474
FXAK68 PAFC 261349
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday Night)...

Radar imagery shows precipitation spreading northward into
Southcentral Alaska along and ahead of a weakening front lifting
northward through the Gulf of Alaska. As of early this morning,
precipitation has primarily been limited to the eastern half of
the Kenai Peninsula, with Homer also receiving light rain. The
Kenai Radar (PAHG) has detected returns across the western Kenai
north through Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley, but low-level dry
air and downsloping winds have limited the majority of
precipitation from reaching the ground in these areas.

As we progress into the day and the remainder of the weekend,
several shortwave troughs embedded in broad cyclonic flow aloft
will rotate into Southcentral Alaska. This will ultimately
reinforce rain and high elevation snow across the Gulf from Kodiak
Island north through the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound. Most areas lee of the mountains will remain dry, though
cannot rule out an isolated shower or two. Snow levels across the
eastern Kenai will generally generally range from 1,200ft at night
to 2,000ft during the day. Given this, snow or a rain/snow mix
may fall as low as Turnagain Pass, though accumulation isn`t
anticipated at road level. For Thompson Pass, snow levels will
remain at or below top- of-pass level, but overall precipitation
will be limited enough that no significant snowfall is expected.

By Sunday night, models are converging on a solution featuring a
deep trough swinging northward across the North Pacific with rapid
cyclogenesis of a low as it heads into the Gulf of Alaska.
Depending on the track of the low, this may bring small craft to
gale-force winds across the northern waters of the Gulf as the
barrier jet sets up. Meanwhile, broad cyclonic flow will continue
from southeast Alaska into Southcentral, with a series of troughs
likely to rotate through across the mainland. This would place
much of Southcentral in southwest flow regime and a more favorable
setup for a dreary, rainy start to the work week.

-Brown

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through
Monday)...

A broad low pressure system centered in the eastern Bering Sea
swings a series of weak fronts into Southwest Alaska today,
bringing periods of light rain. These fronts will be weaker than
the front that lifted through Southwest Alaska yesterday, meaning
that precipitation will be more downsloped, with the most steady
rain on the upslope side of the Ahklun and Kilbuck Mountains,
impacting Dillingham and interior Bristol Bay to the north.
However, a fairly unstable atmosphere will allow for the
development of scattered rain showers across much of Southwest
Alaska during the afternoon and evening. As the fronts weaken and
push inland overnight, expect continued rain shower activity as
the low center lifts toward Nunivak Island. Showers continue
through the weekend, with the best chance for light snow during
the coolest temperatures of the each night near the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and Nunivak Island. The remainder of the area sees
only rain through Sunday. Cooler air filters in aloft behind the
low as it lifts into the northern Bering Sunday night, bringing
increased chances for snow to mix in with rain showers. There is a
brief break in precipitation, with decreased precipitation
chances on Monday with a transient ridge passing aloft. Then, a
front from a new low tracking along the Aleutians moves in Monday
night, bringing initial chances for light snow. Southeasterly
winds will be relatively benign, save for some enhanced flow
through Kamishak Gap into Interior Bristol Bay through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through
Monday)...

A broad low pressure system over the eastern Bering Sea will
slowly weaken through Sunday night. Its most notable impact will
be around an inch of snow for Saint Paul tonight, with likely
lesser amounts for Saint George. Winds will be relatively benign
across the Bering Sea. No gales are expected until Sunday, when a
new North Pacific front moves over the western/central Aleutians.
The strongest winds should remain on the Pacific side of the Chain
as the low rides along and south of the Aleutians through Monday.
The front brings light to moderate rain to the central Aleutians
Sunday night before pushing into the eastern Aleutians for Monday.
Relatively cooler air aloft streams south across the Bering Sea,
leading to scattered rain/snow showers heading into next week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, an extensive upper level low meanders
around the Eastern half of the Bering through the forecast period.
A number of shortwaves flexes the low`s positions from day to
day, and helps maintain the instability across the Aleutians,
Alaska Peninsula and Western Alaska. The low is pinned in place by
ridges over the Arctic and Western Canada into Interior Alaska.
the main storm track remains to the South of the Aleutians through
the week. Forecast guidance anchored by the ECMWF hold the larger
features through the period, even with the GFS a bit fast and the
Canadian model a tad slow. Greatest uncertainty rests in the
smaller details moving through the pattern.

Leading off on surface weather, a closed low over the Southern
AKPEN extends a front along the Pacific side of the AKPEN, over
Kodiak Island and across the Southcentral coast to the Canadian
border with widespread extended period moderate rain for Wednesday
through Friday. Snow is expected over Bristol Bay and Southwest
Alaska, changing to rain on Wednesday. Inland Southcentral will
see a mix of rain and snow as the low tracks along the front in
the Gulf of Alaska through Friday. In the West, a well developed
low and front push into the Western Aleutians late Wednesday with
locally moderate rain. Moderate to locally heavy rain spreads
along the Aleutians to the Southern AKPEN by Friday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions persist. Another southeasterly Turnagain Arm
wind will develop Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts should remain at
22 to 27 mph, but there is a possibility that they could briefly gust
over 30 mph. Weaker low level wind shear is possible in the
morning hours before the Turnagain Jet sets up as aloft winds
increase.

&&


$$