872
FXAK68 PAFC 040020
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

Current satellite imagery shows a low south of Kodiak Island. Its
front has pushed northward towards the northern Gulf Coast. Heavy
precipitation is seen along and behind the front as it continues
into the northern Gulf Coast this evening, as seen with over 2.4
inches of rain in Kodiak so far today. Heavy precipitation has
been confined to the coast so far (especially western Prince
William Sound), though, even with downsloping winds and drier air,
some light precipitation has managed to fall in Anchorage and in
the western Kenai Peninsula. Where temperatures have been cooler,
light precipitation has fallen as flurries. The front continues to
tighten a pressure gradient near the coast, which has accelerated
easterly winds to gale- force offshore the northern Gulf Coast,
as well as northerly winds in the Cook Inlet through Shelikof
Strait to gale- force. Winds should be peaking in strength late
this afternoon.

Both the front and the low continue to weaken and move northward
this evening into tomorrow. Winds will slowly weaken throughout
the evening as the pressure gradient weakens. Gale-force winds
persist longest offshore east of Prince William Sound through
tomorrow (Sunday) morning. As winds decrease, the effects of
downsloping also decrease. This coincides with moisture continuing
to stream in, better upper level vorticity moving in, and the low
continuing northward in the Gulf. Chances of precipitation
increase throughout the night for Western Kenai, Anchorage, Mat-
Su, and Copper Basin while persisting for Kodiak Island and the
northern Gulf Coast. Temperatures warm to become closer to
seasonal and snow levels rise up to 3500 ft. This trend continues
through Sunday as the low occludes over the Kenai Peninsula and
dissipates, with likely chances of precipitation across much of
Southcentral. The heaviest rain will be along the northern Gulf
Coast, while lighter precipitation (rain below 3500 feet) is
expected for interior Southcentral.

Another system in the Bering begins to have influence over
Southcentral on Sunday as well as it moves eastward and begins to
absorb the current Gulf low. As the low continues east, cold air
aloft spreads over the Gulf. With warmer low level temperatures
from this weekend`s system, some instability looks to be in place.
With some lift ahead of the next low, A few isolated thunderstorms
may occur in the Gulf beginning late Sunday evening (20-30 percent
chance). These conditions remain in place through Tuesday as the
low slowly moves from the Bering to Kodiak Island on Monday, then
to the northern Gulf on Tuesday. The next low reinforces rainfall
Sunday night as moisture from the original low remains in place.
The most persistent rain will be along the northern Gulf Coast,
with more isolated to scattered and showery precipitation (thus
lower chances for precipitation) inland. These conditions look to
remain similar through Tuesday as the low moves eastward.


PA

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A 970 mb Bering low continues to make its way across the Aleutians.
A broad, occluded front extends well east of the low just off the
coast of Southwest. An elongated ridge will keep most of the
clouds from building in Southwest and Alaska Peninsula. A few high
level clouds are making it into the Alaska Peninsula from outer
bands of a Gulf low.

The occluded front will begin to weaken this afternoon with south
to southeast winds diminishing before reaching the Southwest
coast of Alaska. The more substantial winds are forecast behind
the front, as the parent low slides just north of Adak and Atka,
which will bring them Westerly gales with gusts up to 50 kts this
afternoon and evening. The south side of the low will be aided by
a very strong 300 mb jet before the jet drops south of the
Aleutians and the parent low continues across the southern Bering
Sea.

In addition to winds, widespread showers are forecast over the
Aleutians and much of the Bering as the low and front push east
through Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
southern end of the front as it tracks over the Western and
Central Aleutians on Saturday, and also beneath the center of the
low where temperatures aloft will be cooler.

By Sunday, what remains of the front will push into the western
Gulf of Alaska. It is important to note that Unalaska will gust
to 50 mph before the low reaches Bristol Bay. Lingering showers
will continue across the Bering and Aleutians as the low pressure
center reaches the Alaska Peninsula. Northerly flow develops
behind the low with precipitation gradually clearing out over the
Bering into Monday. Meanwhile, precipitation chances will increase
over Southwest Alaska, especially south of the Kilbuck Mountains
into the Greater Bristol Bay region, as moisture and upper-level
support move into the region. Warmer temperatures from southerly
flow will preclude snow chances for all but the higher elevations.

By Monday, high pressure moves into the Bering, causing winds to
diminish region-wide and precipitation to clear out over
Southwest Alaska as the low pressure shifts completely into the
Gulf of Alaska. A ridge begins to build over the Aleutians west of
Unalaska Tuesday, bringing low stratus clouds and fog.

SS

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The active pattern continues across Southern Alaska, the Bering
Sea, and Aleutians through the long term. A strong North Pacific
low approaching the western Aleutians Tuesday will be the primary
focus heading into the period. Winds and precipitation begin to
increase across the western Aleutians Tuesday into Tuesday night
before spreading farther east across the Aleutians and Bering
Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence remains moderate to high (70
to 80 percent) that this system will impact the region, but lower
confidence (30 to 40 percent) in the exact track and magnitude of
the strongest winds. Small changes in the low track will
determine where the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation
occur.

Across the Aleutians and Bering, winds and precipitation increase
Wednesday as the low deepens and its front progress eastward.
Widespread precipitation and strong winds are expected to expand
across the Aleutian Chain and Bering through Thursday. The low is
then expected to gradually weaken as it moves farther into the
Bering Friday into Saturday, though periods of gusty winds and
precipitation will likely persist across portions of the region.

For Southwest Alaska, relatively quieter conditions Wednesday will
give way to increasing winds and precipitation as the front
approaches from the west Wednesday night into Thursday.
Precipitation is expected to spread into the Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest Alaska Thursday into Friday. Coastal impacts will also
be monitored, particularly along the Southwest Alaska coast,
where strong and persistent onshore flow could result in elevated
water levels and potential coastal flooding. Confidence remains
moderate (50 to 60 percent) in the overall evolution of the
system, but lower (30 to 40 percent)in the magnitude and location
of any coastal impacts given continued uncertainty in the exact
low track.

Across Southcentral, the Gulf low responsible for the early-week
wet pattern gradually shifts east Wednesday into Thursday.
Steadier precipitation along the north Gulf coast and Prince
William Sound will transition toward showers, with more scattered
activity farther inland. Attention then turns west as the Being
system and associated front approach late in the week. Confidence
is moderate (50 to 60 percent) that moisture reaches Kodiak Island
eventually Kenai Peninsula and Southcentral Friday into Saturday,
though confidence remains lower (30 to 40 percent) in the timing
and precipitation amounts as uncertainty in the parent low track
persists.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...An approaching front will increase northerly winds the rest
of today which will then persist into Sunday. VFR conditions are
expected to persist through tonight even as showers move into the
vicinity with east-northeast winds aloft bringing enough cross-
barrier flow to downsloping winds. This should remain the case
until Sunday morning when the winds aloft diminish and deeper
moisture increases the chance for rain and lower ceilings. With
that, MVFR ceilings are more likely (40 to 60% chance) towards the
end of the TAF period Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Any
heavier showers that make it across the terminal could also reduce
visibility down to MVFR.

&&

$$