342
FXAK68 PAFC 112355
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 PM AKDT Sun May 11 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low pressure system in the Bering Sea is currently sending a
front toward Southcentral Alaska. Cloud cover is visible on
satellite imagery encompassing Kodiak Island and nudging in over
Cook Inlet and the southern Kenai Peninsula. This front will be
amplified by an upper level shortwave trough combining to bring
widespread precipitation and breezy conditions to the entire
region tomorrow. Southeast gaps and higher elevation locations
will be gusty, but overall wind magnitudes are not too strong. A
weak ridge pushes in on Tuesday, decreasing winds and shower
potential by mid morning. Clearing skies and partly sunny
conditions will be possible through Wednesday morning. By this
time a shortwave trough spinning up from the North Pacific will
bring gale-force winds and precipitation to the southern Gulf and
Kodiak Island. This wave will push north and bring similar impacts
to the mainland Southcentral coastline starting Wednesday night.
Strong easterly flow and downsloping should allow for inland
locations to stay mostly dry, but expect cool and cloudy
conditions across the area.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1
through 3/Tonight through Wednesday)...

An unseasonably strong storm system is tracking northward across
the central Bering Sea this afternoon, passing west of the
Pribilof Islands. The low will soon fully occlude, meaning it
will be at its strongest over the next few hours or so. A strong
frontal system is spreading out north and east across the bering
Sea and toward the Southwest Alaska coast. Widespread rain and
strong and gusty winds are being observed across the region. Of
particular note, southerly gap winds across the Eastern Aleutians
and southern Alaska Peninsula have reached 50 to 55 kt (57 to 63
mph). The weather started out sunny and warm across interior
Southwest AK today, but clouds are increasing as the frontal
system nears the SW coast.

A strong upper level jet stream and short-wave trough will drive
the surface front onshore of Southwest AK this evening, then
inland overnight through early Monday morning. This will lead to
widespread gusty winds and rain, moderate at time. The front will
move fairly quickly, so the worst conditions will generally won`t
last longer than about 6 hours. A High Surf Advisory remains in
effect and on track for high water and potential beach erosion
along the Kuskokwim Delta coast during the high tidal cycle on
Monday. A combination of cold unstable conditions behind the front
and upper level short-waves rounding the low center will lead to
showers and gusty winds across the region through Monday.

While the current low weakens over the central Bering Sea Monday
through Wednesday, a couple other lows will approach from the
Pacific. The first will be a weak low approaching the central
Aleutians on Tuesday, with an uptick in winds and another round
of rain for the Central to Eastern Aleutians Tuesday through
Tuesday night. A deeper low will approach the Alaska Peninsula
Tuesday night through Wednesday, with a leading frontal system
lifting northward into Bristol Bay. Expect strong and gusty
easterly winds across the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay
along with areas of rain.

-SEB

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term period looks to stay mainly active from the Bering
Sea, The Gulf of Alaska, and the southern mainland. A broad trough
across the Bering Sea will extend eastward into the Gulf Thursday
and into the weekend as the trough digs southward with time.
While there is good agreement synoptically with upper-level
pattern, there are still questions and uncertainties regarding
surface features. There is lots of ensemble spread with regards to
surface low pressure centers Thursday through Sunday across the
Bering Sea and Gulf. This will have implications on both the
precipitation forecast as well as the wind forecast across both
areas and locations that are inland. However, there is reasonable
agreement between operational guidance and the ensemble suites
that upper- level ridging will develop across the Western
Aleutians/western Bering Sea Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will likely prevail through early Monday
morning. Rain will spread up Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula
Monday morning with increasing rain chances after 12Z. The
Turnagain Arm wind likely clips the terminal Monday morning with
southeasterly winds accompanied by showers, which may cause a drop
to MVFR conditions. Rain showers expected much of the day Monday
then gradually dissipating Monday evening.

&&
$$