865
FXAK68 PAFC 260012
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Uneventful conditions are expected to continue across many of the
inland areas of Southcentral through this weekend, while rain
showers continue across the north Gulf coast and Kodiak Island.
Southeast flow across the Gulf may promote a few showers making
it into the southeast Kenai Peninsula near Homer.

The pattern shifts on Monday as models are pointing towards an
upper-level trough lifting north across Cook Inlet. Rain showers
and/or snow showers (at higher elevations) will spread to the
remaining portions of Southcentral: western Kenai, Anchorage, Mat-
Su Valleys, and the Copper River Basin. There may be a brief lull
in rain/snowfall on Tuesday, though there is decent consensus
that a second trough and associated surface low move across the
Gulf. This solution would result in continued widespread
precipitation across Southcentral and Kodiak Island through
Wednesday afternoon at least.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Sunday night)...

A broad upper level low pressure over the Bering Sea will keep the
southwest Mainland in an active pattern through the weekend.
Despite both the upper/lower level low pressure being in a
weakening state, an embedded shortwave trough will rotate over the
mainland, keeping rain in the forecast through Sunday. The most
likely places will be windward sides of the Aleutian Range, Alaska
Peninsula, and the Wood River Mountains. Higher elevations could
see light accumulating snow. Otherwise, downslope flow will take
a bite out of rain altogether or reducing it to very light
sprinkles. Southeasterly winds will be relatively benign save for
some enhanced flow through Kamishak Gap into Interior Bristol Bay.

MTL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through Sunday night)...

A broad low pressure system over the eastern Bering Sea will
slowly weaken through Sunday night. Winds will be relatively
benign across the Bering Sea. No gales are expected until late
Sunday night when a new north Pacific front moves over the
western/central Aleutians, the strongest winds should remain on
the Pacific side of the Chain. That system looks to ride along and
south of the Aleutians through early next week.


MTL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, an extensive upper level low meanders
around the Eastern half of the Bering through the forecast period.
A number of shortwaves flexes the low`s position from day to day,
and helps maintain the instability across the Aleutians, Alaska
Peninsula and Western Alaska. The low is pinned in place by ridges
over the Arctic and Western Canada into Interior Alaska. the main
storm track remains to the South of the Aleutians through the
week. Forecast guidance anchored by the ECMWF hold the larger
features through the period, even with the GFS a bit fast and the
Canadian model a tad slow. Greatest uncertainty rests in the
smaller details moving through the pattern.

Leading off on surface weather, a closed low over the Southern
AKPEN extends a front along the Pacific side of the AKPEN, over
Kodiak Island and across the Southcentral coast to the Canadian
border with widespread extended period moderate rain for Wednesday
through Friday. Snow is expected over Bristol Bay and Southwest
Alaska, changing to rain on Wednesday. Inland Southcentral will
see a mix of rain and snow as the low tracks along the front in
the Gulf of Alaska through Friday. In the West, a well developed
low and front push into the Western Aleutians late Wednesday with
locally moderate rain. Moderate to locally heavy rain spreads
along the Aleutians to the Southern AKPEN by Friday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The southeasterly Turnagain
Arm wind with gusts should keep going through the evening and
diminish some overnight. It is expected to develop again Saturday
afternoon and may be a little stronger than it is today.

&&


$$