278
FXAK68 PAFC 101343
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
543 AM AKDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Early morning satellite imagery shows that the trough progged to
drop southwards across west-central AK is steadily moving inland.
Models are still in good agreement that it will track towards the
northern Susitna Valley by this evening before dropping towards
Prince William Sound and onwards towards the Panhandle. Scattered
showers have redeveloped this morning from the western Kenai
Peninsula north into the Mat-Su Valley as lift increases ahead of
the front that is just off to the west. Showers will be maximized
over the northern Susitna Valley and along the Alaska and Talkeetna
Mountains this morning as the front moves in. A secondary round of
more showery precipitation will accompany the upper low as it moves
through the Susitna Valley later this evening. While an isolated
thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out, skinny CAPE profiles
in Bufkit suggest limited instability and it is doubtful that we
will see enough of a break in cloud cover this morning to bump up
instability. Elsewhere, intermittent, light showers will be
possible this morning and again this afternoon and evening.

Precipitation will push eastwards into the Copper River Basin by
Monday morning. While much of the basin will see scattered showers,
lightning chances look best over the northern half of the basin.
Precipitation will move out of the Basin by Monday evening with
shortwave ridging building in behind. This will allow for a rather
nice day for much of Southcentral on Tuesday and into Wednesday.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

A weak surface low with a strong upper-level component centered
along the west coast of Alaska continues to spread a cooler
airmass across Southwest Alaska, bringing low temperatures in the
mid to low 40s this morning. An embedded shortwave rotating around
the upper low is producing a band of light rain which is dipping
south into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley this morning. This band of
precipitation will sweep eastward and lift into the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley by midday, returning dry conditions with mostly
sunny skies to Southwest Alaska. Another cool day is forecast with
high temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s, and clear skies
tonight will likely bring some locations down into the 30s.
Temperatures rebound somewhat as transient high pressure builds
into Southwest Alaska on Monday, keeping the dry regime in place.

High pressure in the eastern Bering Sea today promotes continued
stratus, though the colder air mass aloft has lifted ceilings
somewhat and alleviated the region from fog. Later today, much of
this stratus looks to mix out along the Alaska Peninsula and in
the eastern Aleutians, which should allow for a mostly sunny day.
Where the colder air aloft`s influence does not extend, along the
central Aleutians, areas of fog are present. However, a Kamchatka
low extending a front across the western Bering Sea and across the
western Aleutians tracks eastward today, pushing the front into
the central Aleutians, which will scour out the fog and replace it
with light to moderate rain, gusty southerly winds, and the
potential for an isolated thunderstorm. A corridor of gales
develops further north in the western Bering Sea, which shifts
into the north-central Bering tonight.

The Bering front progresses eastward across the Pribilof Islands
Monday morning and reaches the Kuskokwim Delta coast by Monday
afternoon. Roughly around the same time, it appears likely that a
North Pacific low tracks to near the central Aleutians and
reinvigorates the southern portion of the front. This has the
potential to extend gale force winds across the length of the
front from the central Aleutians, across the Pribilof Islands, to
the Kuskokwim Delta coast. However, the evolution of this low has
shifted to keep more of the energy focused further south, along
the Aleutians, which should prevent a prolonged push of gale
force winds onshore of the Kuskokwim Delta.

The coastal flooding concern remains low, but non-zero, for the
communities of Kipnuk and Kwigillingok. Water levels are not
likely to exceed 2 feet above the normal highest tide line during
the Monday or Tuesday afternoon high tides. However, the prolonged
southerly wind could lead to localized erosion due to rough seas
along the coast.

The front pushes inland over Southwest Alaska Tuesday night,
leading to fairly widespread rain showers. Meanwhile, gusty
westerly winds and relatively cooler air begin to overspread the
Bering Sea.

CQ/TM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Upper- level troughing across the Bering Sea and western Alaska
stretches from the Arctic down to the Alaska Peninsula at the
start of the long term forecast period. The wave of moisture
moving across western Alaska will get pushed into Southcentral on
Wednesday as a triple point low forms south of the Kenai
Peninsula, bringing moderate precipitation to the southern half of
the state. Cool temperatures aloft could result in some of the
high peaks of the Talkeetna and Chugach mountains receiving their
first termination dust of the season. Model guidance deteriorates
greatly as this feature progresses into the eastern Gulf on
Friday, but a generally quieter weather pattern should settle in
across most of the state by the end of the week. Expect near
normal temperatures with highs forecast to be generally in the
60`s.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period.
There is a chance for ceilings to dip into MVFR Sunday morning
with scattered showers. Up-inlet and Turnagain Arm wind will
increase through 00Z then subside. Peak gusts up to 27 knots
expected.


&&


$$