys early on Wednesday with the highest chances for
precipitation to remain confined to the north and closer to the
Alaska Range. That being said, rain will also overspread the
Talkeetnas on Wednesday with at least chance pops spanning down
into Wasilla, Palmer, and the Chugach. Regardless of
precipitation, clouds are expected to increase tonight afternoon
highs on Wednesday to range from the low to mid 50s for much of
Southcentral. Conditions clear with the departure of the front on
Thursday, which should result in cooler overnight low temperatures
and temperatures dipping down into the 40s/low 50s for daytime
highs. Expect the pressure gradient also to relax with gusty
conditions to diminish. The one exception will be across the
southern Cook Inlet where small craft winds and higher gusts are
forecast to spill out of the Kamishak Gap and into the Gulf. Winds
will build to gale force from the Barren Islands eastward by
Thursday evening and persist through Thursday night.


-BL

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta
  Coast and Nunivak Island through Wednesday morning.

* Special Weather Statement for strong gusty winds along the
  Southern Alaska Peninsula through tonight.

Discussion:

An atmospheric river containing moderate to heavy rain across
will move eastward across the Eastern Aleutians and the Pribilof
Islands through the rest of this even and make it to the southern
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) by Wednesday morning. Light rain is
along the Southwest Coast will spill over into interior portions
of Southwest Alaska this afternoon and will persist into
Wednesday afternoon. Rain across Southwest Alaska is expected to
taper off through Wednesday evening.

In addition to the rain, strong winds and coastal flooding will
be of concern beginning today for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and
Nunivak Island. Elevated water levels are expected during high
tide cycles. Expect water level rise to be 1.5 to 3.5 feet above
the normal highest tide line. The Coastal Flood Advisory remains
out for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island through early
Wednesday morning. Strong gusty winds will also be likely along
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and inland up to Bethel. Peak winds will
occur this afternoon through tonight. Gusts up to 55 mph are
likely along the coast with 40 to 50 mph inland to Bethel. Strong
gusty southerly winds are also likely along the southern AKPEN
today through tonight. Ranges of 50 to 65 mph are possible along
portions of the Alaska Peninsula, with Cold Bay being the most
favorable are to see gusts to 65 mph. The Special Weather
Statement for strong gusty winds remains in effect through
tonight. Winds diminish area-wide during the day Wednesday.

The next strong front moves over the Western Aleutians Thursday,
bringing storm force winds to the Western Aleutians and western
Bering Sea with wind gusts as high as 70mph possible. Along the
front, anticipate moderate-to-heavy rainfall at times as the front
moves west to east along the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea. The
front is expected to reach the Southwest Coast Friday night and
track inland through Saturday, bringing another round of rain to
mainland Southwest.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Starting off the long term forecast for Southcentral is a ridge in
the Gulf of Alaska. Lighter winds are expected, but with embedded
shortwaves within the ridge taking advantage of a long fetch of
moisture from the south, rainfall is likely for Kodiak Island and
the mainland. There may be some rainfall in the Anchorage an Mat-
Su Valley regions as well, but this is less certain. Sunday has
more shortwaves from a strong low in the west push into the Gulf.
The main plume of moisture arrives this day, increasing rain
chances almost everywhere in Southcentral, including the
Anchorage, Mat-Su Valley, Western Kenai, and eventually the
Copper River Basin. Depending on the progression and orientation
of the moisture plume, higher or lower rain totals will be seen.
Wind speeds will increase as well, with potential for a barrier
jet, but it remains to be seen how strong a jet sets up. Monday
has a strong front move into the Gulf of Alaska, allowing for
small craft to gale force winds to envelop the northern Gulf.
After a small break Monday night, another strong front arrives in
the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday, driving up wind speeds and rainfall
yet again.

Starting over on Saturday in the Bering reveals a strong low
associated with the remnants of Typhoon Halong moving up into the
Bering. Guidance is uncertain regarding its exact strength and
track as it moves up the Bering. If it tracks further east, strong
southerly winds up to storm force could impact the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast, leading to potentially significant coastal flooding.
If it tracks more to the west, little to no coastal flooding
issues would result. Regardless of the track, the Western to
Central Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands should expect storm
force to potentially hurricane force winds with heavy rainfall
through Sunday as the low moves northward. Things become a lot
more uncertain afterwards. Some kind of a low moves into the
Bering, but its track and strength are very uncertain with each
model showing a different solution. This elusive low will be the
main concern for Monday and Tuesday, but the only thing that can
be affirmed is that there will be some gusty winds and rainfall
somewhere in the Aleutians.

-JAR

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected to persist through at least
Wednesday morning. Ceilings will decrease tomorrow as showers
move into the region, but should remain VFR to MVFR. Light southeast
winds will begin to increase this evening with gusts as high as
20 to 25 kts by Wednesday morning. Winds will remain gusty through
Wednesday evening before veering to more southerly.

&&


$$