093
FXAK68 PAFC 141338
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday night)...

A stout upper-level shortwave and associated surface low are
lifting north from the central Gulf toward Kayak Island this
morning. Precipitation is being drawn northward with these
features as they both track northeast. While this low and upper-
level wave will mostly skirt east of the forecast area today as
it heads northeast and moves onshore near Yakutat; however, a
widespread area of rain and mountain snow moving west of the low
will still impact areas across the eastern half of the Copper
Basin as the flow aloft becomes more southerly in advance of a
second upper-level wave moving toward Cook Inlet from Southwest
Alaska. This area of rain and high elevation snow for the eastern
Copper River Basin will move out of the region by this evening as
the first upper-level wave lifts into the Yukon.

The aforementioned upper-level wave over Southwest Alaska this
morning is shifting the flow aloft over Cook Inlet and Prince
William Sound more southerly as the overall long wave trough
becomes more negatively tilted. This has allowed moisture from the
Gulf system to be drawn northwestward back across places from
Valdez, west to Anchorage, and north over the Matanuska Valley
and Talkeetna Mountains. Showers will persist over these locations
through the afternoon as this feature moves east and colder air
begins to advect in aloft. This trough will weaken and lift
through the Copper River Basin tonight, allowing for a transient
ridge to move over the region late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday before the next system of interest arrives towards
midweek.

On Wednesday morning, a strong frontal boundary extending from a
strong low moving south of the Alaska Peninsula will head into
the western Gulf, spreading moderate rain and gale force
southeasterly winds initially into Kodiak Island as it arrives.
The front will progress fairly quickly northeast through Wednesday
evening, reaching the Kenai Peninsula and north Gulf Coast by
Wednesday night. As the front approaches the coast, a corridor of
storm force winds will develop as a barrier jet forms along the
front, with the strongest winds likely to impact areas just to the
south of Cordova and Prince William Sound, and briefly through
the Barrens before the front lifts north on Wednesday afternoon.
Gusty southeast winds and moderate rainfall will also spread into
much of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound region as the
front approaches the coastline. Most of the western Kenai
Peninsula up into Anchorage and the Mat Valley will stay mostly
out of the rain through Wednesday night due to strong cross-
barrier flow and downslope drying; however, places like Palmer,
Wasilla, and Kenai will likely see the development of gusty
northeasterly winds by Wednesday morning due to a tightening NE-SW
oriented pressure gradient steering winds out of the Mat Valley
and down Cook Inlet.

The parent low will drift northeast into the northern Gulf for
Thursday as the front along the coast dissipates, giving way to a
more showery pattern across much of the area.

-AS/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)...

Radar imagery this morning shows numerous scattered showers
persisting across Southwest Alaska as several perturbations
embedded within weak upper level troughing continue to push east
ahead of a transient ridge in the central Bering Sea. Further
west, a look at satellite this morning shows a deepening complex
low in the North Pacific as a digging shortwave phases with a
lifting North Pacific low. These two features will consolidate by
this afternoon, allowing for the storm to rapidly strengthen in
the left exit region of a 160 kt upper level jet streak in the
North Pacific while its gale to storm force front lifts north into
the Bering.

Widespread rainfall and gusty winds will continue to push into
the Central Aleutians through this morning, bringing high end gale
to storm force winds. The low briefly stalls to the south of the
Central Aleutians this afternoon as the central surface pressure
bottoms out at around 960 mb before continuing on its track along
the Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday. The
front will bring similarly strong gale to storm force winds and
rain along the Eastern Aleutians through this afternoon and along
the AKPen this evening through Wednesday morning. Strong
southeasterly wind gusts up to 65 mph will be possible through
favored gaps in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.

Shower activity over Southwest Alaska should begin to decrease
this afternoon as a weak and quick moving ridge moves over the
region ahead of the approaching front. Southerly winds of 15 to 20
mph will begin to pick up this afternoon ahead of the front. The
front eventually pushes into the Southwest Mainland Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning, bringing strong easterly winds of 30
to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph across Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta through Wednesday afternoon. Easterly winds are
not as favorable for coastal flooding, so coastal communities
will likely be spared from significant coastal flooding as the low
affects the region. Elevated water levels may still be possible
during high tide cycles. Strong winds will be accompanied by
light to moderate rainfall, with around a half inch of rain
expected for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast through Wednesday night.

Northwest winds with gale force gusts and showery weather on the
back side of the low will continue for the Eastern Aleutians and
AKPen through Thursday morning as the low tracks towards the Gulf.
This northwest flow and cold air advection behind the low will
bring a change of airmass to the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska
late this week into the weekend, with low temperatures falling to
around freezing by Friday morning.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The extended forecast for the region indicates a continuing
active weather pattern, dominated by a series of deep and fast-
moving low-pressure systems tracking from the Aleutians towards
the mainland. The next significant system will approach mid-week
and could split into two centers: one moving into the Gulf of
Alaska and the other into heading northeast towards Southwestern
Alaska. This splitting may slightly diminish the threat of the
highest for the southern mainland, but the system will still bring
moderate to heavy rainfall across the Alaska Peninsula and the
southern coast. Later in the week, an area of low pressure
developing over the Gulf of alaska will enhance precipitation for
Southcentral Alaska and Prince William Sound. Some lighter rain
and high-elevation snow are also expected to reach farther north.

We are watching for the potential for another powerful cyclone to
arrive near the Aleutians by next weekend. Current model
consensus suggests this system carries an increasing threat for
high winds across the entire length of the Aleutians, potentially
extending into Southcentral Alaska. Given the persistent nature
of these systems, the overall airflow across the state is expected
to remain predominately from the southwest.


-DD

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light rain showers will be possible at the terminal early
this morning, with potential for ceilings to drop to MVFR
intermittently. Showers clear out and ceilings lift but generally
remain below 5000 ft through midday. A slight chance of showers
will persist through the afternoon hours, but generally expecting
VFR conditions to return with ceilings lifting above 5000 ft.
Light southerly winds persist through midnight. Then, there is
potential for a southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind to clip the
terminal overnight, with gusts to 20 kt possible. The Turnagain
Arm wind turns down inlet through Wednesday morning, with winds
most likely to be light out of the north.

Quesada

&&


$$