231
FXAK68 PAFC 091251
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Steady, stratiform rain is expected to spread along the coast
ahead of an approaching gale-force front in the southwestern Gulf
of Alaska. Periods of rain showers are possible further inland,
though the bulk of the precipitation is expected to be primarily
along the coast. The front reaches Kodiak Island first, bringing
easterly winds and rain this morning and persisting until late
Thursday evening. Gale force winds will track north across the
Gulf setting up a Barrier Jet along the north Gulf coast with a
corridor of storm force gusts. The front begins to weaken Thursday
night, diminishing the gusty winds and producing drier conditions
for much of Southcentral. The north Gulf coast is expected to see
light rain through the end of the week. Inland areas may continue
to see rain showers along the Talkeetna Mountains and Wrangell
Mountains and drier elsewhere.

&&



.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Weak ridging in the Southwest Interior will continue to slowly
erode as a weak front moves southeastward this afternoon. A slow
moving low in the Central Aleutians will continue to bring rain
and gusty winds across the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through
tomorrow before entering the Gulf of Alaska. As the low pressure
system advances farther east, instability over Southwest Alaska
will diminish, decreasing the likelihood for thunderstorm
development over the area late this week into early this weekend.

In the Bering, the slow moving low in the Central Aleutians
continues to bring southeasterly winds to the Eastern Aleutians
and eventually to the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula this
afternoon and evening. This low will also continue to spread light
to moderate rainfall across the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as
it progresses. The greatest chances for rain showers in the
Alaska Peninsula and areas along the Bristol Bay coastline is
Thursday. In its wake, northerly winds and drier conditions will
prevail. Areas of fog are expected in the Pribilof Islands,
coastal SW Alaska, and portions of the Central Aleutians to the
Alaska Peninsula this morning and tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long term begins with a broad longwave trough over the Bering
and Gulf with 3 to 4 shortwaves embedded within it. Over the
Mainland, a strong ridge extends from the Chukchi Sea southeast
into Southcentral. Through Tuesday the trough will shift east over
the western half of the state and the Alaska Peninsula while a
stout ridge develops over the AlCan, Yukon Territory and BC. The
transition of the pattern from Saturday to Tuesday is messy,
particularly with how the troughs will interact with the Interior
ridging. Over the weekend we`re looking at a showery pattern over
Southwest and over the mountains of Southcentral. Moving into the
start of the work week next week models indicate a potentially wet
system developing in the north Pacific and moving into the
Southern Mainland. With the amplification of the pattern, there
will be a tropical tap to the moisture moving north, so some areas
will receive some moderate rain. Right now there is a large
meridional spread in the storm track with varied impacts
throughout the region. Additionally, there is a signal for a broad
southwesterly flow to set up in the Bering, which may bring
concerns to the Southwest coast. We will continue to monitor this.

-CJ

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions to persist through the period. Gusty
Turnagain Arm winds out of the southeast will change little
through this afternoon with frequent gusts over 25 knots.

&&


$$