Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
301 FXAK68 PAFC 010206 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 606 PM AKDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... There is still plenty of uncertainty with regards to the near term forecast. Timing of features has occurred a bit faster and more moist than originally expected. Challenges over the next 24 hours include with how much rain Kodiak will receive. Latest models have hinted at less precipitation as the bulk moves more north into the southern Kenai Peninsula, so location of the front is variable over the western Gulf. Winds have also been a bit tricky with timing and variableness with cloud cover thickness is inhibiting sea breezes near Valdez and eastern Prince William Sound. Farther inland, scattered thunderstorms have developed over the eastern Alaska Range. Slightly more isolated thunderstorms are located over the Wrangells and the Talkeetna mountains. Those thunderstorms should diminish overnight and the chances for lightning will be highly unlikely over the next few afternoons. Some weak troughs could pass through Southcentral, though instability is less favorable. There will be plenty of residual moisture over the area through Monday though and scattered rain showers will be likely. Chances diminish Tuesday however from southwest to northeast as a ridge spanning from the Bering Sea, across the mainland of the state builds in and helps to suppress the North Pacific/Gulf low southward. Higher terrain could hold onto some of the lingering showers, especially near the Wrangells on Tuesday afternoon and night. Overall however, most places can expect drier and less windy conditions. Wednesday will remain similar to Tuesday as the ridge continues to build, but there are are some differences with the location of the axis of the ridge. Will it be more north over the Alaska Range or south over the Gulf coast. The next factor to follow, that comes into play will be an embedded arctic trough that sweeps from west to east beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In particular, how deep the trough sinks into the ridge and influencing moisture and winds into Southern Mainland Alaska and the timing of when it impacts Southcentral. rux && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Cloud cover moving through the Kuskokwim Delta and Alaska Range today will continue into this evening. The scattered rain showers will taper off overnight to isolated rain showers tomorrow. Satellite imagery and radar show a low south of the Central Aleutians continues to cause rain showers, clouds and fog to the Alaska Peninsula and coastal areas of the Southwest today. Widespread rain showers will persist through tomorrow morning as southerly to southeasterly winds ahead of the low continue. Stronger gap winds can be expected on the northern edge of the Aleutians and Kenai Peninsula ranging from 20 to 30 mph through this evening. Satellite image also shows a trough causing cloud cover and fog over the Western Aleutians. These clouds and fog will move over the Central Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands this evening. The trough will move eastward overnight replaced by a ridge of high pressure. Unfortunately, the ridge will keep fog, low clouds and periods or rain showers through mid-week in the Aleutians, Pribilof Islands, the Alaska Peninsula and coastal areas of the Southwest as the ridge of high pressure builds and deepens over the Aleutians through mid-week. DJ && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... A pattern change is looking to be underway, but pinpointing what will happen is proving to be difficult beyond day 5 (the end of the workweek). What we do know is that by Thursday, low pressure that has been working across the AKPEN through the week, will continue to track deeper south into the Pacific. Strong ridging will build in across the western Alaska, nosing in across the Alaska Range and western Anchorage. This ridge will slowly drift south into the weekend. What that means is that the nice weather at the start of the week will likely shift to more of a cooler, cloudier and potentially wetter one. Long range ensemble guidance helps to clue us in on how things will shake out, but there are wild differences between the ensemble and operational guidance after day 6. What we are seeing is the first `wet` system moving in from the Bering around the holiday timeframe. The second into the middle of the weekend. Details should (hopefully) become clearer as the week pushes on. && .AVIATION... PANC...General VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southeast winds out of Turnagain Arm should return this evening with southeasterly gusts up to 25 knots before gradually relaxing in the overnight period. && $$