487
FNAK71 PAFC 030324
FWSAER

Spot Forecast for Nelchina Glacier Fire...SOA DOF
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
724 PM AKDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 AKDT on July 02.
.DISCUSSION...

An isolated wet thunderstorm will remain possible through around
10 PM this evening, although the bulk of any strong convective
activity now looks to remain north and west of the forecast area.
Scattered showers are still possible this evening through early
Thursday morning given the prevailing east-northeasterly flow
aloft following the upper-level wave moving through the Copper
River Basin this evening. Thunderstorms are not expected for
Thursday, although an isolated rain shower may develop for late
afternoon or early evening. Scattered showers along with the
potential for an isolated wet thunderstorm returns for Friday
afternoon and evening.

In addition, expect fairly warm and dry conditions, with min RH
values between 35 and 40 percent, to persist through Friday.
There will likely continue to be a spike in south to southwest
winds during each afternoon, especially out of the Nelchina River
valley.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) through late evening
then becoming mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Scattered rain showers through early morning
Thursday. An isolated thunderstorm possible
through 10 pm tonight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent through around midnight then diminishing
to 20 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 10 mph through late this evening.
Becoming southwest winds 6 to 9 mph by midnight.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Mixing height.......Around 2600 ft AGL this evening falling to around
500 ft AGL by early Thursday morning.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the west around 8
                    mph by midnight and through Thursday morning.
Pcpn amount.........0.02 inches.


.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) early in the morning.
Becoming partly sunny (50-60 percent) by around noon.
Isolated rain showers early in the morning and again
by late afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph early in the morning
 becoming variable around 5 to 8 mph by late morning
through early afternoon. Then becoming south-southwest
6 to 12 mph by late afternoon through late evening.
Mixing  height......Around 500 ft AGL in the morning rising to around
4300 ft AGL by mid afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 6 mph shifting to the east in the
    late morning and early afternoon, then shifting to
the south around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.


.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......Around 4300 ft AGL in the afternoon falling to around
400 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....South around 5 mph shifting to the west 6 to 9
                    mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.


.FRIDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY)...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Isolated.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph in the morning
                    becoming variable around 5 to 8 mph by early
afternoon. Then becoming south-southwest
6 to 12 mph by late afternoon through late evening.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Around 400 ft early in the morning rising to around
6000 ft AGL by mid afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 8 mph shifting to the northeast 7 to
                    12 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.


$$
Forecaster...Markle
Requested by...Jered Kemp
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516889.3/AER
.DELDT 07/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL daniel.white@alaska.gov,lonnie.cawston.mtf@colvilletribes.com,fireinalaska@yahoo.com,jered.kemp@alaska.gov,akacdc@firenet.gov