004
FXAK68 PAFC 161258
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Thursday through Saturday night)...

The storm-force front that brought a myriad of active weather to
Southcentral yesterday has now pushed onshore and has weakened. In
response, the winds have settled down from their peak yesterday,
with winds this morning around 15 to 25 kt across most marine
areas. A few locations are still are still seeing occasional wind
gusts, specifically through Thompson Pass and across the
Matanuska Valley, but even these wind gusts should wind down
quickly this morning.

Behind the front, precipitation precipitation has become showery
in nature, due to the cooler and more unstable airmass moving over
the Gulf in its wake. Numerous showers will continue to lift
northward into Prince William Sound and along the coastal
mountains through the day as a surface low moves into the western
Gulf and the broad upper-level trough stalls over the Kenai
Peninsula.

The surface low then stalls near the entrance of Prince William
Sound on Friday as the larger upper-level trough elongates and
stretches from the northern Gulf down to the Alaska Peninsula.
This will help keep showers across the northern Gulf into the end
of the week along with gusty northerly and westerly offshore gap
winds along the immediate coast.

The bigger challenge in the short term will be the extent of
precipitation across Cook Inlet and into the Anchorage Bowl and
Mat-Su Valleys late Thursday night into Friday morning and again
into Friday night and Saturday morning. Guidance is beginning to
show a wake trough moving over Cook Inlet, spread light
precipitation from north of Kenai into the Matanuska Valley for
early Friday morning. Just as this system departs and a transient
ridge builds in for Friday afternoon and evening, a second wave
moving east from the Kuskokwim Valley brings another round of
precipitation. There is still uncertainty with both features;
however, conditions may be trending a bit more cloudier and
unsettled for locations west of Prince William Sound through the
remainder of the week. Any increase in cloud cover will also
affect overnight low temperatures, keeping some places a touch
warmer than initially expected. That said, the system coming in
late Friday into early Saturday will be ushering in colder air
aloft. Thus, if any precipitation does develop, it may fall for a
time as snow along the upper hillside of Anchorage.

TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Thursday morning through Saturday)...

An occluded and weakening low pressure system is exiting the
region just south of Kodiak Island with a surface trough extending
westward across the Bering Sea. Satellite imagery shows wrap
around clouds/moisture generally from the Pribilof Islands
southeastward into the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.
Nighttime microphysics imagery depicts an area of fog drifting
southeastward along this axis as well. Aloft, a shortwave trough
is traversing over the central Bering Sea and is driving eastward
with time. Gale force winds will linger through this afternoon for
typical gap locations along the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Although a secondary surface low will move from the
Western to Central Aleutians through today, impacts will remain
low as models are in sound agreement that the strongest winds will
remain well offshore and to the south across the North Pacific.
As the first low moves farther away and out of the region, its
swath of northwesterly small craft winds in its wake will become
tugged closer to the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Some of the higher end
wind guidance has an area of borderline gales for this area this
afternoon/evening. That said, the wind direction is not really
favorable to further enhance coastal flooding for the Kuskokwim
Delta coast from ex-Halong.

The global models and short range guidance are in fairly good
agreement that the shortwave mentioned above will move into the
Kuskokwim Delta region late tonight. The upper level dynamic
forcing combined with a surface trough/potential meso low will
support convective precipitation for this region starting early
Friday morning. Most of what falls will likely be in the form of
rain as temperatures will be a touch too warm for snow for much of
the morning and afternoon hours. As the system quickly exits
Friday night and temperatures begin to fall closer to freezing, it
is possible for places like Bethel that any lingering moisture
could precipitate out as a brief rain/snow mix or a few flurries.
Meanwhile, to the west, weak surface troughing remains in place
with several weak, compact lows developing across the Bering Sea.
By Saturday afternoon, 500 mb heights show a broad, positively
tilted longwave troughing pattern encompassing the entire western
domain. The aforementioned surface low affecting the
Western/Central Aleutians will continue its trek eastward across
the North Pacific through Sunday morning, steadily deepening as it
does so as it aligns favorably with the upper trough.

The GFS, EURO, and Canadian came into remarkable agreement today
that a new storm system arrives to the Western Aleutians Monday
morning and generally moves eastward across the southern Bering
Sea. Being that this system is almost 5 days out, there is time
for the global models to change their tune, but it certainly is
nice to see this degree of consistency so far ahead of time.

-AM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Multiple areas of low pressure move through the North Pacific and
into the Gulf of Alaska the second part of the weekend into early
next week. These bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the
Aleutians, Kodiak Island and coastal areas of the Gulf of Alaska
and Prince William Sound. Though exact the placement of these
lows remains inconsistent, confidence remains moderate that they
will travel a more easterly path as the overall wind flow turns
more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
morning with a chance for light scattered rain showers. Light
rain and lower cloud ceilings below 5000 ft move in later this
afternoon. Ceilings and visibilities are expected drop to MVFR
late this evening.



&&


$$