622
FXAK68 PAFC 021358
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

We start the week with a surface low centered near the Copper
River Delta and heading northward into the Copper River Basin. The
transit across the Chugach Mountains will weaken this low though
areas in the southeastern Copper Basin and over the Wrangell
Mountains are expected to see some snow with this system today.
West of this low there is a large area of clearing from the
Talkeetna Mountains to Susitna Valley and Southward over the Kenai
Mountains. T he Matanuska Valley, Anchorage, Turnagain Arm and
western Kenai Peninsula are under an inversion strong enough for
the development of low stratus clouds and areas of fog. The fog
and stratus can be seen well on the nighttime microphysics
satellite imagery and these low clouds are packed in over these
areas in what would otherwise have been a clear morning.

Heading into tonight, a broad shortwave trough aloft will lift
across Southcentral as the trough axis aloft reorients over
Western Alaska. This could provide enough lift to produce some
light showers for the Cook Inlet region. Temperatures will be
cooling with the light southerly flow as cold air streaming across
the Bering Sea wraps back north around the trough axis, meaning
that temperatures will cool across Southcentral. As a result,
these showers are increasingly likely to be in the form of snow
and bring some light accumulations to parts of the Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys tonight into Monday.

Beyond that point, weak warm advection and moist air flowing off
the Gulf into Southcentral will combine with a digging upper-low
over Southwest Alaska to provide a more focused band of snowfall.
There is low confidence in the placement of this feature at this
time, but depending on where it sets up and how quickly or slowly
it moves, some location in the vicinity of Cook Inlet could see
training snow showers bring multiple inches of snow. At this
point, this looks most likely to set up somewhere over the Kenai
Peninsula Monday into Tuesday, but this is subject to change.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

The strong and persistent northeasterly winds that have plagued
the west coast of Alaska and Alaska Peninsula (AKPen) for the last
week will finally begin to slowly weaken through early next week
as a Gulf Low dissipates near Prince William Sound. Until then,
convective rain/snow mix showers will continue to stream down
across the eastern Bering Sea and into Alaska Peninsula. A weak
low over western Interior will provide enough support for snow
showers to be move over the Kuskokwim Delta and Interior Kuskokwim
River Valley tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain cold
enough for precipitation to fall as snow, but a relatively dry
atmosphere will keep any accumulation light. Weak high pressure
moving across the Aleutian Chain will push into mainland Southwest
by Sunday night, helping diminish winds and keep the region
generally dry.

Farther west, a series of low pressure systems will impact the
Western and Central Aleutians with rain and periods of gale force
winds through Tuesday night. These storm tracks will ride the
upper level jet, forcing them to dive south across the Aleutian
Chain and into the North Pacific just west of Unalaska.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Areas of precipitation persist across Southwest as a remnant low
dissipates northward across the western part of the state Wednesday.
A low in the northern Gulf pushes into Southcentral Thursday
afternoon, while an upper level trough extends from a low over the
Bering Strait and south across the Alaska Peninsula. Interaction
between these features over Southcentral could create a snow
producing deformation across the region.


Looking to the western Bering on Friday, models are still
producing a variety of solutions with a low approaching the
Aleutian chain Saturday morning, but within the realm of possible
outcomes is a 955 mb low pressure system producing widespread
gales and areas of storm force winds late Saturday into Sunday.
The GFS keeps this system on the Pacific side of the Aleutians as
it transitions into the Gulf, while the ECMWF and GEM bring it
into the Bering.



&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...High pressure over the region will contribute to
predominantly VFR conditions and light winds through the period.
However, a thin layer of fog is present over the terminal this
morning due to an inversion at the surface. Intermittent IFR to
LIFR conditions are possible, mainly before 18z when the inversion
finally begins to weaken.

BL

&&


$$