559
FXAK68 PAFC 140654
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1054 PM AKDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Thursday night)...

Unsettled conditions continue across parts of Southcentral as a
low amplitude shortwave moves up from the Cook Inlet towards the
Talkeetnas this afternoon. At the surface, a rapidly weakening low
is moving up over the Kenai Peninsula, becoming increasingly ill-
defined as it moves near high terrain within the various mountain
ranges across Southcentral. Ahead of the decaying low and
shortwave aloft, bands of rain are shifting up from the Kenai
Peninsula and Cook Inlet into Anchorage, the Mat-Su and Talkeetna
Mountains, but this activity should continue to move north and
diminish as the trough exits later tonight. Behind the low, gusty
west winds are continuing near Kodiak Island, but drier air
ushering in from the west has helped skies clear out and give much
of the area a relatively warm and sunny afternoon.

In terms of the the outlook for the next few days, the overall
forecast in the near term remains little changed. On Tuesday
morning, a new low will spin up ahead of another shortwave trough
lifting north into the Gulf around a persistent high pressure
ridge focused over the Northeast Pacific. This low will mostly
skirt east of the outlook area as it heads north and moves onshore
near Yakutat, but a shield of rain and mountain snow moving west
of the low will still impact areas across the eastern Copper
Basin until the system exits into the Yukon Tuesday evening. A
transient upper ridge will move overhead on Tuesday night,
providing a brief respite in the active pattern before the next
system of interest arrives towards midweek.

On Wednesday morning, a strong frontal boundary extending from a
strong low moving south of the AKPen will head into the western
Gulf, spreading moderate rain and gale force southeasterly winds
initially into Kodiak Island as it arrives. The front will
progress fairly quickly northeast through Wednesday evening,
reaching the Kenai Peninsula and north Gulf Coast by Wednesday
night. As the front approaches the coast, a corridor of Storm
force winds will develop as a barrier jet forms along the front,
with the strongest winds likely to impact areas just to the south
of Cordova and Prince William Sound, and briefly through the
Barrens before the front lifts north on Wednesday afternoon. Gusty
southeast winds and moderate rainfall will also spread into much
of the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound region as the
front approaches the coastline. Most of the western Kenai
Peninsula up into Anchorage and the Mat Valley will stay mostly
out of the rain through Wednesday night due to strong cross-
barrier flow and downslope drying. The parent low will drift
northeast into the northern Gulf for Thursday as the front along
the coast dissipates, giving way to a more showery pattern across
much of the area.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)...

Key messages:

 - A powerful storm system will move out of the Pacific on
   Tuesday. The storm is expected to take a more southerly track
   across the Aleutians Islands and the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty
   easterly winds are now expected which should have a lesser
   effect on water levels for Kwigillingok and Kongiganak than
   previously forecast. However, elevated water levels during the
   higher tide cycle for the aforementioned communities are
   possible.

Water levels continue to decline in the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and
the Kuskokwim River as the aftermath of former Typhoon Halong
continues to be felt. Longwave troughing continues in western
Alaska. Many weak waves embedded in the trough are bringing
scattered rain showers across the Bering and the Southwest
Mainland. Breezy southerly winds are also being seen across the
Bering and into the Kuskokwim Delta. This pattern will continue on
through Tuesday morning, before a strong low moves up into the
Bering.

The low pushes into the Central Aleutians by late Tuesday
morning, bringing high end gale force to storm force winds to that
region. The low becomes enlarges at it tracks into the Bering,
allowing winds and rain to affect a wider area. By Tuesday
afternoon, the low`s front will push into the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula, allowing for gusty winds gale force winds
with higher values likely in gap regions. The Pribilof Islands
will also see gusty winds albeit not as high as the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. The front eventually pushes into
the Southwest Mainland by Tuesday night/early Wednesday, Gusty
easterly winds (30 - 35 mph with gusts of 40 - 45 mph) will affect
the Kuskokwim Delta until Wednesday evening. Easterly winds are
not favorable for coastal flooding, so the communities may be
spared from flooding from this low. Elevated water levels may
still be possible during higher tide cycles. The winds will be
accompanied by light to moderate rainfall. Gusty southeast winds
will also impact Bristol Bay during this time.

Thursday has the back-end of the low move into the Southwest
Mainland. Breezy northwest winds as well as scattered light
rainfall are expected as this occurs. These northwest winds will
bring cooler temperatures from the north. The early morning hours
of Friday will see winds gusting to 30 mph as the main core of
winds push onshore. The weekend will remain cool as a mass of cold
air remains over the Southwest Mainland.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The extended forecast for the region indicates a continuing
active weather pattern, dominated by a series of deep and fast-
moving low-pressure systems tracking from the Aleutians towards
the mainland. The next significant system will approach mid-week
and could split into two centers: one moving into the Gulf of
Alaska and the other into heading northeast towards Southwestern
Alaska. This splitting may slightly diminish the threat of the
highest for the southern mainland, but the system will still bring
moderate to heavy rainfall across the Alaska Peninsula and the
southern coast. Later in the week, an area of low pressure
developing over the Gulf of alaska will enhance precipitation for
Southcentral Alaska and Prince William Sound. Some lighter rain
and high-elevation snow are also expected to reach farther north.

We are watching for the potential for another powerful cyclone to
arrive near the Aleutians by next weekend. Current model
consensus suggests this system carries an increasing threat for
high winds across the entire length of the Aleutians, potentially
extending into Southcentral Alaska. Given the persistent nature
of these systems, the overall airflow across the state is expected
to remain predominately from the southwest.


-DD

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...The moderate rain from this morning should largely push
through the area by 1Z, though cigs and vis are likely to remain
MVFR to IFR due to abundant moisture. A band of precipitation is
expected to develop over the Chugach tonight, but there is a
chance it may move as far west as the terminal, which would
continue lowered cigs and vis. Light southerly winds are expected
to develop after the rain ends this afternoon, lingering through
early tomorrow morning.

&&


$$