020
FXAK68 PAFC 071352
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Quiet weather prevails for Southcentral Alaska as a ridge axis
remains near Kodiak Island and across Southwest Alaska. There is
less high cloud cover compared to 24 hours ago with cirrus moving
from northwest to southeast across the northern Susitna Valley and
Copper River Basin. Elsewhere is mostly clear. A patch of low
stratus and fog is near Fire Island, but with very weak northerly
flow, is spreading toward the Kenai and Soldotna areas this
morning. Little change in the weather is expected Friday for all
of Southcentral.

Southeast winds and chances for precipitation will increase
Saturday for Kodiak Island. Precipitation could begin as snow or a
mix for Kodiak City before warmer air transitions it to all rain
by late Saturday afternoon or evening. Slight chances of
precipitation may begin to spread east through this weekend along
the windward side (southeasterly flow) of the Kenai Mountains,
Kenai Peninsula, and western Prince William Sound. Snow and rain
becomes more likely along the Kenai Gulf Coast with Seward seeing
precipitation as soon as midnight Monday morning. However, this
forecast could change slightly as high pressure across mainland
Alaska could suppress this precipitation and delay rain chances.

rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...

A stout upper ridge remains over the Southwest mainland and
eastern Bering but is beginning to retreat as a large and
elongated upper low slowly retrogrades east. This ridge has kept
conditions stable with clear skies, calm winds and cool
temperatures across Southwest Alaska, with areas of fog
persisting.

Meanwhile, the western and central Aleutians continue to see rain
and gale-force winds as a north Pacific surface low and its
associated front push north across the chain. Tightening pressure
gradients are also starting to bring gusty winds to the eastern
Aleutians and portions of the Alaska Peninsula as the low`s front
lifts north, reinforcing the ridge`s eastward retreat and clearing
the Bering by Saturday morning.

The active pattern across the Bering continues as a storm-force
North Pacific low drives a powerful front into the western
Aleutians by early Sunday afternoon. This system will rapidly
spread gale-force winds across the entire Bering and Aleutian
chain through Monday. Meanwhile, a compact low tracking into the
Alaska Peninsula has trended slightly slower in recent guidance,
now expected to cross Sunday night. As it interacts with the large
and stretched out frontal boundary of the storm-force low, winds
along the Kuskokwim and Bristol Bay coasts will be further
enhanced, increasing the potential for coastal flooding,
particularly along the Kuskokwim Delta coastline. However, shore
fast ice remains a limiting factor for significant flooding. Warm
air will arrive with these systems, so precipitation will start
out as a mix of rain and snow before becoming all rain by Sunday
afternoon.

-ME

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday Through Thursday)...

The high amplitude upper level weather pattern across Alaska
undergoes some slight changes during this forecast period, but
retains its shapes. A well developed low over the Western
Aleutians weakens and retreats into the Russian Far East through
midweek. Several shortwaves continue to support areas of active
weather across the Aleutians and Bering through Thursday. These
shortwaves also help weaken the upper ridge over Mainland Alaska
and the high center moves into the Arctic, but the areal bulk of
the ridge remains in place. a deterministic blend of ECMWF / GFS /
Canadian carries the large scale features, with decreasing
uncertainty with the development and continuity of small scale
features.

A decaying front pushes heavy rain and gusty winds across Kodiak
Island and portions of the Alaska Peninsula on Monday through
Wednesday. Areas of gale force winds are expected over Bristol Bay
and the Eastern Bering, moving North of Nunivak Island for
Tuesday. Less intense rain spreads into the Kenai Peninsula and
Southwest Alaska, diminishing late Monday. On its heels, a second
front moves over the Central Aleutians and Bering, bringing
moderate rain as it moves into Southwest Alaska, AKPEN and Kodiak
Island through Wednesday and diminishing Thursday. Its associated
well developed surface low center brings heavy rains and gusty
winds across the Western Aleutians and Bering before peeling off
towards Kamchatka on Wednesday. Mainland Alaska`s relatively
quieter weather continues through midweek.

- KZ

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions may occasionally be interrupted by fog over
Cook Inlet this morning. What fog has developed remains south of
Fire Island and is drifting south. Otherwise, high pressure to
persist over Anchorage with calm winds and largely clear skies
this afternoon and evening.

-BL

&&


$$