043
FXAK68 PAFC 240057
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 PM AKDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave trough riding along the western periphery of the
elongated ridge building across southern Alaska has kicked up some
showers across the Susitna Valley and lower Cook Inlet this
afternoon as the associated front approaches. Most of the Susitna
Valley showers have dissipated as they move east and encounter
drier air. Showers are having a better time hanging in there
across the southern Cook Inlet and points southwest as they remain
in a much better environment. While showers will have a tough
time today, increasing southerly flow will help to moisten the
column and allow showers a much better environment tomorrow
afternoon and evening as a few weak impulses translate through
the flow. Once again, showers should remain primarily confined to
the Susitna Valley and Talkeetna Mountains, but a few may be able
to work down towards the Mat Valley and upper Cook Inlet area.

As the pressure gradient tightens over the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains tonight, the gap winds in the typical Southcentral
locations, such as the Turnagain Arm and Copper River, will pick up
and remain gusty over the next several days.

Looking towards the workweek... mid and long-range models still in
agreement with upper trough digging across the Bering and down
towards the North Pacific by midweek, however, it appears this
system has slowed down slightly. Some of the coastal areas along the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island will see precipitation
chances increasing Tuesday, but now the better chances for heavier
precipitation looks to be Wednesday into Thursday. It is still a bit
out there in time, so will continue to see how models start to
resolve the timing and precipitation over the next several days.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

An elongated upper-level ridge extends up from the North Pacific
across the central and eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and
into southern mainland Alaska this afternoon. To the west, broad
low pressure sits over the far western Bering Sea, with a front
and strong plume of moisture driving up across the western
Aleutians into the western/central Bering Sea. Underneath the high
pressure, fog and low stratus prevail, though strong low-level
southerly flow and mixing from daytime heating have opened up a
gap of clear skies from the central Aleutians northward into the
Bering. A weak frontal system with light rain showers is also
exiting the Alaska Peninsula into the western Gulf of Alaska.

The strong tropical Pacific moisture tap currently surging
northward across the Western Aleutians and western Bering, with
between 1.0 to 1.5 inches of precipitable water, will slowly push
east across the Bering Sea this weekend into early next week.
Light to moderate rainfall reaches the Pribilof Islands, the central
Aleutians, as well as Nunivak Island and the northern Kuskokwim
Delta Coast by Sunday morning. Out ahead of the main front, a weak
low-level disturbance will take advantage of a moist atmosphere
with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and onshore flow to
promote rain showers along the Alaska Peninsula, up through
Bristol Bay and into portions of the Western Alaska Range
beginning late tonight.

On Sunday, a low pressure system spins up in the North Pacific and
tracks into the central Bering Sea. This feature will bring
enhanced, moderate to heavy rain across the Western Aleutians
through Sunday evening. As the low slides north along the front,
moderate to heavy rain spreads into the Kuskokwim Delta by Monday
morning, along with a fetch of southerly gale-force winds. These
gusty winds will be fairly brief, however, diminishing below
gale-force Monday evening as the low lifts into Norton Sound.
Lower than normal tides should help preclude any significant
coastal flooding from occurring during this southerly push on
Monday and high tides in the communities of Kipnuk and
Kwigillingok are not expected to approach or exceed 2 feet above
the normal highest tide line at this time. However, elevated wave
heights (4 to 8 feet) are likely in the coastal waters of the
Kuskokwim Delta along with moderate to heavy rain.

Out ahead of the approaching low, upslope shower activity shifts
north into interior Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Delta.
However, the heaviest rain falls with the front, which lingers
over the Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes through Tuesday. While
the exact areas of heaviest rainfall are still uncertain, subject
to the exact evolution of the orientation of the front over the
next several days, some locations are likely to see 2 to 3 inches
of rain during the period from Sunday morning through Tuesday. The
most likely location for these higher end totals is across the
northern coast of Bristol Bay through Kuskokwim Delta coast with
lower rainfall amounts elsewhere, though model solutions vary.
There is uncertainty with how long the moisture tap lingers over
Southwest Alaska, but rain looks to continue for the region into
mid-week.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Tuesday to Saturday)...

SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS: A front associated with a Bering Sea low moves slowly
eastward allowing for southwesterly flow to prevail across the
area. Heavy rain and strong winds are expected through next
weekend as these southwest winds bring an atmospheric river to the
region. A longwave trough combines with this front as the Bering
low retreats to the Bering Strait mid-week, enhancing the
rainfall in the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Rainfall will
become heavier in Southwest Wednesday and Thursday. As the front
moves eastward, a ridge builds into the area toward the end of
next week.

Elsewhere: Rainfall from this atmospheric river reaches Kodiak
Island by the end of the week bringing heavy rain and gusty winds
to the Island. This rainfall spreads over the remainder of
Southcentral into the weekend though amounts will vary.

&.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. Confidence in the return of
southerly winds out of Turnagain Arm has decreased, but a short
period of winds gusting as high as 20 kts remains possible this
evening. Winds weaken overnight, but gusty winds return by
tomorrow afternoon.

&&


$$